552
FXUS63 KMPX 042339
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
539 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain lingers overnight into tomorrow morning.

- Extended stretch of dry weather expected into mid-November.

- Above normal temperatures this weekend through most of next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Gloomy wet November weather continues for a third day today as
a sub-1000 mb low continues remains stalled out as it occludes
directly over the area. The low will slowly move off to the east
into the Great Lakes overnight into tomorrow along with the
lingering light rain that we`ve seen through out today.
Widespread cloud cover will still stick around along with
cooler temperatures as northwest flow keeps temperatures in the
40s through the day tomorrow. Clouds will eventually clear out
Friday morning as drier air filters into the region from the
northwest. We could see widespread sub-freezing temperatures
Friday morning if the clouds are able to clear out during the
overnight hours, but AI-guidance & the latest high-resilution
guidance trends suggests we`ll probably stay cloudy & warmer
through the night.

Friday starts an extended stretch of dry weather as a number of
high pressure systems generally dominate the weather regime
over the Upper Midwest & eastern CONUS as a whole. AI & physical
ensemble guidance suggests we have little chance of any
appreciable rainfall over the next two weeks, with maybe a weak
clipper giving us a quick hit of light rain for the middle of
next week. Temperatures will be above-normal through the period,
with the warmest weather coming early next week as upper-level
ridging builds over the central US & ensemble guidance shows
temperature anomalies of 10-15 F above normal. For context,
normal temperatures this time of November are in the the upper
40s for highs & low 30s for lows. Temperatures dip a bit later
in the week but return to well- above normal values next weekend
through mid- November as pronounced ridging looks to rebuild
over the central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 538 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Slow-moving low pressure system continues to turn over the Upper
Midwest. The center of the low was near MSP at initiation, with
terminals to the west of MSP observing breezy northwesterly
winds. Southerly flow continues east of MSP at RNH and EAU.
Winds will turn northwesterly at all sites this evening and
widespread LIFR conditions due to rain, low ceilings, and
visibility reductions will spread east through the night. Rain
is forecast to end from west to east through daybreak Thursday,
which will be followed by ceiling improvements through the
morning and afternoon. Still, the low-level inversion aims to
persist through the day, so the best case ceiling scenario will
be MVFR cigs near 2k feet by the afternoon. Breezy northerly
flow will produce gusts upwards of 25kts through the end of the
00z period.

KMSP...Latest observations show that the northwesterly wind
shift has occurred to the northwest of the TC Metro at GYL and
CFE, however it will still be an hour or two before the winds
kick out of the northwest at MSP. Have reflected this with a
slightly delayed wind shift in the new TAF. Otherwise no major
changes to the going forecast with rain, LIFR ceilings and
visibility reductions through the night. Precip should depart
the terminal by the morning push. Thursday will feature breezy
northerly winds and a gradual improvement to MVFR ceilings.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind NE 5 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind W 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...Strus