572
FXUS63 KMQT 271735
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1235 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- While lightening up over the west today through tonight, lake
  effect snowfall continues across the northwest to north-
  northwest wind snow belts. Some snowfall could accumulate up
  to 1/2 or more per hour at times. Thus, Winter Weather
  Advisories have been issued for most of the lakeshore counties
  of the west half today as recovery efforts continue.

- Strong winds and lake effect snow bands continue over the east
  half today. Snowfall could accumulate at 1+ inch per hour
  still in some of the stronger bands. Blowing snow may also
  reduce visibilities as well. Thus, the Blizzard Warning and
  Winter Storm Warnings continue over the east half today.

- Northwest to north-northwest gales up to 45 kts persist across
  Lake Superior this morning before dwindling to below gales
  Friday morning. Significant wave heights up to 21 ft are being
  seen this morning, with the highest waves in the east between
  Marquette and Munising.

- Minor lakeshore flooding and beach erosion continues over the
  tip of the Keweenaw and the areas east of the city of
  Marquette today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

As the low responsible for the snow dump over the western and
central U.P. yesterday into early this morning continues to move
away towards Quebec today, expect the lake effect snow showers
behind the low to continue as cold air advection continues to cycle
into the Upper Great Lakes. Over a foot of snowfall has fallen
across vast swaths of the western half of Upper MI over the past 36
hours, with the Gile, WI observer (just across the river from
Ironwood) reporting a storm total up to 25 inches as of early this
morning; several other spots ranging from Calumet down to Bergland
Dam/northshore of Lake Gogebic and Bessemer have reported numbers of
at least a foot, with some even suggesting 2 feet or more in the
Ironwood/Bessemer area (unverified though). Even here at the NWS
Marquette office, we`ve already have a storm total snowfall of 13.5
inches, and we missed out on the heaviest snow totals over here! In
addition, many places in the western half of the U.P. have lost
power, with the transition from rain to rapidly accumulating
snowfall with high winds reportedly causing several tree branches to
snap and land on/break powerlines, in addition to a few trees
(supposedly) being blown down. UPPCO late last night/early this
morning has urged its customers to be patient with their power
returning as line workers are having to repair any downed powerlines
with extra caution given the hazardous winter weather conditions.
With cold, arctic air looking to stay in place for the foreseeable
future, it looks like Winter has come roaring in like a lion this
year, with most of the area now guaranteed to see a White
Thanksgiving (and probably a White Christmas too, but that`s a
little too far out to predict with high confidence).

While strong troughing this morning will allow for heavy lake effect
snowfall over the northwest to north-northwest snow belts, as the
pressure gradient weakens over us today into Friday, expect the lake
effect snowfall to lighten up with it. In addition, the winds across
the area diminishes with the weakening pressure gradient too. Thus,
expect any remaining blizzard conditions to end across the U.P. this
morning, save for Alger County where stronger remnant troughing
allows gustier winds to continue along the lakeshore, and a Lake
Nipigon-connected snow band looks to keep heavy lake effect snow
going throughout the daylight hours; whiteout conditions could still
be realized in this snow band as snowfall rates could exceed 1 inch
per hour within it and blowing/drifting snow is possible from the
gusty winds. As of now, current CAMs keep this snow band mainly west
of Munising and just along or east of the Marquette County line (may
sneak into Skandia for a short time), with localized accumulations
over a foot possible between now and Friday morning in western Alger
County. Meanwhile, some stronger lake effect bands over the eastern
half of the U.P. could bring 6 to 12 inches of fluffy new snowfall
over the next 24 hours, with more than half of it falling before
tonight. As for the west half, with a weak shortwave ridge starting
to move overhead this morning, expect the lake effect snowfall to
generally become light, although some banding could bring 1/2 inch
or more snowfall rates at times, especially in the higher terrain
away from Lake Superior where upslope flow may help to boost
snowfall rates; overall, could see up to 4 new inches of fluffy
snow, with most of it falling in these higher elevation areas. The
Michigamme Highlands north of US-41 could receive an additional 6+
to locally even 12 inches today through tonight. However, expect
most of Marquette County from Harvey to Republic to receive around 3
to 6 inches today through tonight, with areas from K.I. Sawyer and
south seeing only 2 inches or less (the exception may be Skandia if
they can get under the Nipigon-connected lake effect band). Overall,
given the recovery efforts from the storm yesterday and the ongoing
lake-effect snowfall today, decided to hoist up some Winter Weather
Advisories for Gogebic, Ontonagon, Houghton, Baraga, and Marquette
behind the Blizzard Warnings through this afternoon. As for the
east, the Blizzard Warning and Winter Storm Warnings for Delta,
Schoolcraft, and Luce counties are good to continue until at least
this evening; after that, the dayshift may need to re-evaluate the
forecast to see if a Winter Weather Advisory needs to be hoisted up
for tonight or not.

