992
FXUS63 KMPX 280601
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
101 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple chances for rain over the next week with some
  thunderstorms possible tomorrow.

- Above normal temperatures favored to continue into early
  November.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 106 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Today and Tomorrow... The main area of WAA today has been
focused more across southern Minnesota today. The lack of WAA
and continued cloud cover and ample moisture has allowed for
cool temperatures to continue across western and central
Minnesota. This has even had areas of fog hold on into the
afternoon hours. As the trough continues to develop to our west,
850mb flow will become southerly across more of Minnesota and
Wisconsin. This will increase our WAA and we will also see
additional moisture advect in. With this additional moisture
cloud cover will likely persist which will limit how warm we can
get. Should still be able to get into the 60s with the chance
for some lower 70s still possible. This WAA should allow for the
motion of the broader air mass in such a way this it allows
enough Fgen for a warm front. This front will be a factor in
thunderstorm development tomorrow. ML CAPE looks to build during
the day tomorrow reaching up to around 1000 J/kg in the
afternoon/evening based on current guidance. This combined with
favorable vertical shear profiles has increased chances enough
that SPC has added in a marginal risk for tomorrow. As for
severe modes, all are possible. The low level shear looks great,
but storms could end up mostly elevated and it would be hard
for them to take advantage of this. If we can get a surface
based storm a tornado could occur. If the storms stay elevated
this will stay more of hail risk. Overall this seems fairly
conditional and storms could be quite pulsey. In the end it will
all come down to how much surface heating we can get. If we
under perform on temperature it will be unlikely for us to see
any longer lived surface based storms. The other airmass will be
the cooler air that starts to travel east later in the day
tomorrow. This will create a cold front and will be another
forcing mechanism for us tomorrow.

Thursday and Friday... Thursday we will behind the cold frontal
passage and surface high pressure will move in. The airmass will
be cooler, but this higher pressure will finally provide the
setup for a return of the sun. Temperatures look to be in the
50s mostly on Thursday as daytime heating somewhat counters the
cooler airmass. Friday looks to be similar day to Thursday as
the high pressure moves out. The best rain chances at the moment
look to stay to our south.

This weekend into early next week... A larger scale system looks
to be moving across the CONUS this weekend. Deterministic storm
tracks now favor areas to our south and this is reflected in the
ensemble QPF trends as well. Won`t say that we will be dry, but
the trend has been moving lower. Still could see especially
southern Minnesota seeing some rain from this. It is more so
going into early next week on Monday/Tuesday that is better
chance right now. All deterministic global models take a deep
surface low right across the north central CONUS. There remains
a lot of spread to determine what sector we`d be in and what the
impacts will be, but this is the one to keep an eye on for this
period. Saturday temperature wise looks to be more 50s. Sunday
could start to be warmer with WAA ahead of this next system
buoying us into the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Low stratus has spread across the region at initialization time,
resulting in mainly MVFR ceilings with some pockets of IFR. Some
mist/drizzle will be more miss-than-hit through the overnight
hours, hence keeping visibility at 6sm or greater, thus the
flight category will be driven by ceilings which look to
generally remain within the MVFR category for much of this TAF
duration. A round of rain with embedded thunderstorms is
expected to push across the area this afternoon-evening,
particularly for central-eastern MN into western WI. Some
gusty/breezy winds with sharp directional changes are possible
with the passage of these storms, along with brief downpours
which could push visibility into IFR range. Once the precip
ends, steady clearing is expected along with winds veering to SW
and W with diminishing speeds.

KMSP...MVFR conditions to prevail through sunrise, and though a
small duration of VFR ceilings may well develop later this
morning, MVFR ceilings will return for the afternoon hours in
advance of the expected RA/TSRA. Timing of the main line looks
to be near the afternoon push, in the 4pm-7pm timeframe. Some of
the storms may contain frequent lightning, heavy downpours,
gusty winds and hail. Once the storms clear out to the east of
MSP, winds will shift from S to W with speeds in the 5-10kt
range.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.
SAT...Chance MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 5-10kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...JPC