477
FXUS63 KMPX 061736
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1236 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler temps today and Tuesday with patchy frost possible Tuesday
  night in north-central Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

- Highs returning to the 70s by midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

All showery activity has cleared western WI early this morning. As
of the midnight climate run, areas received anywhere from a few
hundredths to a couple of tenths of an inch of rainfall. Winds have
also subsided based off of latest surface observations and are
expected to stay relatively calm as high pressure builds in for the
first half of this week. A trough axis move eastward along the
international border throughout today. As this happens, flow aloft
will strengthen into a jetstreak over Ontario and Quebec and causing
enough lift to generate a few sprinkles southeastern MN this
afternoon then up through Eau Claire, WI by this evening. Otherwise
skies becoming increasingly cloudy as the day progresses but will
clear out overnight. Highs in the low 60s and lows in the 40s to
upper 30s.

Tuesday and Wednesday consist of light winds and temperatures in the
60s with mainly clear skies. Overnight lows Tuesday night will reach
the lower 40s to upper 30s, and even mid-20s across NE`rn MN! The
coldest temperatures should stay up in that region where freeze
headlines will likely be needed. Whereas areas mainly north and east
of the I-94 corridor could see some patchy frost. Come the second
half of the week, thermal ridging builds back into the northern
plains. But the warm up will not be like our most recent warm up
where we saw 90s. This time, temperatures will return to the low 70s
which is still considered seasonably warm. As for precip chances,
ensemble guidance goes pretty dormant until next week except for the
slight chance of some isolated showers Thursday afternoon and
evening.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Mid-level SCT to
BKN clouds will remain with us through the evening hours before
clearing out. I have removed the PROB30 at EAU given the trends
in the HRRR to keep any SHRA to the S/E of EAU. Winds will
continue to be light and generally from the north/northwest
before turning westerly overnight. Winds will increase and turn
back to the northwest behind a weak cold front on Tuesday.


KMSP... No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind S 5-15 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind S 10-15G25kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind S BCMG NW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...BPH