824
FXUS63 KMPX 100522
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1122 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong system to bring an intense and narrow band of heavy
  snow this afternoon and evening along and north of the I-94
  corridor. The rain/snow line has shifted slightly southwest
  of the Twin Cities metro, with a strong snowfall gradient
  expected from southwest to northeast across the metro.

- A Winter Weather Advisory issued across southwestern Minnesota
  tonight until Wednesday morning for strong winds up to 55mph,
  blowing snow, and reduced visibilities.

- A 2-4 hour period of freezing rain/drizzle potential wrapping
  up along and just south of the I-94 corridor as
  precipitation initially moves in through the rest of this
  afternoon.

- Strong winds are expected tonight southwest of the low`s
  track, with gusts of 30-40 mph possible south of the I-94
  corridor. Falling snow with strong winds could lead to reduced
  visibilities, especially across southwestern Minnesota.

- Multiple chances of light snow will be possible Wednesday
  through Saturday. Only minor accumulations would occur with
  any additional snowfall we see after today.

- Very cold temperatures settle in by this weekend with wind
  chills approaching cold weather advisory criteria Friday night
  and Saturday night.&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

A mixed bag of wintry precipitation continues to make its way
east into Minnesota this afternoon. Radar imagery shows the line
of winter weather extending from Little Falls down through the
TC Metro to near Red Wing. Latest mesoscale analysis showing
that 850-700mb forcing is lagging a bit still near MN/Dakotas
border, however it is still expected that this region of mid-
level forcing will make its way east over the next several hours
and produce heavy snowfall rates in excess of 1"/hr along and
north of the I-94 corridor. Using the latest trends in forecast
guidance, another nudge south was made to snowfall amounts
leaving areas mainly along the I-94 corridor including the TC
metro in the 2-4 inch range whereas areas north and east of the
I-94 corridor could see up to 5-7 inches.

Farther to the southwest of the main snowfall region is the warm
sector of this system which is located over western and southern
MN. Concerns for a short 2 to 4hr period continue for a region
of freezing rain. Warm advection this afternoon will raise
temperatures into the mid 30s especially south of the MN River
Valley and along the Buffalo Ridge which aligns with freezing
rain is already being reported in those areas. Given where
confidence was strongest for warm advection reach, adjusted
forecast mentions of freezing precip east towards a line that
extends west from Grant County in western MN down through
Filmore County in southeastern Minnesota. The main precip shield
clears southern Minnesota this evening, which then provides a
short lull of mainly drizzle or freezing drizzle and then
transitions to all snow overnight. Overall ice accumulations of
a light glaze can be expected.

the next "segment" of this system that follows quickly in tow of
our snow/freezing rain mentions is the increased wind speeds
across the area. As of now, winds along and north of the I-94
corridor will be breezy with 30-35mph wind gusts however in
areas south and west of the MN River Valley, are expected to
reach 50 to 55 mph overnight. These winds, combined with falling
snow will lead to rapid reductions in visibility, thus went
with a strongly worded Winter Weather Advisory for southwestern
Minnesota starting tonight until Wednesday morning. Regardless,
gusty winds, blowing snow, and recently falling freezing
precipitation will make for difficult travel conditions this
evening through tonight. So try to avoid being out on the roads
if possible or allow for extra travel time.

Most snowfall is expected to end Wednesday around sunrise,
perhaps a band or two of deformation snow may develop on the
back side the departing low mid-Wednesday morning however
additional accumulation from that episode of snow would amount
to less than a half-inch. Gusty winds will also weaken as our
previous low distances itself away from the northern plains.
Forecast highs Wednesday into the lower 20s Wednesday and then
the teens on Thursday. Another system does encroach on the
northern plains Thursday into Friday however this one looking
much less impressive than today`s system. Luckily, the p-type
for this event favors all snow with accumulations up to an inch
or two across southern Minnesota.

As we enter the weekend, the forecast turns cold. Forecast highs
Saturday and Sunday will range a degree or two above or below
zero with wind chills ranging well below zero. Cold weather
advisory headlines may potentially be needed as wind chills
reach -25 to -30 below zero Saturday Night. As we enter next
week, the cold blast looks to be short lived as h850 5-Day Temp
Anomalies jump right back up to 10-15 degrees above normal
hinting that a potential winter warm-up could be on the horizon
by that time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1102 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Main swath of precip has just about diminished and shifted east,
but now the backside secondary swath of precip is developing
over central MN and overall dropping southward across MN/WI at
initialization. The dry slot is quite evident in radar imagery
and also in sfc obs, which have a bunch of -FZDZ reports. But as
the atmosphere replenishes sufficient moisture, the swath of
mainly -SN will drop through from initialization through about
10z-12z, with visibilities down as low as 1-2sm and ceilings
into IFR. Ceilings will generally run MVFR for much of tomorrow,
with VFR conditions quite viable during Wednesday evening. The
biggest issue may well be winds as they are currently shifting
to NW with the passage of the main low. Speeds will also
appreciably increase to near 20G35kts, with higher speeds
already being reported in far western MN. Speeds will diminish
late Wednesday into Wednesday night.

KMSP...Light FZDZ at the start will quickly transition to -SN as
the swath of precip arrives from the north. Rates will be rather
light with this next batch of snow, nothing expected over 0.5
in/hr, if that much, as only around an inch total of additional
accumulation is expected. Snow will wane prior to sunrise, but
the increase in winds may result in some blowing snow visibility
issues. Strong NW winds will persist throughout this TAF set,
and there is a small chance of some flurries or snow showers
midday Wednesday, but these will be of little consequence if
they occur at all. Improving conditions expected during
Wednesday afternoon, with VFR conditions likely Wednesday night.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR. Chc -SN. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
FRI...MVFR/SN early. VFR late. Wind NW 10-15G20 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10G20kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for Blue
     Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Dakota-Douglas-Faribault-
     Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le
     Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Redwood-
     Renville-Rice-Scott-Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift-
     Waseca-Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine.
     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Wednesday for Anoka-Benton-
     Chisago-Isanti-Kanabec-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Sherburne-Todd-
     Washington.
WI...Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM CST Wednesday for Barron-
     Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for Pepin-
     Pierce.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...JPC