158
FXUS63 KMPX 291905
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
205 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat continues today with highs around 90.

- Heavy rain looking increasingly likely Thursday into Friday
  for for areas south and west of the Twin Cities along the
  Minnesota River Valley and I-90.

- Rain moves off Friday, with dry conditions, light winds, and sunny
  skies expected this weekend.

- Smoky skies continue at times, but the chance for surface
  smoke impacts appears low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

TODAY AND TONIGHT...Late morning satellite imagery with surface
observations showed milky skies from elevated smoke, with a few low
level cumulus clouds developing. Winds were out of the south, with
temperatures in the 80s across the region. For the rest of today,
expect dry conditions, as the chance for a stray shower or
thunderstorm is only around 5 to 10 percent. Temperatures will be
warm again today, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. For
tonight, expect the quiet weather to continue with light southerly
winds and lows falling to near 70.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...This remains the main period of interest, as
an upper level wave will approach from the Dakotas, and slowly move
southeast across the region, drawing up the high PWAT air (near 2
inches) that is currently located over Nebraska and Kansas.
Confidence remains high that this slow-moving system will produce
pockets of heavy rain with the potential for efficient, tropical
rain processes, as indicated by the QPF output from various models.
The question still remains exactly where this will occur.

The latest guidance has shifted the QPF to the south and west, which
lines up with our thinking of having the heaviest rain south/west of
I-94, closer to the Minnesota River Valley and I-90. As for amounts,
the official rainfall forecast has broad brush amounts of 1 to 2
inches of rain in this area. However, HiRes models support isolated
amounts much higher, with pockets of 3 to 5 inches seeming plausible
and a few reports of 6 inches or greater not out of the question.
The main threat would be flooding in smaller, fast responding creeks
and streams, along with any urban areas. A Flood Watch may be needed
if once confidence increases on where system will track. However,
given the abnormally dry conditions across the region, river
flooding along the main stems is very low.

There is also a sneaky tornado potential ahead of the surface low
given the veering wind profile and low LCLs, but of course this
depends on the track of the surface low. Current thinking is this
tornado risk area would be to the south, across Iowa, where there
are increased chances for a dry slot and better instability to
develop Friday afternoon.

Looking ahead, this system will slowly exit to the southeast on
Friday, with rain chances decreasing throughout the day. Most
locations should see dry conditions by Friday evening.

THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK...No major changes to the previous
forecast. Saturday and Sunday look fantastic weather-wise, with
light winds, mostly sunny skies, and temperatures in the low to mid
80s.

Monday will be the warmest day next week. If winds are light,
dewpoints could remain in the 70s, but temperatures would be cooler.
If southwest winds are a bit stronger, then temperatures could climb
into the 90s, but dewpoints would mix out into the 50s. Either
scenario would result in a warm/hot day, but should remain cooler
than Heat Advisory threshold.

Looking ahead, a weak cold front will pass through the region late
Monday into Tuesday. This will bring small chances for
thunderstorms, along with cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 111 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

VFR with light southerly winds between 5-10kts. Aside from low
diurnal scattered cu, wildfire smoke could be a bit more
prevalent than it was yesterday. So have favored with SCT080
sky groups to reflect for the rest of today into tonight. There
is a non- zero chance for an isolated shower or storm across
central MN this afternoon but confidence was too low to include
mention in any of the TAFs. That being said, its more likely
that all sites remain dry this period. Our next system which
featuring -RA/TSRA arrives late tomorrow and will likely be
introduced next TAF. Did introduce upper-level cigs developing
out ahead of this system late tomorrow morning as well as
increased southerly sfc flow between 10-12kts.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MVFR/SHRA/chc TS. Wind E shifting N 10kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind N 5-10kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind. SE 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Benton-Douglas-
     Kanabec-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Pope-Stearns-Stevens-Swift-
     Todd.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...Dunleavy