323
FXUS63 KMPX 031915
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
215 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Poor air quality due to wildfire smoke continues through
  remainder of the weekend.

- Scattered rain shower chances tonight across western
  Minnesota. Rain chances continue through Monday afternoon.

- Heat, humidity, & thunderstorm chances will return by mid-
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Radar imagery shows showers continuing across western and into
central MN early this afternoon, as a MCV has stalled over
northeastern SD. Additional scattered showers should develop later
this afternoon across western and central MN (to the south of the
current activity) where daytime heating can combine with the lift
from the MCV. One or two thunderstorms may also occur with the only
expected hazard being a few lightning strikes. CAMs show this new
precipitation slowly lifting north to northern MN into Monday
morning. The MCV will slowly shift east into central MN Monday,
which will bring more scattered showers and storms throughout the
day. However, have decided to keep PoPs in relatively the same
region as today (western to central MN) as this is where the best
instability is located. A few more thunderstorms may also occur as
CAPE marginally increases. Rainfall amounts through Monday night
won`t be too crazy but 0.25-0.5" seems likely for west-central MN,
with localized amounts possibly exceeding 1" where thunderstorms
occur.

By Tuesday, the MCV finally weakens and gets kicked northeast into
the Upper Great Lakes by a brief incoming ridge. This should allow
for mostly dry conditions with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
With only breezier winds in western MN, most of Tuesday should be a
very nice day. Onward from Tuesday night, we will see a gradual
increase in the heat and humidity for the rest of the week as
persistent low-level southerly-southwesterly flow develops over the
Central to Northern Plains. This will cause advection of the thermal
ridge over the Rockies and greater moisture from the south, with the
worst conditions likely being felt Thursday-Saturday. Highs are
forecast to climb into the upper 80s to near 90 for a good portion
of the MPX CWA while dewpoints reach the lower to even mid 70s.
Summer looks to make another triumphant return after a brief break
of milder weather. Chances for showers and thunderstorms also exist
each day after Tuesday as any disturbance within the zonal mid-level
flow will be able to take advantage of the growing instability.
Currently, have 20-40% PoPs across most of the CWA each
afternoon/night as forecast models have differences in timing and
location of such weak disturbances. Synoptically, the best chances
for any severe weather appear to Thursday through Saturday as
guidance brings a stronger shortwave from the Pacific Northwest into
the Northern Plains. Downstream upper-level diffluence should
provide synoptic lift as wind shear increases amid the incoming
jetstream. Thus, any storms thunderstorms that manage to form within
the extreme instability and at least marginal wind shear (>30 knots)
should become more organized with a possible severe weather threat.
We will have to continue to monitor the forecast and it is possible
our region sees one (or more) convective outlooks from the Storm
Prediction Center as we get to the latter half of the week.

Forecast models eventually bring the shortwave through the Upper
Midwest late weekend/early next week. Model suites do differ in the
timing and strength of the wave with the ECMWF and partially the EPS
favoring a slower, stronger wave with a more northerly track into
Canada. Meanwhile, the American and Canadian models favor a weaker
wave that sweeps through the Upper Midwest. The result in question
is if we stay relatively warm and humid into next week. However,
there are the other aforementioned forecast concerns we must
prioritize first.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Majority of aviation related weather concerns through the 18z
TAF period will be associated with the western MN terminals
(AXN/RWF). Steady light precip streamed from south to north
through the morning and continues to impact AXN at this hour.
Evolution of the afternoon forecast is a bit uncertain, as hi-
res guidance continues to suggest showers/very isolated thunder
will develop across SW MN. Carried PROB30s for -TSRA at both
terminals during the afternoon/early evening period. Otherwise,
VFR across eastern MN/western WI, with southerly winds around
10kts. Visibility reductions from wildfire smoke continue,
though are not as degraded as previous days. 18z TAF set removes
mention of smoke at all sites west of RNH/EAU by 00z. Smoke is
forecast to linger into tomorrow across western WI. Finally, do
expect another round of showers heading into Monday morning
across western MN. Confidence was only high enough to include
mention via a PROB30 at AXN.

KMSP...Optimistic that we will be able to drop the smoke
mention for the 00z TAF. Otherwise winds out of the SSE
diminish tonight before increasing after ~15/16z tomorrow. May
need to add a 20kt gust in for Monday afternoon in later TAFs.
Various solution suggest isolated shower or storm potential
Monday afternoon, though confidence in impacts to MSP was too
low to include in the 18z TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind SE 5-15 kts.
WED...VFR. Slight chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S 10-20 kts.
THU...VFR. Slight chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...Strus