183
FXUS63 KMPX 170551
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
Issued by National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1251 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some shower / thunder chances across southern MN later today
  /30-45%/. Rainfall rates should be less than previous days.

- Increasing signal for above-normal temperatures for the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Current regional radar mosaic shows a broken line of thunderstorms
over east-central Minnesota and isolated thunderstorms over
southeastern Minnesota. Our immediate concern is tied to the storms
over EC MN that produced damaging winds in & around St. Cloud
earlier this afternoon. These storms are moving east into a less
favorable environment as the exit MN and into W WI where the storms
should begin to dissipate. Temperatures are in the low to upper 80s
with low 70s dew points across W/C MN and upper 70s with low 70s dew
points in E MN and W WI.

Our attention turns to the next round of thunderstorms slated to
develop mid-late afternoon along & ahead of a surface cold front
across western Minnesota. A complex severe weather set up is in
place with a few key unknowns that I will try to expand on below. A
brief mesoscale analysis highlights a plume of moderate instability
3000 to 4000 J/Kg, 35 to 45 kts bulk shear, favorable low level
shear with backed southeasterly sfc winds ahead of the front over
W/SW MN. Lapse rates arent ideal, around 7.0 to 7.5 c/km. Another
concern is the upper & mid-level wind profile may limit the
potential for higher end severe weather. Hi-res guidance split into
two groups: two areas of convection with one in central MN & one in
southern MN but nothing in the Twin Cities metropolitan area. The
second group develops storms along the entire boundary and brings it
through the Twin Cities. There is still a large amount of
uncertainty with what unfolds this afternoon, but we are certain
well see thunderstorms develop and impact C & S MN and W WI.
Furthermore, there isnt anything that jumps out to us that would
signal which evolution is correct. There is limited capping & plenty
of instability across the area. Ultimately, we will likely see
smaller scale features influence the exact evolution that isnt as
straightforward. Any thunderstorm that does develop will be capable
of producing large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. The
better shear environment across our central Minnesota counties will
favor the better environment for tornado potential.

Our confidence in timing has improved though. The latest hi-res runs
have trended toward a line of thunderstorms developing between 20Z-
21Z across western Minnesota that gradually builds south into
southern Minnesota by 23-00Z. Our current timing would support the
2p-4p window across our western CWA with storms moving east into the
western Twin Cities around 5 to 6pm & eastern Twin Cities metro 7 to
8pm. All storms will produce brief downpours & heavy rain with
localized flooding possible, especially for those who have had heavy
rain earlier today.

For the rest of the forecast period - the pattern will remain active
across the Upper Midwest but well experience a bit of a lull
Tuesday & Wednesday as slightly drier air settles in behind the cold
front tonight into Tuesday. Storm chances increase for the end of
the work week. Temperatures will return to the 70s & low 80s through
Wednesday before warming into the 90s this weekend. Global guidance
signals an impressive mid level ridge building into the Great Lakes
region for the weekend. This should lead to the return of Summer
heat & humidity Saturday & Sunday. The building ridge will place the
Upper Midwest in the Ring of Fire-type pattern that will usher in
additional thunderstorm chances into early next week. The broad
pattern should support severe chances too, but its much too early
to pin those down 5 to 7 days out.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

VFR is expected through the period for much of the area. Further
north, from KEAU-KAXN, some probabilities exist for MVFR
ceilings. In that area, this set of TAFs improves the forecast
from IFR, although some low probabilities still exist for this
to occur (10-20%).

KMSP...VFR is forecast through the period. Currently monitoring
MVFR cloud progressing through northern MN per satellite imagery
and it does continue to dissipate as it heads southward. Have
included a SCT020 and will continue to monitor if a ceiling
would make it to the airfield (10-20% probability).

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Some showers are possible on Wednesday on the northern edge of a
rainy system moving through Wisconsin. At this time, VFR is
still expected. Winds look to remain below 15 kts through
Friday.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WFO MPX
AVIATION...Baumgardt WFO La Crosse