798
FXUS63 KMPX 021805
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1205 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread soaking rain today trough Wednesday. Amounts near
  an inch along I-90, with higher amounts to the north and
  west.

- Highs in the 60s today and Tuesday will fall back into the
  40s and 50s the rest of the week.

- Additional minor rain chances return for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1140 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A large, slow moving system will bring
widespread rain today, with on and off rain showers lasting through
Wednesday, and possibly into Thursday. No significant impacts are
expected. The highest rainfall amounts near 3 inches are near
Alexandria MN, and this will be more of a soaking rain to recharge
the dry conditions. The only flooding concerns would be from ponding
of water where leaves clog up the drains.

The first wave of this rainfall is driven by a surge of low level
theta_e advection ahead of a upper level PV anomaly within a
longwave trough. This will bring most locations the majority of the
rainfall as it lifts northward today. The lack of instability is the
limiting factor on severe weather, but a few rumbles of thunder are
possible. Meanwhile, strong southeast wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph
should remain just below wind advisory criteria.

Overnight, the steady rain will lift north, and the winds will
decrease as another PV anomaly rounds the base of the longwave
trough, leading to cyclogenesis across the Ozarks. This wave will be
impacted by the northern stream ridge, and how these two features
interact will determine where the rain falls Tuesday through
Thursday. The current thinking is that the longwave trough will lift
up over the Upper Mississippi River Valley and stall out, with the
deformation band forming most likely west of I-35, on Tuesday, and
rotating across the region on Wednesday. This means the highest
rainfall totals continue to be across western and northern
Minnesota, but the rest of us will still see clouds and scattered
rain showers from Tuesday through Wednesday, and possibly into
Thursday.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A brief area of high pressure will build in
across the region from west to east on Thursday, but clouds and
showers could be slow to exit the area. Friday should be dry and
cool with sun, but another clipper system will move in from the
northwest Friday night into Saturday and bring clouds along with a
chance for rain on Saturday. This will be a small, quick-moving
system that should exit the region by Sunday allowing drier weather
to move in for the start of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1140 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Widespread MVFR to IFR conditions across the region this
morning as an area of moderate rainfall moves northeast through
much of Central and South Central Minnesota/North Central
Wisconsin. This main band of rainfall will continue to push off
to the northeast with precipitation becoming more scattered
through the afternoon. Expect CIGs to remain largely IFR with
some occasional patches of LIFR late overnight across Central
Minnesota. Have kept patchy drizzle/mist in at most sites with
saturated low level conditions expected to continue through the
evening and much of the overnight hours. Chances for rain
increase yet again through tomorrow morning ahead of the cold
front, especially for areas along and east of the I-35 corridor.
Rain chances and lower visibilities were introduced for some
sites due to high confidence in this rainfall.

A cold front is expected to work its way through the area
overnight causing winds to shift from a more southeasterly
direction to the northwest through the morning hours. All sites
will see gusty conditions this afternoon with many seeing these
gusts drop off through the period, though some will see the
gusts continue to a lesser degree.

KMSP...Off and on rainfall through mid afternoon with more
scattered showers by late afternoon/evening before the next
round of steadier precipitation develops late tomorrow night as
a secondary low pressure forms over MN. Winds will be
predominantly out of the SE this afternoon and gusty. More
southerly this evening then shifting to the SW/W/NW overnight.
Although initially CIGs will be IFR, conditions will likely
improve with the frontal boundary before dropping once again
late tomorrow.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED... -RA/MVFR, Chc IFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts
THU... VFR, chance AM -SHRA/MVFR. Wind N 5-10 kts
FRI... VFR. Wind NE 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...WFO ARX/Barendse