176
FXUS63 KMPX 110840
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
240 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another snow-bearing system arrives late tomorrow morning in
  western MN and spreads southeast into southern MN during the
  afternoon/evening. About 1-2" of snow is expected.

- Bitter cold this weekend, coldest Sunday morning with wind
  chills dropping from -30 to -35F.

- A big warm-up looks possible for the first half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Cloud cover tonight has created a stark contrast in overnight lows.
Where it`s clear, temperatures have bottomed out to within 5 degrees
of zero. Meanwhile, cloudier regions remain in the teens. Overcast
skies will develop this morning as our next clipper system arrives.
Highs as a result will only warm into the mid to upper teens.
Flurries are possible from central MN into western WI today, but the
majority of the snow is forecast to fall in southwest MN, close to
the strong thermal gradient and mid-level forcing of the clipper.
Snow will start in far western MN by mid-morning and slowly spread
southeast into southern MN by early afternoon. The snow will end
across western MN late afternoon and then southern MN by tonight as
the system slides into the Midwest. Snowfall amounts aren`t forecast
to be too heavy, but 1-2" is possible across our far southwestern MN
counties, particularly along I-90 near Fairmont. Travel may be a
little difficult in this region Thursday afternoon/evening, as
partially snow covered roads could result. Thursday night`s lows
won`t cool too much (only the single digits to low teens) due to
continued overcast skies.

A cold front will move east across MN and into WI by Friday
afternoon. A few snow showers are possible ahead of the front during
the morning and early afternoon hours, but accumulations should only
be cosmetic. Northwesterly winds will also increase as the front
passes with gusts reaching 25-35 MPH. This could cause areas of
reduced visibilities as any freshly fallen snow could blow around,
particularly in the rural areas of central and western MN. However,
the biggest concern with this cold front is the very cold, Arctic
air that will proceed it. Deterministic models forecast an
Arctic airmass with 850 hPa temperatures near -28 C and an
attendant surface high pressure to move into the Northern
Plains/Upper Midwest by this weekend. Temperatures will begin
their plummet Friday night as lows are forecast in the mid-
negative teens in central MN while negative single digits are
progged for southern MN. Highs Saturday won`t be fun either as
values will struggle to rise above 0 with negative single digits
looking likely for most of our CWA. The low point looks to be
Saturday night as the NBM has temperatures at least in the
negative teens with negative 20s likely for most of our MN
counties. If these temperatures weren`t alarming, the wind chill
values during this time period should be. While winds will slow
after Friday, they should still be steady enough to greatly
affect the "feels like" temperature. Wind chill values are
forecast to be at least -20 F for most of the area Friday night
and Saturday night with central and western MN having a good
chance at seeing -30s. Winds during the day Saturday could get
breezy such that wind chill values don`t really improve even
with sun. Due to this, cold weather headlines will be needed in
future updates for at least a portion of this weekend.

Sunday looks to be slightly warmer but still decently cold for this
time of year. However, a big warm-up looks likely to happen for
Tuesday and Wednesday as upper-level ridging moves into the Northern
Plains. Nearly all of the area is currently forecast to have highs
near or above freezing each of these days, which would be drastic
change from what we`ll experience this weekend. If you like more
traditional winter temperatures, temperatures are favored to cool
slightly after Wednesday with highs and lows more towards normal.
But, if you want continued chances at snow, long-range models don`t
suggest any significant chances for precipitation Saturday through
most of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1036 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Some isolated flurries around southern MN at initialization will
diminish shortly into the early morning hours. The cloud shield
over mainly eastern MN into western WI will slowly continue to
erode eastward through the overnight hours, resulting in VFR
conditions for AXN-RWF, possibly STC-MKT, while MSP and the WI
TAF sites look to remain within MVFR ceilings through at least
sunrise. Another swath of snow looks to arrive late morning in
southwestern MN and progress ESE, impacting mainly RWF-MKT with
snow accumulation of around 1 inch. Going north and east from
there, potential accumulations drop off to around a trace. Any
and all snowfall tomorrow looks diminish by late evening with
MVFR, possibly IFR, ceilings remaining in place Thursday evening
into Friday morning. NW winds early this morning will go
light/variable then pick up from the SE from sunrise onward with
speeds 10kts or less.

KMSP...Kept the TAF fairly simple as the MVFR cloud shield is
not expected to move away from MSP airspace. NW winds at
initialization will go light/variable before sunrise then pick
up from the SE at 5-10kts late morning through the rest of the
TAF period. Still a chance of some snow showers/light snow for
the afternoon-evening push, but any accumulations will be very
light, a trace to a couple tenths of an inch.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MVFR/SN early. VFR late. Wind NW 10-15G20 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10G20kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind W early, bcmg S 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...JPC