909
FXUS63 KMPX 242328
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
628 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered rain chances return this weekend with Saturday
  offering the best chance for showers across much of Minnesota
  and western Wisconsin.

- A frontal passage brings more widespread rain Monday night
  into Tuesday with locally heavier rainfall possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 137 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026


Light rain continues to spread eastwards into western
Wisconsin, but should begin to diminish as we get later into the
afternoon. Rainfall amounts will be on the order of a tenth of
an inch or less. Skies remain mostly cloudy into Friday which
will keep temperatures fairly steady, falling to around 60
overnight & warming back into the upper 60s tomorrow afternoon.

Rain chances return this weekend as a weak disturbance moves
through the Upper Midwest. Saturday currently looks like the
wetter day, with scattered showers & a few thunderstorms
developing across much of Minnesota & western Wisconsin. Similar
to today, showers will be more widespread across western
Minnesota compared to eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin.
Expected rainfall amounts this weekend range from around half an
inch across western Minnesota to only a tenth or less across
western Wisconsin.

A stronger shortwave & surface front approaches the region
Monday. Southerly winds ahead of this system should allow
temperatures to moderate somewhat, with highs climbing back
into the upper 60s to around 70 in many areas. Increasing
moisture will also set the stage for a more widespread round of
rain as a cold front moves through Monday night into Tuesday.
This currently looks like the best chance for a broad, soaking
rain during the next several days, with current guidance
supporting a widespread 0.50-1" of rain and locally higher
amounts possible. Severe weather still appears unlikely, but
embedded thunderstorms could enhance rainfall rates in spots.

Cooler air filters back into the region behind the front
Tuesday into Wednesday, with more fall-like temperatures
through the rest of the week with highs in the low to mid 60s &
lows in the 40s. The pattern may remain active as another
disturbance develops along or north of the stalled frontal zone
late Wednesday into Thursday. Some spread in the guidance exists
on just how far north the precipitation for this system may
extend into Minnesota, but at least the far southern portion of
the state appears positioned for another round of appreciable
rainfall. Otherwise, high pressure building over the Upper
Midwest should keep us cool & dry through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 628 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Patches of light rain and drizzle continue at TAF issuance time,
but it should taper off during the next several hours. IFR/LIFR
conditions across western MN will prevail through mid to late
Friday morning. Areas east of MKT and MSP will remain mostly
VFR through the period with dry low level southeast flow
maintaining much higher cloud bases.

KMSP...Improved the TAF significantly with prospects of lower
cloud development now appearing unlikely. There may be a brief
period of MVFR cigs Friday as diurnal clouds begin forming, but
bases should rise back to VFR levels by afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...Chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind SE 10-15 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind SE 10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...Borghoff