335
FXUS63 KMPX 120512
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1212 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy Sunday with scattered rain showers. However, widespread,
  soaking rain is not expected.

- Cooler temperatures to start the new week.

- A semi-active pattern sets up with additional rain chances mid
  and late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Visible imagery reveals increasing cloud cover across western
Minnesota and mostly clear skies across easter Minnesota & western
Wisconsin. Cloud cover has limited our temperatures across W MN,
which in turn has kept the RH values in the 30 to 40 percent range.
Elevated fire weather conditions remain possible through the early
evening hours. Highs this afternoon will reach the mid to upper 60s
for the CWA. Southeasterly winds have ramped up this afternoon.
Western MN has seen sustained values near 20 MPH and gusts to 30-35
MPH. Tonight`s low temperatures will only cool into the 50s due to
the uptick in cloud cover & warm air advection.

For Sunday, temperatures will warm into the 70s ahead of the
approaching cold front. Southeast winds remain gusty, 15-25 mph
sustained, with gusts up to 30-35 mph. Hi-res guidance depicts
development of multiple rounds of scattered showers along & ahead of
the surface cold front. This activity will travel east into our area
with rain chances increasing Sunday afternoon here in the Twin
Cities metro and Sunday evening in W WI. This will not be a
widespread soaking rainfall. Both ensemble & hi-res guidance only
produce 0.1 to 0.25" for those lucky enough to receive a shower.
Most locations may stay dry to a trace of precip. There is a chance
for slightly higher amounts in far W MN, but not enough to produce
any additional impacts. Winds turn to the northwest behind the front
and a surge of drier, cooler air will arrive just in time for the
new work week.

High temperatures will be near climatological average for the start
of the week. Highs in the 60s on Monday & 50s on Tuesday before
rebound back to the 60s for the rest of the period - likely 10+
degrees above normal by Friday. The culprit will be a positively
tilted trough digging into the West Coast and the response will be an
impressive ridge that builds into the Plains & Upper Midwest by mid-
week. Some scattered showers are possible Tuesday night tied to the
surge of WAA & moisture advection ahead of the western trough. The
best chance for any organized rainfall arrives Thursday & Friday. A
surface low will form lee of the Rockies & track into from the
Central Plains into the Northern Plains before wrapping up over the
Canadian Prairies. The NBM has kept PoPs in the 30 to 60% range
given the spread in guidance this far out. For those hoping for a
taste of Fall or an early taste of Winter - the extended range
doesn`t offer any sustained threat of cold air in the central CONUS.
This pattern seems to sustain itself until a Pacific jet extension
late month, which is not a cold signal either. So what? That means
we`ll likely have to wait until November before we even think about
the potential of snow.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Scattered showers still look possible across western and central
MN during Sunday morning. This activity will be within the warm
air advection and diffluence ahead of the approaching cold
front. Have maintained PROB30s or prevailing showers at most MN
terminals, though only minor impacts are expected. The best
opportunity for rain is when the cold front pushes west to east
through the region late Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening.
Numerous scattered showers (and perhaps maybe a thunderstorm)
are possible along the front. Unless thunderstorms occur, VFR is
still expected with cigs dropping to 3500-5000 feet at frontal
passage. After the front moves through, cigs should rise rapidly
as cloud cover begins to break. South-southeasterly LLWS is
expected for a few hours during this morning at AXN and MKT
underneath an LLJ. South-southeasterly surface winds will
increase into this afternoon with sustained values of 15-20
knots and gusts to 25-35 knots (highest values in western MN).
Once the front passes, winds will switch to westerly and slow to
near 10 knots.

KMSP...Maintained PROB30 for chance of showers from 17-21Z but
best chance of rain looks be from 01-05Z with the frontal
passage. Southeasterly winds will increase to near 15 knots with
gusts to near 26 knots this afternoon. Winds switch to west-
northwesterly near 05Z tonight.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G20kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NE 5-10kts.
WED...VFR. Wind E 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...CTG