


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
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217 FXUS63 KMQT 062352 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 752 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool conditions for the first half of this week; a widespread freeze is possible for inland areas Tuesday night. Frost and/or freeze conditions will be possible again Wednesday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Early this afternoon the upper level ridge responsible for the recent warm weather was now over the east coast with troughing extending from the Hudson Bay southwest into the Northern Plains and central Rockies. Satellite imagery showed clouds continuing to stream northeast through the eastern U.P behind the cold front that passed through the area last night into this morning. Over the central and west breaks in the clouds had developed. There was enough instability for lake effect clouds off Lake Superior but dry air and low inversion heights kept the convection shallow and precip free. Temperatures this afternoon were much closer to seasonal averages, mainly in the 50s. For tonight, an upper level jet streak moves across the area providing lift for at least some elevated showers this evening over the central and eastern U.P. With dry air in the low levels it could be hard for the precipitation to make it to the surface over the central U.P but kept chance PoPs there with likely PoPs over the east. There is a chance for frost tonight over the interior with clearing skies late tonight. However, a pre-frontal trough moving through the area might be enough to keep winds from going calm and decoupling of the boundary layer. With considerable uncertainty maintained the NBM low temperatures for tonight. Through midweek the trough will slowly move east through the Great Lakes. Afternoon highs closer to seasonal averages are expected through Wednesday. With subsidence at the base of the trough plenty of clear skies and dry weather is expected. The combination of dry air, clear skies and light winds will make opportunities for frost and freeze conditions for the inland areas, especially in the central and west. Have issued a Freeze Watch for Tuesday night across much of the U.P with the exception of the Keweenaw and far east. NBM MinT probabilities for <32 are up to 100% over the inland areas of the central and west and around 50% in the east. Most locations near the Lake Superior shoreline should remain above freezing with light onshore flow. The trough axis shifting east of the area late in the week as a ridge of high pressure builds into the western U.S. This will result in temperatures warming into the 60s across the U.P late this week, several degrees above seasonal averages. Northwest flow aloft will be favorable for at least a few shortwaves to affect the area, bringing the chance for precipitation back into the forecast Thursday into Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 752 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025 VFR conditions expected for the duration of the TAF period. Will carry a tempo for rain showers at SAW this evening, but confidence is low. Light and variable winds will increase and become westerly tonight, increasing further tomorrow morning in the wake of cold front. Wind gusts up to 20 kts are expected at IWD/SAW and up to 35 kts at CMX after Tue 15Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 235 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025 West winds will strengthen to 25 kts tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will push through the area Tuesday morning with winds becoming northwest to 30 knots behind the front. A few gusts to gale are possible at the higher platforms. Winds become light on Tuesday night, below 20 kts as high pressure settles into the region. Low pressure tracking through Ontario will bring increasing southerly winds for Thursday into Friday, possibly up to 30 kts. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Freeze Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for MIZ002-004>006-009>014-084-085. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NL AVIATION...TDUD MARINE...NL