256
FXUS63 KMPX 041132
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
632 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot & humid today into saturday with heat index values of
  95-100 possible. Heat Advisory in effect for Twin Cities metro
  during the afternoon.

- Frequent chances for scattered showers & thunderstorms into
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Heat and humidity are the main weather concern for today, with
widespread heat indices in the 90s expected this afternoon. A
pool of dewpoints in the low 70s remain across much of the
southern half of MN and western WI, however northerly winds and
outflow from last night`s storms will usher in lower dewpoints.
This will limit heat indices from getting too out of control,
though southern MN may hold onto enough of this moisture into
the afternoon to approach 100 degree heat indices. The urban
heat island of the Twin Cities metro will be the most vulnerable
to heat impacts, with afternoon heat indices hovering right
around that lower threshold of 95F. At the same time, WBGT are
forecasted to be around 84-85F in the metro as well, even with
our lower sun angle this time of year. This reaches a threshold
for high risk of heat related illness and suggests limited
exercise outside, especially for vulnerable populations. We have
opted to go ahead with a metro- specific Heat Advisory despite
the uncertainty and borderline values. It will be hot today
regardless of thresholds and given that it is early September,
it felt worthwhile to give the extra messaging boost for this
anomalous heat. Our most recent Heat Advisory for the metro
dates back to July 27th.

The best chance for any storms today will be along the MN/IA
border, though the latest hi-res guidance continues to trend
dry for the region.

We remain in a hot and stormy pattern with ridging in place
overhead through early next week. Long range guidance
continues to favor storms and appreciable rainfall over western
MN and the Dakotas where better forcing from northeastward
advancing shortwave disturbances is expected. The SWODY2 and 3
both depict this idea as well, with the marginal risks each day
only clipping a part of western MN. The best chance for
widespread precip will likely come some time Monday into Tuesday
as a more organized shortwave breaks down the upper level
ridge. Winds will then increase out of the northwest and advect
in more seasonable temperatures and drier air through the end of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Swath of low stratus behind an outflow boundary from overnight
decaying convection over northern MN is dropping southward into
central MN and western WI at initialization. Most sites will
have a period of IFR ceilings for the first 2-4hrs starting at
12z, with visibility ranging 2-5sm as winds have coincidingly
dropped off to near calm. Once better mixing develops by late
morning, the low moisture will be scoured out and VFR conditions
will prevail. A similar situation looks to develop after 06z
tonight on into sunrise Saturday morning with high pressure
dropping in from the N-NE. Low stratus and fog looks to be
fairly prevalent across the area so have started that idea with
MVFR-IFR mention at most sites at the tail end of this TAF
period.

KMSP...MVFR ceilings look likely to drop south across the
terminal by initialization and remain in place through around
15z or so. VFR conditions will then follow. A similar situation
looks to develop about 24hrs from now so have included a similar
TEMPO mention there, although IFR ceilings cannot be ruled out.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...Chc SHRA/TSRA/MVFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.
MON...Likely SHRA, chc TSRA/MVFR. Wind SE 10-15kts.
TUE...Likely SHRA, chc TSRA/MVFR. Wind S 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CDT this
     evening for Anoka-Carver-Dakota-Hennepin-Ramsey-Scott-
     Washington.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...JPC