984
FNUS73 KMPX 010930
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for White Bear WMA Rx Burn...MN DNR
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
430 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on June 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...For the White Bear WMA Rx Burn, expect mostly sunny
skies with light westerly winds throughout the day. Temperatures
will be in the mid to upper 70s by this afternoon with RH values
around 35-40%.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Temperature.........65 at ignition...Max 75.
RH..................63 percent at ignition...Min 38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 7 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    West winds 7 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /16500 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /109400 knot-ft/ increasing to
                    excellent (113400 knot-ft) late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......1700 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 8200 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 18 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM
Sky cover.......CLR CLR CLR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR PC  PC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............65  67  70  72  73  74  75  75  75  74  72  68
RH..............63  59  51  46  44  41  40  38  40  43  48  54
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW
20 FT wind spd..7   8   9   10  9   9   10  9   8   6   6   5
20 FT wind gust.10  13  14  15  15  14  14  14  13  10  8   8
Mix hgt (kft)...1.7 3.3 4.6 5.5 6.5 7.3 8.2 7.6 5.5 3.1 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.12  13  14  14  17  17  18  17  14  10  8   6
Haines index....4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Temperature.........Min 56.
RH..................Max 83 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 8 mph shifting to the southeast
                    6 to 7 mph late in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (65800 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (2000 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 6 to 14 mph shifting to the south around 6
                    mph late in the evening, then shifting to the
                    southeast 6 to 9 mph late in the evening
                    shifting to the south around 10 mph early in
                    the morning.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers in the morning. Chance of rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
                    early in the afternoon, then rain showers
                    likely and chance of thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 77.
RH..................Min 56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 8 to 17 mph shifting to the
                    south 18 to 21 mph in the afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3800 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (83300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (97100
                    knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 18 mph increasing to 31 to 32 mph.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Dye
Requested by...Jason Strege
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2415412.0/MPX
.DELDT 06/01/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Jason.Strege@state.mn.us