481
FXUS63 KMQT 011846
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
246 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures cool to near seasonal normal values in the upper 50s
to low 60s through the weekend.

-Widespread freeze is likely across the area Friday night. Most
areas will be below freezing. The interior west could reach the low
20s.

- Breezy conditions are expected this afternoon and Friday as winds
shift out of the west-northwest behind a cold front. Gusts of 30+
mph are likely near Lake Superior from the Keweenaw east to
Whitefish Point.

- Another system passing through the region this weekend brings
additional rain chances late Saturday into early Sunday. Winds
behind the cold front will be gusty, with a potential (20-40%) of
reaching gale conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Current satellite imagery shows some high-level stratiform cloud
cover remaining over the area behind the cold front moving eastward
out of the U.P. Skies are expected to clear out this evening
through tonight. Winds will continue to shift northerly behind the
cold front tonight and maintain strength at 15-20kts, making for
breezy overnight conditions. A combination of CAA and radiational
cooling from mostly clear skies overnight is expected to result in
temperatures reaching the upper 30s in the eastern U.P. and along
the lakeshore. The central western U.P. will likely see lows at or
just below freezing, resulting in freeze potential for the area.

Friday is expected to be breezy and cool as a building area of
surface high pressure progresses eastward into the Great Lakes
region. 850mb temperatures are expected to drop below freezing early
Friday morning, which could result in enough of a temperature
deficit with the lake surface to create scattered lake effect rain
showers for parts of the eastern U.P. Any precipitation that does
fall is expected to remain brief and light. Winds reduce in strength
and shift to southerly Friday night as the area of high pressure
moves over the area. With continued clear skies and limited mixing
due to weaker winds, Friday night`s lows will be below freezing for
nearly all areas inland from the lakeshore. The interior west could
see lows fall to the low 20s in some areas. Freeze headlines will
likely be needed.

Southerly winds continue Saturday, with highs in the low 60s. Cloud
cover returns Saturday afternoon. Precipitation chances increase
Saturday night as a cold front associated with a surface low in
southern Ontario progresses across the U.P. Current 24hr QPF
estimates from the NBM give probabilities of ~40% for greater than
one tenth of a chance of rain across the western and eastern U.P.,
with an ~30% chance for the central U.P. Chances above 30% for a
quarter of an inch of rain currently remain limited to the Keweenaw.
Overall, most areas could see a light rain, however, significant
rainfall amounts are unlikely. Northwesterly winds will pick up
behind the cold front. While inland areas will see winds around 10
mph, the NBM currently has chances for gale exceedance around 20-40%
for areas over water in the southeastern portion of Lake Superior.
Rain chances exit the area Sunday afternoon as surface high pressure
moves across the region. High pressure is expected to stick around,
bringing dry conditions in the early workweek.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 121 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all sites throughout the TAF period as
skies continue clearing over the UP. Winds will generally be between
northerly and westerly at around 10 kt with gusts around 20 kt. The
biggest exception is at SAW, where the early afternoon will feature
northeasterly winds. By Friday morning, some lake effect clouds will
be over SAW and CMX, lowest at CMX where it gets close to MVFR
thresholds but currently has less than a 1-in-3 chance to fall below
3kft, with cloud bases lifting and cloud coverage scattering for the
early afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 246 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Lake Superior: Currently, winds are westerly over the western arm of
the lake and northwesterly over the eastern lake at around 15kts.
Winds shift northwesterly tonight and increase in speed up to around
20kts across the lake. Wind speeds continue to increase to around
25kts in the southeastern lake through Friday afternoon. Some gusts
could reach up to gale-force, however, given the limited likelihood,
the small craft advisories will remain tomorrow`s headline for now.
Waves in the western and northern lake will be 3-6ft, while heights
will reach 6-9ft in the southeast due to the increase in
northwesterly winds. Friday night into Saturday, winds shift
southerly at around 10kts as surface high pressure moves into the
area. Wave heights will remain below 3 feet across the lake through
Saturday afternoon. Saturday evening, southerly winds increase to 15-
25kts as a cold front moves toward the area. Sunday, winds shift
northwesterly behind the cold front at 20-25kts. Gusts could reach
gale conditions (20-40% chance) by mid-morning in the southeastern
lake. Wave heights in the west remain at 4-6ft. In the east, wave
heights will be 6-8ft, potentially reaching up to 11ft in the
southeast. Winds reduce through Monday and shift to southerly in the
western arm.



Northern Green Bay and northwestern Lake Michigan: Winds have become
northwesterly around 10kts behind the cold front this afternoon and
are expected to remain so through Saturday night. Wave heights will
be 1-2ft, lower in the Bay. Saturday morning, winds decrease in
strength to around 5kts and shift southerly. Saturday afternoon
through early Sunday morning, southerly winds pick up to around 15
kts. Wave heights will be 2-4ft. Winds shift clockwise at 10-15kts
to northwesterly mid-Sunday. Winds diminish Monday into Tuesday
morning.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LH
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...LH