031
FXUS63 KMPX 090516
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1216 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and comfortable conditions remainder of today with highs
  into the lower 80s.

- The next best chances for rain comes tonight into Sunday
  morning, Sunday night into Monday morning, and early Tuesday
  morning.

- A few storms each of those periods may be strong to severe,
 mainly over southwestern and southern Minnesota.

- Temperatures to remain very close to normal values into the
 middle of next week, then drop below normal late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Overall, not a lot of changes in the forecast from previous
forecast packages. A somewhat active weather pattern with
daily chances of showers and storms across the region through
the period. Temperatures through the weekend and into next week
will hover right around the seasonal average, becoming slightly
below average by the end of next work week and weekend.

.REMAINDER OF TODAY & SUNDAY...

Fair and tranquil weather conditions continue through the
afternoon and evening. Current DP temps as of 1:00pm are in
the 50s across the metro (very comfortable) with temperatures in
the middle to upper 70s. Slightly higher DP temps reside
further south and west across MN. The next shot of showers and
thunderstorms will be late this evening, and more so during the
overnight/early Sunday morning timeframe.

Bigger picture looking aloft, upper level Monsoon high pressure
over the Desert SW and Four Corners regions with corresponding
longwave trough over Hudson Bay with continue to promote zonal
flow to slight NW flow aloft over the region. The slowly moving
to somewhat stagnant upper level Hudson Bay low will rotate
lobes of energy southeast out of the Canadian Prairies and
across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. The first subtle
but sufficient lobe of energy will move across the region late
tonight and into tomorrow morning. The question at hand, will
this lobe of energy offer enough forcing for convection as it
moves by overhead? Looking further down in the column, this
energy is more apparent at 700mb as it moves through during the
overnight timeframe. At 850mb, a noticeable 850mb LLJ develops
across NW MO, SE NE and into IA with it`s northern fringe nosing
into southern MN with 20-30kt SW 850mb winds across southern
half of MN. At the surface, surface low will develop over
central SD in response to the upper level energy, with
corresponding warm front surging north ahead of the LLJ just.

High res guidance shows sufficient moisture advection across
southern and southwestern MN with DP temps in the upper 60s to
around 70 degrees late tonight and early Sunday morning. This
warm front, in combination with strengthening 850mb flow, and
incoming upper level lobe of energy, along with sufficient
instability and shear parameters may promote robust convection
tonight. The second question at hand is, where will storm
initiation occur? There still remains quite a bit of
discrepancies between high res model guidance and high res
ensemble suites. But as of now, the focus for storm development
will be across eastern SD and western MN, with storm progression
towards the SE across southern MN, especially along and south
of Minnesota River Valley. Our colleagues at the Storm
Prediction Center has a marginal (1 out 5) risk for severe
weather along and south of the I-94 corridor. That said,
isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible during
the overnight and early morning Sunday timeframe for areas
along south of I-94, with a few storms becoming strong to
severe. The main threats will be strong to severe wind gusts,
some hail, dangerous lightning, and heavy rainfall.

After activity progresses east during the morning, isolated
showers and storms will exist for areas along and east of the
I-35 on Sunday.

.NEXT WORK WEEK...

On Monday, generally quiet and fair weather conditions will
resume with near seasonal temperatures and mostly sunny to
partly cloudy skies. The next chance for showers and storms will
be on Tuesday as another lobe of energy rotates and races
southeast across the region. Thereafter, the aforementioned
Hudson Bay upper low will begin to weaken and move east, giving
the area a brief period of quiet weather Thursday and Friday
before the next system brings increase rain/storm chances next
weekend. Temperatures through the second half of the week will
be near to slightly below the seasonal average for the middle of
August.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Tricky convective forecast over the next 24 hours due to high
uncertainty among the CAMs with not only initiation but also
projected development during the TAF period. Very isolated TSRA
currently ongoing but mostly away from terminals so have been
able to start all sites as dry. That said, a variance of PROB30
timing exists across all sites as pockets of TSRA are generally
expected but difficult to go with TEMPO certainty as to
where/when. Will monitor radar trends and issue AMDs as needed.
Otherwise, mid-level clouds will increase underneath upper level
passing cirrus/smoke. Ceilings are likely near and after
daybreak, and potentially into MVFR level should TSRA occur near
any terminals (which also would cause visibility reductions).
Winds may be quite erratic owing to nearby frontal boundaries
and convective outflows, but overall to remain under 10kts
outside of TSRA.

KMSP...Best timing for TSRA still looks to be during the early
morning hours up through sunrise, but this could be adjusted
should additional clusters develop over the eastern Dakotas
which shift east across MN and/or over central MN and drift near
the TC metro. Will continue to run with the 10z-13z timing but
this could be adjusted earlier or later so radar trends will be
monitored closely. Otherwise, mid-level ceilings will develop
close to sunrise and persist for much of the day before the
mid-levels scour out in favor of high cirrus/smoke passing
across the area. Winds overall to remain under 10kts but with
potentially erratic changes in direction throughout this TAF
period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...Mainly VFR. Chc early A.M. -SHRA. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts becoming NW.
THU...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LPR
AVIATION...JPC