989
FXUS63 KMPX 032040
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
340 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Late this evening and tonight...Western Minnesota could see
  strong to severe storms. The main threat is damaging wind.
  The line will dissipate as it moves into central Minnesota.

- Thursday afternoon/evening...Conditional threat of storms.
  This depends tonight`s convection. Large hail and severe
  winds would be the main risks.

- Friday...Storms may linger across the region, though
  confidence on overall coverage is low and depends on how
  Wednesday to Thursday plays out.

- This Weekend...Dry Saturday, with small chances for rain
  lifting up from the south on Sunday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Late this evening and tonight...scattered thunderstorms will
move into western Minnesota, and could produce some damaging
wind.

The latest water vapor imagery a few subtle low-amplitude
shortwaves embedded in weak southwest flow. Surface obs showed
southerly winds across the region, with a highs climbing into
the low 80s across the region. However, surface moisture was
limited, with dewpoints in the 40s along I-35, but upper 50s
across western Minnesota. This thin layer of moisture explained
why the MUCAPE matched the SBCAPE in the SPC analysis, compared
to a sharp decrease in the MLCAPE.

A few storms were ongoing across the Dakotas, and these are
expected to increase in coverage this evening. Latest guidance
keeps the storms west of the MN/SD line until 8 or 9 pm, and by
this time the instability will be on the downward trend. For
that reason, confidence is high in scattered thunderstorms late
this evening, with a few storms producing hail and wind as they
enter Minnesota. These storms should transition to more of a
line, but the weak wind profile and marginal thermodynamic
environment suggests that storms will weaken as the move
eastward. This should be a lower-end severe weather event not
uncommon for early June.

Thursday...Confidence is lower on Thursday, mainly due to the
overnight convection and ability to for the atmosphere to
recover. Once again, the wind profile is weak, and the mid level
lapse rates are only 6 to 7 C/km. So the dynamic and
thermodynamic environment is supportive for severe weather, but
not overly favorable. The Marginal/Slight risk seems very
appropriate. Local heavy downpours are also in play given the
light winds, but any flooding concerns would be localized.

Friday...Confidence continues to be low on Friday. Mainly due to
the placement of the frontal boundary. As of now, areas along
I-90, and east of I-35 have a higher chance of storms than areas
to the northwest. One thing of note, the overall setup for
"severe storms" is probably more favorable on Friday than any
other day, due to slightly stronger winds (higher shear), and
steeper mid level lapse rates (higher CAPE). However, the
juxtaposition of those two is more likely across Iowa than our
forecast area.

Saturday and Sunday... Saturday looks dry. The frontal boundary
should be southeast of the region, with a weak surface high in
place. Sunday should be mostly dry as well, but that boundary
will start to lift northward, so should have scattered showers
and storms lifting up from the south. Looking ahead, this set
up will continue into next week, with increasing temperatures,
and chances for thunderstorms.

In Summary, there are several chances for severe storms and
heavy rain, but this is a lower-end threat that is very common
for early June.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

High clouds will continue to spread into eastern Minnesota with
southerly winds occasionally gusting to around 25kts. Showers
and storms are expected to develop across the eastern Dakotas
this afternoon and move eastward during the evening and
overnight hours. There`s still some uncertainty in how far east
the rain will make it, so have only converted KAXN and KRWF from
TEMPO/PROB30 to prevailing for now. Elsewhere, moved back the
timing of any potential -SHRA/TSRA a couple hours. A few sites
may see MVFR cigs by early Thursday morning. Winds gradually
become more southwesterly through the end of the period.

KMSP...No major changes to the forecast. Did move the TEMPO back
to 09z. High uncertainty in rain/storm chances remains for
tomorrow afternoon, so have left any mention out for now.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...-RA likely. Chc TSRA/MVFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts becoming NW.
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts becoming NE.
SUN...VFR. Wind Wind SE 10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...Dye