While a subtle shortwave dropping southeast from Ontario could
reinvigorate lake effect snowfall for a short bit on Friday, another
weak shortwave ridge looks to bring a cessation to the LES (lake
effect snow) over at least the west half by Friday night; either
that, or at least reduce the LES to just flurries. There looks to be
enough of a fetch to keep light lake effect snow going over the
eastern half through Saturday as winds turn more westerly ahead of a
shortwave low lifting from the Southern Plains through the Great
Lakes region this weekend. As this does so, we could see lake effect
snow showers return to the northeast wind snow belts late Saturday,
with snowfall becoming lake enhanced once again as the low passes
through Lower MI Sunday morning. Given that this low is not expected
to be as strong as the one that just passed us (think around
1005mb), we could still see a few fluffy inches accumulate across
the U.P. as SLRs look to remain high due to the polar air persisting
over us. As the low races out of the St. Lawrence Seaway early next
week, we could see lake effect snow showers behind it turn to the
west wind snow belts and potentially even southwest wind snow belts
later on as high pressure ridging dives from the Northern Plains
into the Ohio River Valley. Below normal temperatures are expected
to continue through the forecast period, with the European EFI even
hinting at well below normal temperatures Monday through Tuesday;
the NBM even has us struggling to get above 20F those days as well.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

Brisk NW flow is keeping lake effect going today, though drier air
and gradually decreasing winds will work to improve restrictions
somewhat. MVFR ceilings are expected at all terminals, and drops in
visibility down to MVFR and even IFR remain possible in snow showers
and blowing snow (with the lower restrictions more likely at CMX and
SAW than at IWD). Snow showers largely end into early Friday morning
with drier air working in, though MVFR ceilings may linger.
Otherwise, NW winds continue to gust to around 20-30kts, possibly
higher at CMX this afternoon, then winds decrease slightly into
early Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 306 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

A low that has left Lake Superior to Quebec has brought high-end
gales and storm force winds up to 50 knots across Lake Superior over
the past 24-hours. As the low continues to pull away and the
pressure gradient over the Upper Great Lakes loosens, expect the
winds to weaken with time today through tonight; nevertheless,
expect northwest to north-northwesterly gales to continue until
Friday morning as the last of the storm force gusts looks to end by
around sunrise this morning. Significant wave heights of over 20
feet are being seen this morning between Marquette and Munising just
offshore; expect the waves to weaken in response to the winds today
through Friday. In addition, some light freezing spray is possible
today through Friday, before light winds of 20 knots or less return
to Lake Superior Friday night.

The light winds brought about by the shortwave ridging look to
eventually give way to northerly winds of 20 to 30 knots on Sunday
morning as another shortwave low lifts from the Southern Plains
through the Great Lakes this weekend; the NBM still has low-end gale
chances at 20% for Sunday. As the shortwave low continues lifting
and ejects out of the St. Lawrence Seaway early next week, expect
the winds to progressively back to the northwest and eventually west
Sunday afternoon into Monday as winds of 20 to 30 knots persist.
Given that even colder polar air is looking to move in early next
week, expect light to potentially even moderate freezing spray to
make a return with this shortwave`s passing and behind it.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     MIZ001-005.

  Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening
     for MIZ002>005-009-084.

  Blizzard Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ006.

  Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for MIZ006-007.

  Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ007-
     013-014-085.

Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ242-243-247-
     263.

  Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for LSZ244-264-265.

  Gale Warning until 11 PM EST this evening for LSZ245-246-248.

  Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for LSZ249>251-266-267.

Lake Michigan...
  Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...TAP