093
FXUS63 KMPX 051814
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
114 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather today and tomorrow, with rain chances returning on
Friday.

- Isolated storm chances linger through the rest of the period,
  with the best chance Saturday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 113 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

The fair weather cumulus has largely been confined to western WI and
southeastern MN so far this afternoon with some wispy high clouds
also moving through on what is otherwise a gorgeous day across the
region. Temperatures are comfortable in the low to mid 70s expected
to reach the mid to upper 70s this afternoon before dropping back
into the 50s tonight. Tomorrow should be a bit warmer than today,
back to the low to mid 80s as breezy southerly winds are expected
ahead of what will be our next chance for precipitation arriving on
Friday via a weak cold front. The timing of the front has trended
earlier within the last 24 hours of model runs, generally arriving
around 12 hours earlier than previously forecast by most of the
guidance as we have just reached the range where some of the CAMs
are starting to pick up on it. The earlier timing will allow the
strongest showers to arrive from the northwest with a bit of
nocturnal low level jet enhancement, however by the time it reaches
the MPX CWA it will be after sunrise such that they should remain
fairly weak. Due to how weak the surface low and frontal boundary
are, we are not expecting any sort of significant widespread rains
or even storms from this round, with most of the area being fairly
dry or less than a few hundredths of an inch. Those who manage to
see a slightly stronger shower or even a weak thunderstorm could see
a tenth of an inch or two at the most through the end of Friday.

There is still a notable warm bias within the GEFS/FV3 suite of
guidance as we head through the weekend and into early next week, as
they are producing a much stronger ridge to the southwest which is
allowing for a much greater degree of lower level warming compared
to the much cooler EPS/ECMWF. The NBM has generally favored the EPS
solution with highs in the low to mid 80s through the weekend and
into early next week, which seems most realistic as the FV3 core
likely is keeping a lingering warm bias due to the hot weather we
observed throughout July. On top of the warm bias, there are
concerns due to the upstream flow being sourced from a region with
active wildfires resulting in upper level smoke which would help
knock down temperatures by a degree or two. Weaker lower level
warming would also give us better chances for fair weather cumulus
or even some isolated storm activity by reducing any sort of lower
level cap and allowing us to tap into some instability. Given the
upper level flow favoring west-northwest to northwesterly, some
ridge-rider style shortwave impulses are also possible, further
adding to the daily cloud cover/isolated storm chances. All these
things combined, we generally favor the cooler solution compared to
the red hot GEFS/FV3. As we get a bit closer and into the shorter-
CAM ranges, we should have a better idea on diurnal thunderstorm
chances. For now, the best chances remain Friday and Saturday night,
with low confidence afterwards.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1141 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

VFR expected the entire period with scattered high clouds this
evening into tonight. Winds over eastern MN and western WI are
still northwesterly following the cold front but will eventually
join the western terminals in a south-southwesterly direction by
this evening. Strongest winds this afternoon will be in west-
central MN (AXN) where gusts could reach 20 knots. Winds slow to
near or under 5 knots this evening before increasing during
Thursday morning out of the south-southwest. Gusts will exceed
20 knots in west-central MN by late Thursday morning.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR, chc -SHRA. Wind SW 5-10G20kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind S 5-10kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind NNE 5kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...CTG