644
FXUS63 KMPX 062038
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
238 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow continues to spread east this afternoon. Several inches
  of snow accumulation are possible in southern MN with lower
  amounts to the north.

- Cold to end the weekend with highs only in the single digits
  in MN on Sunday.

- Multiple chances for snow the first half of next week, with
  the most significant being Tuesday into Tuesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Tonight...Light snow is falling across portions of central
Minnesota, including at our office in Chanhassen, with heavier
rates across southwest Minnesota into Iowa. The latest surface
analysis places the low somewhere over the central SD/NE border,
with hi- res models tracking it down towards the IA/MO border.
This keeps the heaviest rates and highest totals well into Iowa,
though a solid few inches remain on the table for southern
Minnesota. A line from Canby towards Mankato can expect around
1 to 3 inches, while locations near I-90 could reach up to 3 to
5 inches. Locally higher amounts to around 6 inches are possible
south of I-90, though the trend has been for the swath of
heaviest snow to push farther south into Iowa. Amounts decrease
from around an inch to a dusting north of the current Winter
Weather Advisory. Snow will taper off from west to east this
evening in western MN, and late tonight in southeast MN and
western WI.

Sunday through Monday...Temperatures drop behind the Clipper,
with widespread lows below zero for western and central
Minnesota. The extent to which we cool could be limited by how
much clearing we get at night with some scattered low clouds
potentially hanging around past midnight. The more we clear, the
more we will cool down. That said, surface high pressure will
sprawl over the region which should support more sinking air.
One small change with the forecast is an additional chance for
an area of light snow Sunday night into Monday morning. Forecast
soundings highlight low level WAA on the backside of the high
as southerly winds flow over cooler air near the boundary layer.
This could provide enough lift and moisture to create a
scenario for a few extra tenths of an inch to wake up to Monday
morning. Our current thinking best aligns with the 15z RAP
solution, giving the best chance somewhere across west-central
Minnesota into central Minnesota.

Our Clipper train continues into next week, with a chance again
for light snow Monday night. The latest NBM paints the swath
of heaviest totals (around 1-2") across northeast MN into
northern WI. There is pretty solid agreement across the long
range ensembles for this track, and we have no reason to go
against this solution. Amounts around an inch or so will be
possible for areas north of the I-94 corridor, with only a
dusting to a half inch expected along and south of that line.
Temperatures do rebound on Monday with the low tracking north of
our area, shifting winds out of the south.

Tuesday through Saturday...Southerly winds continue ahead of our
next Clipper Tuesday, allowing most of the region to climb near
or above freezing during the day. An anomalously strong low
pressure system is forecast to develop out of the Canadian
Rockies and progress southeast through the northern Plains into
the Great Lakes. The 12z suite of deterministic global guidance
generally produces a deeper low than ensembles, with the
American, Euro, and Canadian all projecting a sub-990mb low as
it tracks through Minnesota and Wisconsin. The exact path it
takes will determine where the heaviest band of snow will fall.
For what it is worth, the Euro AIFS remains the most southerly
solution (with a stripe of the highest totals right along the
I-94 corridor), with the rest of guidance not much farther north
of I-94. One thing to keep an eye on will be how far south the
Monday night wave digs, as it could indicate a better idea of
how far south the Tuesday wave will be able to extend. In terms
of totals, this system has the best chance to produce plowable
(and potentially significant) snow compared to other systems
over the next week. PWAT values will be near 200% of normal
thanks to the atmospheric river off the coast of the Pacific
Northwest, and there will be plenty of forcing associated with
the deepening low. One caveat that could make the forecast
tricky will be precipitation types, with temperatures creeping
near or above freezing. Areas on the southern side of the low
will have the best chance of seeing rain or a wintry mix.

Following the Tuesday system, we will gradually cool down each
day through the end of the week, reaching widespread lows
below zero by Saturday morning. We remain in the northwest flow
pattern aloft, meaning there will be additional chances for snow
with any kinks that develop within the flow.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1126 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

The heaviest snow with this system will track across Iowa & SW
Minnesota. Lighter snow up into southern MN and RWF/MKT areas
with a few inches of accumulation. Latest radar & guidance
trends look to keep MSP and terminals north mostly dry. I have
kept a period of MVFR snow in at MSP for now. Late tonight,
skies are expected to clear out from west to east. For winds,
speeds will be under 10 kts this period. We`ll see directions
become NNE this morning, turning back to the NNW overnight.

KMSP...Recent obs upstream show light snow, but radar trends
indicate the primary system across SW MN will remain to the
south of MSP terminal. There is still a window of light snow
likely, falling between the 21z to 4z window. Accumulations
appear to be less than half an inch of new snow.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SN late night. Wind N 5-10 kts.
MON...MVFR cigs. Chc -SN in mrng. Wind SW 10-15 kts.
TUE...VFR early, MVFR/IFR late with -RASN. Wind S 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for Blue
     Earth-Brown-Faribault-Freeborn-Martin-Nicollet-Redwood-
     Steele-Waseca-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...BPH