575
FXUS63 KMPX 301850
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
150 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Following today`s warm temperatures, a cold front will bring
  more seasonable highs for the first day of October through
  this weekend.

- Other than some isolated showers Saturday, much of the
  forecast period looks dry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Clouds cleared quickly across western and central Minnesota this
morning, which allowed temperatures to climb into the upper 60s to
mid 70s before noon. Temperatures are now sitting in the upper 70s
to low 80s just before 2pm. Further south and east, clouds and
fog have been slower to clear out, but there should still be
plenty of time for widespread highs in the mid to upper 70s for
this last day of September. A more seasonable airmass will
arrive following a frontal passage late tonight/early tomorrow.
Most notably, Tds will tumble from the 60s today down into the
upper 30s/40s. Northwest flow and CAA will remain in place into
Friday before the surface high slides east and we see a slight
bump in temperatures and moisture Saturday. A shortwave will
move along the International Border late in the day and may lead
to a few isolated showers for mainly northern and central
Minnesota.

The second half of the weekend, temperatures return to the low to
mid 60s with ample sunshine. Clear skies and high pressure overhead
will make for what will likely be the chilliest night of the season
so far for most. Monday morning lows are currently forecast to be in
the low 40s for western and southern Minnesota with mid 30s across
central Minnesota into western Wisconsin. Following up on the
climate stats from the previous discussion, we typically drop below
50 degrees for first time in the Twin Cities in late August. We have
yet to do that this year, but it looks like Friday morning will
change that. With a current forecast of 42 degrees Monday morning,
this would be the coldest morning in the Twin Cities since May 20th
(the forecasts for STC and EAU also point to it being the coldest
morning since mid May). This cool down will be brief with highs in
the upper 60s to low 70s returning by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

LIFR/IFR cigs continue to persist over southern/eastern MN and
parts of WI. The bank is eroding from west to east and expecting
the rest of it to scatter out by mid afternoon. High clouds will
remain to the south for much of the afternoon, but will spread
north tonight. More fog may develop tonight across southern MN,
but a cold front will bring drier air and increasing northwest
winds overnight which should lead to improvement by morning.

KMSP...IFR cigs are expected to persist through about 20Z, then
should scatter out. Some additional fog and low stratus can`t be
ruled out late tonight just ahead of the cold front, but the
better chances of this occurring will be to the south.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind variable 5 kts.
SAT...VFR. Chc MVFR SHRA. S bcmg SW Winds 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...Borghoff