262
FXUS63 KMQT 100848
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
348 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snowfall rates between 0.5-1"/hour and winds gusting up to 20-30
mph this morning will cause decreased visibilities and accumulating
snow on roadways, creating hazardous travel during the morning
commute.

- Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect through the daytime
hours today for additional accumulations of 1-4 inches with
difficult travel conditions possible during the morning commute.
Winter Storm Warnings for Marquette and Alger counties also hold
through Monday for an additional 3-6 inches of snow.

- While snowfall rates fall off significantly tonight into Tuesday,
active weather pattern continues through the work week with a slight
warmup expected to bring periodic rain and snow showers to the
forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

KMQT radar returns show lake effect snow ongoing across the Lake
Superior-adjacent counties of the UP. The strongest returns have
suggested 1"/hr rates over eastern Marquette County. The RAP
analysis shows the stacked 500mb closed low centered over Lake
Michigan with an inverted trough over eastern Lake Superior which is
supporting a weak surface trough over central Lake Superior. That
trough is helping provide convergence and lift to support the higher
snowfall rates. SPC Mesoanalysis still shows sfc-850mb deltaTs of 14-
20 C, though soundings show the inversion height falling from 10 kft
to 5 kft at the Marquette shoreline by this afternoon as well as
increasingly more dry low level RHs. Snowfall rates and coverage
will decline through today as a result. However, confidence is high
enough in potentially impactful snowfall rates as well as winds
gusting to 20-30 mph (especially along Lake Superior) that the
Monday morning commute may become tricky for some. With that in
mind, will maintain the current headlines, though radar/satellite
trends may need to be monitored today in case some headlines need to
be dropped off early.

Tonight, while some LES will linger for Alger County and east, only
a few tenths of an inch of snow are expected at most. Further west,
the HREF suite does show a weak impulse in the northwesterly 500mb
flow aloft, sufficient to bring a line of light snow showers across
the UP into Tuesday morning. Impacts are expected to be low with
these showers as probabilities of 1+"/6hr snow rates are 10% or
less. Cool temperatures prevail with lows expected to be in the
lower 20s.

Uncertainty then grows into the middle portions of the work week as
the upper level closed low gyrates throughout eastern Canada, with
individual embedded shortwaves influencing the precipitation
forecast. Because the lake is so warm and the current airmass is so
cool, the lake-850mb deltaTs remain 40-70% likely to support lake
enhanced to lake effect precipitation throughout the week even with
a warmer airmass moving overhead. However, with the aforementioned
warming, not all of the lake effect precipitation will fall as snow,
as temperatures will warm to above freezing for portions of the mid
to late week. One higher-impact element that has increasing
confidence is the Wednesday into Thursday wind forecast, as pressure
rises and a reinforced shot of cooler air will lead to gusts 50-80%
likely to exceed 30 mph UP-wide and Lake Superior locations 20-50%
likely to see wind gusts in the 40s mph range per the 12Z Euro
ensemble. The gradual warming trend continues into next weekend as
the ridging over the central CONUS is expected to encroach into the
region in some fashion. The CPC gives over 50 percent chances that
the interior west will see above normal temperatures in the 8-14 day
period, with the rest of the UP in the 40-50 percent range.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

The worst flight conditions are found across the western half of the
U.P. this evening, with the primary lake effect snow band still
focused over western Marquette County into Baraga County, and
another band bringing variable IFR/LIFR conditions to KIWD. Expect
snow showers to pick up intensity again across the central and
eastern U.P. overnight, with conditions trending back to MVFR/IFR 06-
10z. Expect heaviest snow roughly 10-15z Mon morning, with periods
of LIFR at KIWD and KSAW. Showers finally taper off late in the day
as conditions improve to VFR after 21z Mon through the end of the
period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 347 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

North to northwest winds will gust to 20-25 kt today, with a few
gusts in the Stannard Rock vicinity gusting to 30 kt (10-30%).
A brief lull below 20 kt is expected tonight before southwest
winds ahead of a trough draped from a low in the northern
Canadian Prairie ramps up wind gusts for the midweek period.
Wind gusts on Tuesday will be near 20 kt in the east and near 30
kt in the west. As winds veer to the west and northwest Tuesday
night to Wednesday, chances of gales climb to 30-60 percent. By
late Wednesday, waves over the west half will be 4-8 ft and
8-12 ft over the east (highest north of Grand Marais, MI). Winds
are expected to fall sub-gale by Thursday afternoon and sub 20
kt by overnight into Friday as ridging moves over the lake.
Waves fall below 4 ft Friday morning. Uncertainty then grows
going into the weekend forecast, though the European ensemble
model suite suggests 10-30 percent chances of gales Saturday.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     MIZ001-003-004-084.

  Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ this morning
     for MIZ002-009.

  Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ005-
     006.

  Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ007-
     013-085.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GS
AVIATION...CB
MARINE...GS