816
FXUS63 KMPX 270103
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
803 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat indices are on track to reach 105-110 through this
  afternoon. An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect.

- Severe storm chances are highest this evening across portions
  of western Wisconsin, but there is still some uncertainty in
  how far west storms develop. Wisconsin remains in a severe
  risk level 3/5 with the remainder of Minnesota at a 2/5.

- Heat continues with highs in the low 90s through mid week, but
  dew points are expected to fall into the 60s.

- Storm chances return late in the forecast period

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 744 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

00z KMPX sounding had over 4000 j/kg of muCAPE, but a stout
capping inversion at about 900mb and a lack of forcing means we
have an atmosphere with lots of potential, but no key to unlock
that potential. We`re seeing a storm initiat near Hayward, WI,
just before 8pm with another cluster of storms north of Duluth.
The main forcing can be seen on water vapor imagery with the
drying moving across the Canadian border, which should result in
more robust convective coverage in northeast MN in the next
couple of hours. For the rest of tonight, the MULI (most
unstable lifted index) has been showing a pool of LIs below -10
from the western arm of Lake Superior south into northwest
Illinois. This is also near where the 12c isotherm resides at h7
and is expected to be the train tracks for where we have a
preferred corridor for storms to travel this evening, This
really only puts our far eastern CWA (Rice Lake to Eau Claire)
under the risk of convection. For the rest of our area, it looks
like our gobs of instability will remain capped, though the
last few runs of the WoFS shows some potential for storm
initiation down by Albert Lea, so we can`t completely throw in
the towel on the severe risk for the rest of the night, but for
those hoping to see a little rain for their increasingly parched
yards, it looks like your yard will stay parched.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Before 11am, heat indices in southeastern Minnesota have already
climbed into the upper 90s thanks to dew points pushing 80.
Further west, it`s quite a bit cooler following last night`s
thunderstorms. Some cloud cover is also playing into this, but
clouds will continue to clear and allow temperatures to warm
quickly into the mid to upper 90s by early afternoon. We`ll have
no trouble seeing apparent temperatures top 100 area wide with
readings near or above 110 possible across southern Minnesota.
These temperatures and dew points will contribute to a very
unstable airmass with CAPE values topping 3000 J/kg. However,
models continue to show 700mb temps somewhere around 13 to 14C
which would help to limit convection. The main focus for severe
weather later today will likely lie across Wisconsin, where
damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threat. As
mentioned in the previous discussion, if 700mb temps do end up
being a degree or two cooler, we could see things evolve further
west across Minnesota. CAMs have pretty consistently been
showing storms firing in the Arrowhead and tracking into
northern Wisconsin as an MCS this evening, so confidence remains
highest for our easternmost Wisconsin counties. SPC did
introduce a large enhanced risk (level 3/5) that includes pretty
much all of Wisconsin with the slight risk area still extending
back into western Minnesota. Did a morning PoP update to raise
precip chances (10-20%) CWA wide to keep messaging with SPC more
consistent.

Heading into Monday, highs will be in the 90s again, but we`ll
see winds switch around to the northwest, allowing some drier
air to work into the region. This will help tamp down heat
indices a little, but readings in the mid to upper 90s are still
possible across our south. Went ahead and expanded the Heat
Advisory from just the Twin Cities metro to include southern
Minnesota and portions of western Wisconsin. By Wednesday, the
axis of the 500mb ridge will extend up through the Dakotas. A
shortwave along the top of this ridge will move across the
eastern Dakotas/Minnesota sometime late Wednesday/early
Thursday, which brings in our next round of precip chances. The
timing of this feature will impact whether or not we see strong
to severe storms on Thursday. Looking ahead, some low precip
chances remain in place with highs in the upper 80s to start the
month of August.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

We`re still in a wait-and-see mode for how storms over northern
MN evolve. We`re really waiting on a shortwave moving into the
northwest corner of MN to help kick off more robust convection
in the next couple of hours. Current expectations fall in line
with the HRRR in the sense that we`ll have a favored corridor
for convection from Duluth into central WI overnight. This
means EAU is our one airport that has a TS threat that rises to
the point of supporting a prob30. Otherwise, the only thing
driving forecast groups this period is a wind shift for a cold
front that will move across the area Monday morning, turning the
winds from the south over to the NW and N.

KMSP...You can`t completely rule out TS tonight, but it`s
looking more and more likely that storms tonight will pass well
east of MSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
THU...VFR. TSRA likely in evening. Wind SSW 5-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for Anoka-
     Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-Dakota-
     Douglas-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-
     Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-
     Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Redwood-
     Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Steele-
     Stevens-Swift-Todd-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright-
     Yellow Medicine.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for Anoka-Blue Earth-Brown-
     Carver-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Le
     Sueur-Martin-Nicollet-Ramsey-Rice-Scott-Sibley-Steele-
     Waseca-Washington-Watonwan.
WI...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for Barron-
     Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-
     Pierce-St. Croix.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MPG
DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...MPG