366
FXUS63 KMPX 051954
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
254 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers & thunderstorms chances continue across eastern & southern
  Minnesota and western Wisconsin this evening.

- Cooler temperatures arrive tonight, with patchy frost possible
  Tuesday night in western Wisconsin. This will be short-lived
  with highs returning to the 70s by Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Current radar imagery highlights a band of showers & thunderstorms
over the MN/WI border. These will continue to move east into WI and
bring a quick tenth of an inch of rain. Additional development
remains possible across S MN this afternoon and into the evening
hours. Latest hires guidance has this redevelopment between 22z and
00z across S/SE MN. Forecast soundings depict a few 100 j/kg of
SBCAPE that should be enough to lead to intermittent rumbles of
thunder. These showers could graze the S/E Twin Cities metro
before moving into W WI this evening and overnight. The latest
QPF has trended up to 0.50"+ for W WI overnight - must needed
rain given the recent stretch of warm & dry weather conditions.
Winds shift to the northwest behind the passing cold front this
evening & gusts taper off overnight. Lows will bottom out in the
40s & 50s tonight as cooler air settles in behind the departing
system.

For this upcoming work week, surface high pressure builds into the
region the first half of the week. This high pressure will support
clear skies & light winds - allowing overnight temperatures to fall
into the in the 30s and 40s Monday & Tuesday night. This could lead
to patchy frost across portions of central MN and western WI.
Temperatures may even flirt with freezing across NW WI early
Wednesday morning. This high pressure will shift east mid-week,
allowing southerly flow to return across the Upper Midwest.
Temperatures will slowly warm throughout the week with highs in the
low to mid 70s by Thursday. This stretch of seasonably warm
temperatures looks to continue into mid-October, too. Unfortunately,
after today there isn`t a clear signal for any meaningful rain
through the rest of the forecast period. There is a chance for some
isolated showers Thursday afternoon but nothing that would bring
widespread rain.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Strong south-southwesterly 25-35kt gusts will continue through
the remainder of the daylight hours today. Winds will decrease
and shift to the northwest this evening as a cold front moves
through the region. Wind gusts are expected to fall off after
midnight with sustained NW winds aob 10kts through the
remainder of the TAF. We will need to monitor the potential for
additional SHRA/TSRA development this afternoon and evening.
I have maintained the PROB30s with a slight tweak to the timing
to match trends in hires guidance. It is possible that we will
need to include a mention of thunder to other sites, but kept TS
in at EAU where confidence is highest. VFR conditions through
the period, but there is potential for MVFR vsby with heavier
SHRA this evening for RNH/EAU.

KMSP... Recent radar trends have a secondary line of -SHRA
approaching the Twin Cities metro, but it has been on a downward
trend over the last hour. The best chances for additional SHRA
will be in the 20-24Z time frame. There is a window between
22-24Z that will TS development to the southeast of the
terminal. This may require the additional of VCTS once
confidence increases. We will monitor and AMD if necessary.


/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind S 5-15 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind S 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...BPH