149
FXUS63 KMPX 170008
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
Issued by National Weather Service La Crosse WI
708 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional thunderstorm development likely this afternoon
  across western & central Minnesota. Thunderstorms will move
  into the Twin Cities late afternoon/early evening and into
  western Wisconsin this evening.

- A few severe thunderstorms are possible capable of large hail, damaging
  winds, and a couple tornadoes this afternoon into the evening
  hours. An active pattern continues through the week with
  additional thunderstorm chances.

- Increasing signal for above-normal temperatures for the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Current regional radar mosaic shows a broken line of thunderstorms
over east-central Minnesota and isolated thunderstorms over
southeastern Minnesota. Our immediate concern is tied to the storms
over EC MN that produced damaging winds in & around St. Cloud
earlier this afternoon. These storms are moving east into a less
favorable environment as the exit MN and into W WI where the storms
should begin to dissipate. Temperatures are in the low to upper 80s
with low 70s dew points across W/C MN and upper 70s with low 70s dew
points in E MN and W WI.

Our attention turns to the next round of thunderstorms slated to
develop mid-late afternoon along & ahead of a surface cold front
across western Minnesota. A complex severe weather set up is in
place with a few key unknowns that I will try to expand on below. A
brief mesoscale analysis highlights a plume of moderate instability
3000 to 4000 J/Kg, 35 to 45 kts bulk shear, favorable low level
shear with backed southeasterly sfc winds ahead of the front over
W/SW MN. Lapse rates arent ideal, around 7.0 to 7.5 c/km. Another
concern is the upper & mid-level wind profile may limit the
potential for higher end severe weather. Hi-res guidance split into
two groups: two areas of convection with one in central MN & one in
southern MN but nothing in the Twin Cities metropolitan area. The
second group develops storms along the entire boundary and brings it
through the Twin Cities. There is still a large amount of
uncertainty with what unfolds this afternoon, but we are certain
well see thunderstorms develop and impact C & S MN and W WI.
Furthermore, there isnt anything that jumps out to us that would
signal which evolution is correct. There is limited capping & plenty
of instability across the area. Ultimately, we will likely see
smaller scale features influence the exact evolution that isnt as
straightforward. Any thunderstorm that does develop will be capable
of producing large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. The
better shear environment across our central Minnesota counties will
favor the better environment for tornado potential.

Our confidence in timing has improved though. The latest hi-res runs
have trended toward a line of thunderstorms developing between 20Z-
21Z across western Minnesota that gradually builds south into
southern Minnesota by 23-00Z. Our current timing would support the
2p-4p window across our western CWA with storms moving east into the
western Twin Cities around 5 to 6pm & eastern Twin Cities metro 7 to
8pm. All storms will produce brief downpours & heavy rain with
localized flooding possible, especially for those who have had heavy
rain earlier today.

For the rest of the forecast period - the pattern will remain active
across the Upper Midwest but well experience a bit of a lull
Tuesday & Wednesday as slightly drier air settles in behind the cold
front tonight into Tuesday. Storm chances increase for the end of
the work week. Temperatures will return to the 70s & low 80s through
Wednesday before warming into the 90s this weekend. Global guidance
signals an impressive mid level ridge building into the Great Lakes
region for the weekend. This should lead to the return of Summer
heat & humidity Saturday & Sunday. The building ridge will place the
Upper Midwest in the Ring of Fire-type pattern that will usher in
additional thunderstorm chances into early next week. The broad
pattern should support severe chances too, but its much too early
to pin those down 5 to 7 days out.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 708 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Storms will be the primary TAF concern over the next few hours as a
line of discrete storms continue to move through portions of central
MN this evening. As storms approach, MVFR to IFR vsbys will be
likely with strong winds and large hail possible. Conditions will
return to VFR after these storms pass temporarily, however as we
head into the overnight some MVFR cigs will move into areas north of
a Twin Cities to St. Cloud, MN line overnight with some
northeasterly flow. Some IFR reductions will be possible as the
recent HREF has some medium probabilities (30-60%) for IFR cigs at
both KEAU and KAXN. As a result, have included some IFR cigs at
these sites. Conditions will improve to VFR towards 15z across much
of the local area.

KMSP...Discrete supercell storms currently situated west of the Twin
Cities metro area will continue to encroach on MSP over the next
couple of hours. Still plenty of uncertainty with how this will
transpire over the next hour or two as this convection is taking the
right-mover vector which should keep the bulk of this development
southwest of KMSP, aside from any left-move splits that may occur.
As a result, have kept the tempo for -tsra over the next hour.
Otherwise, VFR cigs are anticipated overnight with some low-end
probabilities (15-30% chance in the 16.18z HREF) for MVFR cigs
during the morning hours. Consequently, have included a sct020 to
address this potential, even if the bulk of these cigs should remain
northeast.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR/-SHRA chc IFR/-TSRA. Wind N 5-10kts.
THU...VFR, slgt chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind W 5-10kts.
FRI...VFR, chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind S 10-15kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WFO MPX
AVIATION...WFO MPX