800
FXUS63 KMPX 180543
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1243 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- After today, temperatures will be within 10 degrees of either
  side of normal the next 7 days.

- Breezy conditions through the first half of next week, with
  the windiest period being Monday night into Tuesday morning,
  when wind gusts over 40 mph will be possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

At 2pm, a cold front was just crossing the I-35 corridor. A warm
nose at h7 and dry air above that has really limited precip
development along it this far north. We have seen some storms
develop from northeast KS toward southeast MN, with the CAMS showing
this activity zippering its way up the boundary late this afternoon,
which may allow a brief shower into Eau Claire, though the best rain
chances look to come east of the MPX area. Behind the front, there
will be modest cold advection, but it`s just strong enough to bring
our temperatures back down near normal, but not much more than that.
For Saturday, we`ll see mainly cloudy skies by the afternoon as the
trough currently moving into northern Montana swings through. This
wave will be strengthening as it goes across MN and we`re seeing an
increased signal for some light rain ahead of it along and south of
the I-94 corridor, so did increase PoPs above what the NBM quite a
bit to get some better precip mentions in the forecast for Saturday
afternoon. It won`t be a washout, or very heavy, but most areas
along and south of the I-94 corridor should see a brief period of
light rain, with amounts under a tenth of an inch.

For Sunday through Monday, we`ll see a trough come out of the
Canadian Rockies that will deepen into a closed low over MN on
Tuesday. We`ll be in line for this systems dry slot, so we won`t see
much precip with it in the MPX area, but we will see plenty of wind.
We`ll really start to see southerly winds pick up Sunday night, but
it`s behind the cold front Monday afternoon through Monday night
that looks to bring our strongest winds. Monday afternoon should see
gusts in western MN up near 35 kts with deep mixing bringing down
some stronger winds, but it`s Monday night that has the potential
for the strongest winds. This is when we see an isallobaric high
move in, along with strong CAA as winds switch from the west to
northwest. GFS BUFKIT soundings show potential gusts over 40 kts in
western MN, so we`ll have to watch this period for the potential for
wind headlines. By Tuesday afternoon, we`ll see high pressure moving
in from the Dakotas, with the winds and gusts starting to pull back.

For the rest of the week, we`ll have lighter winds and cooler
temperatures on Wednesday as high pressure moves through, but for
Thursday and Friday, winds turn southerly and we`ll start to see
highs in the 60s growing in coverage each day. It looks dry to end
the week and if you`re looking for the potential for a stronger
system, you need to look on the 10-12 day window. This is when a
deep trough will be coming out of the Rockies, with the potential
increasing for a more meaningful weather system for the local area
around the 27th/28th of October.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

VFR conditions with another frontal passage to focus on this
period. Winds will increase and shift northwesterly behind the
front. Hi-res models continue to show a period of -SHRA as the
upper level trough moves overhead a few hours after the surface
front. Impacts look to be on the lower with the showers being
light and relatively progressive. Highest confidence for 2-3
hours of -SHRA is at KRWF, KMKT, and KEAU where more moisture
will be available to tap into.

KMSP...Kept the Prob30 for -SHRA in, but removed visibility
reductions and adjusted the timing slightly. With the rain
moving quickly and uncertainty with the areal extent of
showers, it is not expected that it will rain during the whole 3
hour period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind WNW 10-15G20kts.
MON...VFR. Wind S-NW 10-15G25kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G30kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...BED