058
FXUS63 KMPX 192031
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
331 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Smoke continues to linger across far eastern Minnesota and
  Wisconsin into Monday. See Air Quality Alert for more
  information.

- Thunderstorms likely tonight and early Monday. A few storms
  may be strong or severe.

- A short period of hazardous heat and humidity Monday afternoon
  before turning cooler for midweek.

- Hot temperatures return next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Visibilities are improving slowly this afternoon as surface smoke
density decreases. The worst visibility remaining is Eau Claire
with less than 3 miles. The smokey haze will continue through
tonight as the reservoir of smoke continues to drift to the
north and east around high pressure centered on the Great Lakes.
The smoke will primarily impact far eastern MN and WI where an
Air Quality Alert is in effect through Monday morning.

The atmosphere is stable this afternoon, but low level moisture
is increasing across the eastern Dakotas. An upper trough will
approach tonight and moisture advection will spread east.
Clusters of thunderstorms are expected to develop across the
Dakotas this evening. As the base of the trough begins to
arrive, the mid level jet will strengthen to 50+ kts resulting
in more than enough bulk shear. Steep lapse rates will work east
across the Plains overnight. An increasing LLJ will feed the
clusters/MCS as it continues southeast. CAMs remain supportive
of this activity tracking across central and eastern Minnesota
into western Wisconsin late tonight and early Monday morning.
The main severe risk is damaging wind. The degree of this threat
will depend on the strength of capping and whether any organized
cold pools can develop. There is a level 1 of 5 risk for the
entire CWA.

The morning activity should clear to the southeast early enough
to allow recovery to occur throughout the day. The surface cold
front will be located from northwest WI to southwest MN around
midday. Dew point pooling with the front and quick heating
following the morning storms as a thermal ridge overspreads the
region will bring a short period of hazardous heat during the
afternoon. Dew points may rise into the upper 70s across
southern MN, bringing heat indices to the 100-105 degree range.
Farther north with the earlier passage of the cold front, dew
points will peak early afternoon before drier air follows.
Thermal ridging will remain in place through the afternoon, and
given better boundary layer mixing behind the front, temperatures
will rise more easily. Therefore, heat indices in the metro
area may peak early afternoon, then hold steady or slowly fall
for the rest of the afternoon while air temperatures rise into
the low to mid 90s. As for thunderstorm redevelopment later in
the day, the front should clear most of the CWA before
initiation occurs. There is a small chance a few storms fire in
a corridor from Albert Lea to Rice Lake and Eau Claire late
afternoon, but the better bet is across IA into central WI.

Cooler and less humid air returns by midweek. Highs in the
upper 70s to low 80s and lows in the 50s or 60s will bring much
needed relief from the recent heat. Ridging will return to the
central U.S. next weekend. The Upper Midwest will be on the
northern periphery this time instead of directly beneath it, so
this may begin a more active convective pattern heading into
next week. There will be some very hot air over the Plains that
should occasionally move in. Highs by Sunday may be solidly in
the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Visibility reductions due to wildfire smoke continue to impact
RNH & EAU to open the 18z period. Followed hi-res &
observational trends to take a more optimistic approach in
removing smoke from RNH early in the period. On the flip side,
it looks like smoke will linger through at least the early
evening at EAU. Next item of note is growing confidence in a
round of thunderstorms at all terminals tonight. Followed
HREF/REFS clustering trends in upgrading PROB30s to TEMPOs at
most sites and also made slight timing adjustments. The passage
of a cold front will end convective chances Monday morning and
winds will turn westerly towards the end of the period.

KMSP...Few more hours of VFR smoke, then a quiet stretch with
high clouds and southerly surface flow. We wanted to message
increasing confidence in a round of convection overnight, so
upgraded the PROB30 to a TEMPO for 2SM TSRA between 8-11z.
Storms should be fairly progressive and will be followed by a
cold frontal passage and associated wind shift to out of the WNW
through the day.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind N/NW 5 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Heat Advisory from noon to 6 PM CDT Monday for Anoka-Carver-
     Dakota-Goodhue-Hennepin-Ramsey-Rice-Scott-Washington.
     Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Monday for Blue Earth-
     Brown-Faribault-Freeborn-Le Sueur-Martin-Nicollet-Sibley-
     Steele-Waseca-Watonwan.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...Strus