376
FXUS63 KMPX 200747
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
247 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler temperatures with mostly cloudy skies persist through
  the weekend.

- Drier conditions return next week with highs in the mid to
  upper 60s.

- Next chance for rain arrives Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

The active weather overnight shifted south into Iowa and Illinois
with the main front. We`ve seen clearing slowly proceed south
overnight, but we are expecting any clear skies this morning to
cloud back up pretty quick as a stratocu field fills back in with
mixing. Still, the presence of at least a little sun will allow
highs today to push up into the mid 60s.

For tonight and Monday, energy from the messy trough on water vapor
imagery moving across MT/WY will slowly move across the region. The
strongest bit of energy, which is currently over WY, will continue
east across Neb and into Iowa on Monday. This will spread more
clouds across the area, with light rain looking likely to spread
across southern MN on Monday given broad and weak ascent associated
with the h5 low down over Iowa. Amounts will be very light (under a
tenth of an inch), but Monday will be another cool, gray, and damp
day south of the Twin Cities.

For the rest of the work week, we`ll see a Rex Block try to develop
over central Canada, with the primary blocking high setting up over
Hudson Bay. This upper air setup will support a nearly station
surface high over the Great Lakes, with a dry easterly flow
resulting for us. This will dry us out for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Wednesday night, a cold front will be moving across the Dakotas.
This front will washout and lose its definition over MN on Thursday,
but its plume of increased moisture will remain, which looks to
shake out some light rain. The best chances will be in western MN as
the low level air becomes increasingly drier the farther east you go.

For Friday into the weekend, we`ll see ridging return with upper
flow becoming southwesterly in response to height falls across
western North America. The forecast for next weekend is trending
drier as ensemble means show that western trough not ejecting out
across the central CONUS until early in the week of the 28th. After
the gloomy weekend we have had to this point, next weekend should be
a great weekend to get out and enjoy your favorite fall outdoor
activities with highs getting back up into the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Somewhat of a complicated setup tonight with a clearing line
slowly building south of the US-12 corridor, but a weak front in
central MN is bringing a renewed risk of MVFR cigs in its wake.
It looks like the HRRR/RAP have a good general handle on cloud
trends tonight, with a period of VFR cigs expected at all
terminals except MKT and EAU. We followed the idea of the
majority of hi-res models in that as mixing deepens Sunday
morning, we`ll see a bkn-ovc stratocu deck develop, likely at
high end MVFR levels before rising back to VFR levels and
breaking up during the afternoon. Winds this period will remain
out of the northeast, with a modest diurnal uptick in speeds
during the morning on Sunday.

KMSP...MSP is on the edge of the stratus deck this period,
though may see it pop back in occasional in the first 4 hours or
so of this period. High end MVFR chances will be greatest
between 16z and 20z on Sunday as the stratocu deck develops.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...MPG