491
FXUS63 KMQT 182023
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
323 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather is expected through Wednesday with highs near
  normal in the 30s/40s and lows in the teens/20s.

- Next period of widespread precipitation is expected Thursday,
  mainly in the form of light rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

Afternoon GOES satellite imagery reveals mostly clear skies across
the UP save for some lingering lake effect cu across the east.
Tonight, mostly clear skies should enable another round of strong
radiational cooling. Similar to last night, temps across the
interior west should bottom out to the low teens should skies remain
clear while elsewhere cools to the upper teens and low 20s. While
dry weather remains tomorrow, clouds will be on the increase ahead
of a weak wave set to skirt through Ontario on Thursday. PoPs return
to Upper Michigan early Thursday as weak isentropic ascent / warm
air advection force light rain across the area. Previous forecast
had mentioned the potential for light freezing drizzle early
Thursday as mid level warm air advection ramps up, though soundings
haven`t trended any better for this forecast cycle, showing a 2-3kft
above freezing layer with sfc temps near or just above freezing and
various model suites depicting meager cloud layer moisture. Rainfall
pressing west to east across the UP early Thursday is expected to
remain on the lighter side, generally below a tenth of an inch by
the time precip wraps up (>70% chance across the northern tier of
the UP).

As the weak wave moves into Ontario late into Friday, cooler temps
aloft filter across Lake Superior, allowing the generation of lake
effect clouds and light lake effect flurries across the WNW wind
snowbelts, mainly the eastern UP. Model soundings show rather
unimpressive parameters for LES development with dry air within the
DGZ and below the cloud layer, as well as lake eq heights only 5-6k
ft. High pressure building into the region Friday afternoon into
Saturday.

A more zonal pattern aloft sets up through the end of the weekend
into the early week, supporting the passage of weak shortwaves and
low impact weather. Model guidance begins to disagree looking into
the midweek period, though increased troughing may provide targets
of opportunity for more impactful weather by then.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

VFR prevails during the 18Z TAF period as high pressure holds. Near
calm winds through tonight increase out of the southwest on
Wednesday to 5-8 kts by the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 323 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

Light winds and calm seas persist across Lake Superior tonight
through tomorrow morning as high pressure settles overhead. South to
southwest winds begin to pick up to 15-25 kts tomorrow evening as a
weak low pressure moves through northern Ontario. Winds veer W to NW
late into early Friday becoming 20-30 kts lake wide, especially the
central and eastern lake. WNW gusts to 30 kts continue through
Friday morning with waves in the eastern lake building 4-8 ft,
highest near the eastern UP shoreline. Building sfc high pressure
across the Upper Great Lakes will work to bring down winds below 25
kts by Friday evening, eventually becoming light into the overnight
hours. Periods of breezy winds 15-20 kts are expected late weekend
into the early portions of next week with very low probabilities of
Gales.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...77
MARINE...BW