584
FXUS63 KMPX 291147
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
647 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry conditions expected through Labor Day, with a lower
  end chance for a few isolated storms today & Saturday.

- Best chance for organized precipitation comes with an early
  Fall cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday.

- Mild, near-normal temperatures will persist through Tuesday,
  then noticeably cooler behind the cold front for the latter
  half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Regional radar shows an area of showers slowly progressing SE
across the MN/WI border early this morning. These will
continue through western WI for the first part of the day.
Another period of afternoon storms looks likely along the
stalled boundary over west-central to southeastern MN. The
extent of coverage is lower confidence, as highlighted by the
variability in recent CAMs, but with ~500-1500 J/kg of CAPE and
dewpoints in the 60s folks should not be surprised if they hear
a rumble of thunder this afternoon. Nothing to ruin outdoor
plans, and likely nothing severe with shear values less than 25
kts.

This weekend will feature more of the same, with the Canadian
high lingering over the Great Lakes and a slow moving boundary
draped along its western periphery. At the same time, an
embedded mid level shortwave will situate over the northern
Plains. It continues to look like the deepest moisture and best
forcing will be closer to South Dakota and Iowa than Minnesota,
but folks may still see an isolated shower during
Saturday/Sunday afternoon (primarily in SW/S MN). Temperatures
through Labor day will be fairly consistent with highs in the
70s and lows in the 50s.

The next period to watch will be mid next week as a rather
impressive upper low attempts to dig down into the Upper
Midwest. Long range guidance brings an attendant cold front
through the region some time Tuesday into Wednesday. The Euro is
maybe the most bullish, with a broad area of 850mb temps below
0C on Thursday. While the highest confidence PoPs (40-50%) are
tied to the frontal passage, impacts from this system may linger
through the end of the week. Strong CAA on the backside of the
low should lead to gusty winds and below normal temperatures for
at least a couple days. I suspect we may see an increase in
Midwesterners wearing jackets come Thursday... though who am I
to question a Midwesterner`s unwavering will to hold off any
sign of an approaching winter.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Current TAFs are tracking well with rain moving across western
WI, with only change there to reduce vsbys in the rain, with
those ranging from 2sm to 6sm. Main area of debate for the
afternoon was whether or not to pull Prob30s for TS with latest
CAMS backing away on coverage of showers this afternoon.
However, we are still seeing them pop of a few showers along a
pool of higher dewpoints from roughly AXN to RST, so for
continuity, left those prob30s in for now. Depending on how
cloud cover trends Friday night, fog could become problematic
going into Saturday morning. For the moment, the HREF favors fog
Friday night developing over WI, so only have vsby reductions
at RNH/EAU.

KMSP...I suppose if you round up, you can get to a 30% chance
for thunderstorms this afternoon... HRRR continues to favor
showers this afternoon staying west of MSP, but close enough to
keep the PROB30 going, for now...

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind SE 5 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind SSE 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...MPG