946
FXUS63 KMQT 051140
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
640 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Weak clipper system will provided light snow chances this weekend
with lake effect snow following for the NW wind snowbelts.

- Colder than normal temperatures continue through the forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Early morning RAP analysis and water vapor imagery indicate broad NW
flow aloft with an embedded shortwave dropping into the Great Lakes.
This is to be a recurring theme for much of the extended period.
Down towards the surface, low pressure is analyzed over Ontario,
with a diffuse frontal boundary extending SSW through Minnesota and
South Dakota. Out ahead of this, light snow has been able to develop
across much of the UP with widespread weak radar returns and plenty
of ASOS sites ticking off some snowflakes. The heaviest radar
returns are over the eastern UP (perhaps some enhancement due to the
proximity of the right-entrance region of the LLJ, or the long fetch
off of Lake Michigan?), so another 1-2in would not be out of the
question there the rest of the night. For its part, the HREF favors
snowfall rates of up to a half and even 1in/hr, with around a 30-40%
chance for snowfall rates in excess of 1in/hr at times into the pre-
dawn hours. This, in combination with gusty winds particularly near
the lakeshores, could lead to some blowing snow and a potential for
some hazardous travel ahead of the morning commute. Take it slow and
mind your stopping distance! Elsewhere, snowfall amounts the rest of
tonight stay below an inch. Temperatures thus far in the teens may
fall back further just below 10F.

Snowfall largely wraps up after sunrise, with just some lingering
lake bands possibly bisecting the Keweenaw as winds remain out of
the SSW ahead of another approaching clipper-like wave (currently
over the Dakotas). Temperatures climb into the lower/mid 20s under
cloudy skies. The next wave looks to track through northern
Wisconsin later this evening through the first half of the night,
providing another round of light "system" snow over the southern and
eastern UP, followed by a reinforced shot of cold air and light lake
effect snow to the northwest wind snowbelts through the rest of the
weekend. At this time, lake effect snow aims to be on the lighter
side, potentially providing the NW wind snowbelts with an additional
1-3in despite supportive delta-Ts pushing 25C given dry air within
the boundary layer. Will note a potential for higher totals in the 3-
6in range over the Keweenaw by in the weekend given the potential
for any heavier banding to extend into the area. Meanwhile,
temperatures come in much cooler, peaking only in the teens Saturday
and Sunday and falling into the single digits (or lower!) each
night.

Looking further into the midweek period, operational models and
their ensemble counterparts continue the NW flow aloft clipper train
across the area, supporting additional periods of accumulating
system and lake effect snow.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 640 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

MVFR conditions are observed at all sites this morning and are
expected to be the primary flight category for this TAF period. With
system snowfall pushing east and out of the region today, NW wind
lake effect snow showers will impact the TAF sites to varying
degrees. The heaviest impacts will most likely be felt at CMX, with
NW gusts in excess of 25 kt tonight driving visibility down, with
40% chances of IFR visibility late this evening into the overnight
hours. Like any LES setup, periods of VFR in between bands/cells of
SHSN are possible but have a high degree of uncertainty associated
with them and are unlikely to prevail for a full hour.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 257 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

SW gales to 35-40kts persist early this morning, tapering off around
12Z. Winds remain elevated the rest of the day, however, with gusts
to near 20-25kts. Saturday morning, post-frontal northwest winds
will ramp up to 30 kt, with chances of a brief 35 kt gale around 40
percent. The weather pattern into next week looks to continue with
periodic Clipper Lows that will bring either increased southwest
winds ahead of it and/or gusty northwest winds in its wake.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for LSZ243>251-
     264>267.

Lake Michigan...
  Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...BW/LC