261
FXUS63 KMPX 162027
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
327 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably cool into this weekend with thunderstorm chances
  Friday night into Saturday.

- Much warmer & active pattern next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

After a taste of fall today, temperatures will warm up slightly
tomorrow and Friday with limited sky cover under a Canadian
high. Our next chance for rain comes Friday night into Saturday
morning as a weak shortwave with a belt of 60+ knot westerly
winds moves overhead. The best chance for strong storms looks to
be tied to the greater instability over eastern Nebraska and
western Iowa, yet our ~500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE and 45+ knot bulk
shear may warrant a low risk of organized convection if it can
overlap at all (the greatest wind shear may be too far north).
Widespread strong storms or heavy rainfall certainly do not
look to be the case with this setup.

Another broad area of high pressure will settle in behind this
wave, making for pleasant conditions the rest of the weekend.
Highs will slowly increase each day, with long range models
continuing to show a building ridge through the middle of next
week. Expect a return to hot and humid conditions, with plenty
of chances for organized thunderstorms along the northern edge
of the ridge. In other words, although it may feel like it
now... summer is not quite done yet!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Cigs are beginning the push to MVFR, with a few 010 or less
reports remaining. Rain is quickly wrapping up to the east, with
EAU losing -RA mentions at 21Z. VFR conditions return for the
end of the period with light northerly winds leading to a
pleasant day on Thursday.

KMSP...IFR cigs will slowly transition to MVFR within the next
few hours. Current thinking is by 22Z, but it could be sooner.
No concerns with any thunder potential and rain should be over
for the period with VFR conditions returning for tomorrow.


/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind N < 5 kts.
FRI...VFR. Chc -TSRA after dark. Wind SSE 6-12 kts.
SAT...VFR. Chc -TSRA/MVFR early morning. Wind NE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...PV