438
FXUS63 KMPX 061645
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1145 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warm today, ahead of another round of showers and
  thunderstorms late Sunday through Monday.

- Much warmer and more humid conditions by the middle of next
  week with highs in the 90s expected. Heat indices may exceed
  100 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Current observations highlight calm winds, mostly clear skies, and
patchy of dense fog that has developed across the region. The
expansion of fog is a bit uncertain, but we have sent out a special
weather statement for dense fog across portions of western Wisconsin
through daybreak. Fog will burn off rather quick after sunrise with
mostly clear skies forecast for the remainder of the day. A weak sfc
high pressure over the Great Lakes will usher in drier air as dew
points fall out of the mid 60s to the mid to upper 50s this
afternoon. Light and variable winds will turn northeasterly by late
morning and easterly by tonight with speeds generally at or below 10
mph. High temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. It`ll be a great day
to tackle any outdoor projects you have put off from last Summer as
a more unsettled stretch will takeover the remainder of the forecast
period.

An upper level low over the southern Plains will lift north into the
Upper Midwest late Sunday and Monday. This allows a surge of high
pwat airmass into the region. NBM PoPs are a fair depiction with
precipitation likely Sunday late afternoon through Monday. Forecast
soundings support 1000 to 2000 J/Kg of MUCAPE but not much else to
work with in context of potential severe weather concerns. This
should ultimately lead to on/off thundershowers that wrap up by
Monday night. QPF amounts will vary given the convective nature of
the precipitation with some locations ending up with little to no
precipitation while others could see upwards of half an inch or
more. E MN and W WI would be current favorites to benefit from the
higher end of QPF for Sun/Mon precipitation.

Drier conditions return for Tuesday as ridging builds into the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes region and southwest flow ramps up across
the central CONUS. Scattered convection will move through Tuesday
night and possibly linger into Wednesday morning. The heat will peak
on Wednesday with highs in the 90s and heat indices exceeding 100
degrees possible. Dew point values will top out in the mid 70s. It
will be tropical. The one concern is that whatever convection does
Tuesday night/Wednesday morning could dampen the high temperature on
Wednesday afternoon. It wouldn`t be a Summer in Upper Midwest
without remnant convection throwing a wrench in the forecast. The
one out could be the warm surge in the mid levels. 700mb temps will
push into the 12C to 14C range that should act to limit convection
through early afternoon on Wednesday. A potent cold front will move
through and usher in relief from the heat and humidity. Showers and
thunderstorms should develop along the front and pose a threat of
severe weather across the region. NBM continues to over do the high
temperatures mid-week likely due to warm bias correction. Ensembles
support highs near 90 Tuesday and low 90s on Wednesday versus mid-
upper 90s that the NBM is spitting out. Temperatures return to near
normal post frontal passage with quieter weather likely into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1136 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

High pressure overhead today will allow for light and variable
winds and mainly clear skies. Some fair weather Cu are popping
across eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin with some high
clouds brushing southern Minnesota. Winds will be generally out
of the east at 5kts or less before becoming more southeasterly
and increasing to 10kts or less overnight as the high shifts
east. Tomorrow will start out clear before mid and high clouds
move in late in the period. Southeast winds continue to increase
through late morning.

KMSP...Heading into tomorrow afternoon, TSRA chances increase.
Timing/coverage confidence is too low to include mention in this
TAF set, but the window for precip should fall between 19-01z.
Gusts of around 20kts are also expected during the afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...SHRA/TSRA likely. MVFR possible. Wind SE 10-15 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
WED...VFR, chc MVFR w/TSRA. Wind S 15-20G30 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...Dye