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FXUS63 KMPX 261901
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
101 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler & dry through Friday afternoon.

- Another organized system will move through the region Friday
  night into Saturday, with the southern half of Minnesota
  seeing the best chance for a plowable snowfall.

- Near zero to below zero low temperatures Sunday night/Monday
  morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1258 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Light snow persists across western Wisconsin as the 992mb sfc low
pressure treks across the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Conditions
have dried out, but remain breezy across Minnesota. Patchy blowing
snow has been observed so some isolated travel impacts cannot be
ruled out. It has been quite the shift from Fall to Winter over the
last 24 hours, but it`s been well advertised. Temperatures remain in
the twenties this afternoon with temperatures cooling into the upper
teens and lower 20s overnight. Skies remain cloudy into Thanksgiving
day, but the winds relax overnight as the low pressure continues
northeastward into Canada. Thanksgiving day will be similar to today
without the wind element. Highs in the upper 20s with mostly cloudy
skies but nw winds around 10 to 15 mph. Friday will be similar with
a few peaks of sunshine possible Friday morning ahead of our next
organized system.

Friday night through Sunday... this period will bring a long
duration snow storm out of the Plains and into the Midwest. An
initial band of snowfall develops upstream over the Dakotas on Friday
driven by WAA running into the cold air, promoting a region of FGEN
& forcing. This band of snow will move into SW MN Friday evening and
slowly turn eastward Friday night as the sfc low takes shape over
the Plains. The Plains low will move into Missouri/Iowa by Saturday
& precip blossoms over the Midwest. Model solutions diverge on the
exact direction from here with some models like the ECMWF taking the
sfc low feature into NW Indiana while the GFS or ECMWF AIFS bring it
into S WI. Snowfall over S MN will be likely -  but to what extent
remains uncertain. This event will likely be a light snow event with
moderate bursts over 24 to 36 hours for portions of S MN. Event
totals could very well be several inches when it`s finished. The
h700 low position varies with the stronger/snowier solutions for
MN/WI (MPX CWA) further NW from the sfc low. The weaker, drier
solutions are more vertically stacked and limit the forcing that
overrides the inverted sfc trough feature. Either solution we`ll
likely see light snow Saturday across much of the region but how
much will need to pump the brakes. There is high enough confidence
to say the highest amounts of snow will likely fall along & to the
south of the I-90 corridor with this event. The uncertainty is how
much moisture/forcing extend north of there. This set up is one
where I`d like more guidance under my belt before making a decision
on potential winter headlines as the heaviest precip occurs along
our border region & we`re still 60 hours out from the start of any
light precipitation. Snow character will likely be 15 to 18:1 SLRs
or a more light & fluffy snow vs wet cement. Winds look like a non-
issue with speeds at or below 10 mph for the most part. This should
make blowing snow a non-factor.

Behind our system comes a potent wave of cold air to start the work
week. High temperatures struggle to warm into the mid teens with
lows at or below zero Sunday and Monday night. We`ll gradually warm
up into Wednesday when there is a signal for another system. This
system appears to be a more traditional Alberta Clipper that`ll
track through and produce a quick hit of light/fluffy snow. We`ll
take this one event at the time but an active stretch of Winter
weather is ahead of us as we begin the holiday season.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 101 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Light snow is coming to an end across western Wisconsin, where
MVFR visibility could persist into mid-afternoon at EAU.
Elsewhere, MVFR stratus will most likely stick around into the
evening at all terminals, but we could see some improvement to
VFR or even some scattering out tonight & overnight. Even if
ceilings do scatter out overnight, ceilings do look to fill back
in tomorrow morning with MVFR ceilings Thanksgiving afternoon.

Northwest winds gust around 30-35 kts early this afternoon with
gusts diminishing closer to 20-25 kts by sunset. Wind speeds
will drop to around 10 kts overnight & stay there through
Thursday morning, although gusts around 20 kts are likely at
times.

KMSP...Any clearing across central Minnesota this morning has
filled back in, so it is likely we will hold on to at least BKN
ceilings through the period. Guidance suggests an improvement to
VFR this evening & overnight, but regardless ceilings will be
hovering around the 3000 ft MVFR threshold for a while. Current
northwest winds gusting to 30-35 kts will begin diminishing this
afternoon, with gusts down to 20-25 kts this evening &
generally 20 kts or less overnight into tomorrow morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SN late. Wind W 5 kts.
SAT...MVFR/IFR -SN likely. Wind ENE 10-20 kts.
SUN...VFR. Slight chance AM snow. Wind WNW 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...ETA