842
FXUS63 KMPX 081458
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
958 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions develop across west-central
  MN this afternoon. A Red Flag Warning has been issued.

- Warmer today with one more round of frosty air this weekend
  before a more sustained warm up next week.

- Some light rain is possible along a passing cold front tonight
  into early Saturday for central Minnesota into western
  Wisconsin.

- Better chance for more widespread rainfall arrives late Monday
  into Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 946 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Building off of the overnight discussion, we have opted to issue
a Red Flag Warning across west-central MN as critical fire
weather conditions are forecast to develop this afternoon.
Morning forecast soundings across the model suite highlight
deep mixing to least 8-9k feet, with some hi-res solutions
suggesting mixing heights of 10k+ feet. Should easily mix
20-25kt winds to the surface as a result and will likely have a
few instantaneous gusts in excess of 30kts across western MN.
The combination of strong WNW winds and low RH`s (15-20% across
the Red Flag Warning area) will create critical fire weather
conditions this afternoon. The main "limiting factor" for a more
widespread fire weather threat is the recent "green-up" across
southern MN. Still, elevated to near-critical fire weather
conditions are possible across eastern MN/western WI this
afternoon. We issued a Special Weather Statement to address this
potential.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

This morning`s frost advisory looks to be on track as
temperatures have fallen across much of western Wisconsin into
parts of east central Minnesota. Farther west and south some
cloud cover and warmer air aloft has helped keep temperatures
warmer. Moving on to today, it looks like a brief warm up
thanks to some weak WAA. How strong this WAA is today will be
key in determining how windy it gets. If it ends up on the
stronger side, like some of the high resolution guidance like
the HRRR suggest, we may be able to mix down winds from as high
as 700 mb. This would have winds over performing the current
forecast. Importantly this would take the elevated fire weather
conditions and could move it into more critical fire weather.
All together this afternoon into evening does not look like a
good day for burning. Our brief warm up will come to an end as
a cold front passes through tonight into tomorrow morning. With
this frontal passage the key question will be moisture.
Overnight timing of the frontal passage will help by having
temperatures at a diurnal minimum as a afternoon passage would
very likely be dry due to a lack of humidity. Even with the
overnight timing, the farther south the more low level dry air
there will be. Currently expecting the best chance to see
overnight rain along and north of the I-94 corridor. Further
south chances drop off as this dry air starts to win out more
and more.

Behind the frontal passage will be a cooler weekend due to the
CAA. This keeps highs more in the 50s with some 60s across parts
of southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin. Generally higher
surface pressure, especially on Sunday night, will provide for
clear skies that will enable radiational cooling. This will
bring lows down into the 30s Saturday and Sunday night. Both
nights will likely see frost and some freezes will also be
possible, especially on Sunday night into Monday morning.

Next week will see a push of more sustained warm air across the
Upper Midwest. Guidance does not favor frost any morning next
week past Monday morning and CPC outlooks favor above normal
temperatures for the rest of the month. So it is looking
increasingly likely that frost and freeze season ends on Monday
morning. The other story next week will be the early week short
wave trough moving through. There is strong agreement amongst
the global ensembles that a widespread rain event will occur
here. Current QPF amounts do not look high with up to around a
tenth the most common although there is around a quarter to a
third of the global ensemble membership higher than that
depending on location across our area. Behind this trough a
ridge looks to build in midweek. This will help enable
widespread 70s and lower 80s by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 626 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

VFR is expected for all sites throughout the TAF, with the
exception of a chance for -SHRA towards the end of the period
which may result in some brief MVFR visibility. Winds begin
below 5kts variable in some spots but generally at 220-250,
shifting towards 260-290 as they increase to 10-15kts after 18z.
Gusts to 20-25kts are possible after winds increase, diminishing
after 03z as we lose mixing from daylight. Prob30 groups for
-SHRA moving through have been added to most sites except for
 RWF/MKT where the chance is less than 20 percent.

KMSP...Introduced the prob30 window for -SHRA from 09 to 13z,
with the most likely period for visibility reductions from
11-13z. Whether or not we see accumulation will depend on if we
manage to saturate the lower levels, with any accumulations
under a few hundredths of an inch.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts.
MON...VFR. Wind SE 5kts.
TUE...VFR, chc -TSRA/MVFR early. Wind SE to NW 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CDT this
     evening for Benton-Chippewa-Douglas-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac
     Qui Parle-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Pope-Sherburne-Stearns-
     Stevens-Swift-Todd.
WI...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Strus
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...TDH