301
FXUS63 KMPX 300531
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1231 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions continue this afternoon through Friday night,
  with scattered showers returning on Saturday followed by more
  persistent and widespread rain Monday through Tuesday.

- Temperatures are forecast to remain above normal through the
  middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Latest water vapor imagery details upper-level troughing near the
Hudson Bay region. To our west, ridging extends into the southern
Canadian Prairies and is allowing for zonal flow over the northern
plains. A 1025mb sfc high is the primary culprit for today`s
beautiful conditions. This high pressure continues to erode the
blanket of low stratus over the northern half of MN and WI from
early this morning. With plentiful sunshine expected for the
rest of this afternoon, temperatures should reach the the upper
50s for most sites otherwise areas from a line northwest of Mora
down to Benson can expect lower 50s. A band of mid-level cu
that exists over the Dakotas moves in this evening which belongs
to a weak sfc low. Luckily, this low is starved of any moisture
therefore PoPs will remain null tonight. If you do have any
evening plans, you may want to grab the jacket as lows dip down
into the upper 30s for most. A few sites north and east of a
line from Little Falls over to Ladysmith could dabble into the
upper 20s. Northwesterly winds will continue to decrease through
this evening and becoming light and variable overnight.

Tomorrow`s forecast will be similar to what we have seen today
although a few more clouds will be lingering around. The
previously mentioned troughing pattern slides farther east and
will pull its trailing surface cold front northward late Friday
into Saturday. This northward retreat will help some moisture
filter back into our neck of the woods and provide rain chances
on Saturday. Based off latest NBM guidance, the strongest
chances for precip remain across south-central MN. As of right
now, any trick or treating plans do not appear to be a washout
from rain but you may want to keep an umbrella handy. Saturday`s
temps will warm into the mid to upper-50s and lows near 50.
Given those temps, at this point, it is safe to say we will
dodge another 1991 Halloween Blizzard experience.

The next rain maker arrives early next week as a low develops on the
lee side of the Rockies and is progged straight east. The current
track of this low remains to our south however enough moisture looks
to be in place to provide additional widespread rainfall. Although
we are still few days out, 12z ensemble guidance appears to be in
fair agreement that most locations could see QPF of at least 0.5" or
greater by Tuesday morning. As for temps in the extend period, h850
temperatures continue to run at least 3-8 degrees warmer than
seasonal normals which by this time range in low 50s/upper 40s while
lows range in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

High pressure overhead will result in calm winds tonight that
will transition to light ESE winds for Friday into Friday night.
We`ll have a batch of mid-level clouds move across central MN
and western WI tonight, followed by mostly sunny skies much of
Friday. By Friday afternoon, we`ll start to see clouds coming
out of the Plains moving into southern MN. By the end of this
period, we`ll have MVFR cigs either at, or on the doorstep of
RWF and MKT.

KMSP...No issues until late in this period, with MVFR cigs
expected to move into MSP between 6z and 12z Saturday, with
scattered showers not too far beyond 12z Saturday as well.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR. Chc -SHRA. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
MON...MVFR/IFR. SHRA. Wind SE 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...MPG