221
FXUS63 KMQT 252054
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
354 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High impact winter weather is expected over the next several
  days. Chances of 12 inches or more of snow are around 100%
  percent across the north-northwest wind snow belts of the
  western UP by Thanksgiving, with some spots potentially
  receiving 2 to 3+ feet.

- Blizzard Warnings are in effect for lakeshore adjacent
  counties of the west and central U.P. where heavy snowfall
  rates combined with wind gusts greater than 40 mph will
  drastically reduce visibility.

- Gales up to 45 kts are expected (70-90%) on Lake Superior this
  evening through Thanksgiving, with Storm-Force gust to 50 kts
  possible (40 to 60% chance). Wave heights of 15-20 ft are
  expected.

- Minor lakeshore flooding and beach erosion is possible along
  the Lake Superior shoreline late tonight through Thanksgiving.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

Afternoon GOES satellite imagery reveals a slightly negatively
tilted shortwave trough digging through far eastern SD, allowing for
warm, moist midlevel flow to bring fog and light rain across Upper
Michigan. At the surface, a ~1006 mb low is developing along the
southern MN/central WI border. This low is set to further deepen as
low as 990mb while tracking northeast along the southern UP border
tonight through Wednesday, bringing widespread impactful winter
weather in the form of heavy snow and high winds.

As the low draws near tonight, increased forcing for ascent, strong
dynamical cooling, and cold air advection aloft will force a change
over from rain to snow across the western UP. The strong mid to low
level f-gen response will induce a rapid increase in snowfall rates
during the overnight hours through much of Wednesday morning, where
CAM guidance suggests a high probability (>75%) of 1 in/hr snowfall
rates. Aiding snowfall rates will be lake enhancement off of a
relatively warm Lake Superior (averaging ~6.5 degrees C) and local
orographic enhancement along the Keweenaw Spine, Michigamme
Highlands, and areas of the Porkies/Gogebic Range. These areas may
exceed snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour Wednesday, making travel
increasingly difficult as roadways will struggle to stay cleared
despite plowing efforts. Regardless if snowfall rates don`t end up
being as heavy as forecast, strong N to NW winds in excess of 40-50
mph (highest along Lake Superior) will create blizzard conditions
and blowing and drifting snow, especially as snow becomes fluffier
as SLRs increase through Wednesday morning and afternoon between 10-
15:1. This is reflected in the 12z HREF where joint probability for
snowfall rates >0.5", visibility <0.25 mi, and wind gusts >35 mi
increase 60-90%. For these reasons, have opted to upgrade the
ongoing Winter Storm Warnings for the western UP (except S Houghton
and Iron Counties) to Blizzard Warnings beginning at 00z tonight.

Through Wednesday, rain will continue to transition to snow across
the central and eventually eastern UP. Very strong N to NW winds
combined with strong synoptically forced snow and lake enhancement
from warm Superior water will combine to create blizzard conditions
for Marquette and Alger counties, especially near the lakeshore.
Have included these two counties in the Blizzard Warning beginning
tomorrow morning. Conditions across the central UP, however, will
vary greatly. With the surface low being nearly directly overhead
the south-central UP tomorrow morning, there will be a brief lull in
precip followed by a quick uptick in northerly winds and increasing
snow through the afternoon.

Snowfall totals for the *first* round of snow only through tomorrow
evening are quite impressive. Areas near Ironwood and the Porkies
should receive anywhere from 12-24" with locally higher amounts to
30", while the Keweenaw and Houghton/Baraga counties total between
10-20". This morning`s EFI of 1 and shift of tails of 2 owes high
confidence in heavy snowfall totals across the western UP. What`s
less certain is the adjacent lakeshore areas of Marquette county.
Given the strong N to NW winds and warm lake temp much above
freezing, the nearshore make struggle to accumulate much more than a
few inches while the higher terrain of to the west reaches 6-12". As
the surface low pulls to the north and east late in the day,
synoptically forced snow will transition to more of a N to NW lake
effect regime into Thursday. 850 mb temperatures cool between -10
and -14C, yielding delta-Ts near 16 to 20C and allowing lake effect
snowbands to climb as high as 8-10 kt feet. This transition to NW
lake effect snow will mark the *second* round of snow through
Thursday and linger into the weekend. Fluffier 15-20+:1 SLR lake
effect snow coupled with model 6hrly QPF between 0.1-0.25 yields
another round of 5-12" of snow through Thursday across the northern
tier of the UP. Additionally, with strong winds holding on through
the day, lake effect snow should penetrate far enough inland to
accumulate all the way down to the Lake Michigan shorelines.
Additionally, CAMs suggest a Lake Nipigon connecting dominant band
structure in the east-central UP that may provide locally higher
snowfall amounts in Alger County.

With lake effect snow beginning to taper down Friday, 2-day snowfall
totals may end up between 12-32 inches (highest west, less near the
lakeshores) across much of the area. This actually makes a run for
the greatest 2 day total in Ironwood (35" ended 01-06-1997).

Travel over the next 48 hours may be difficult to near impossible,
especially for the western UP. It is highly advised to reconsider
travel plans. If you must, it is imperative to winterize your
vehicle, bring extra winter gear, etc, in your vehicle.
Additionally, prepare any home winterization strategies now!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

As a low pressure deepens as it passes through the UP throughout
this TAF period, SHRA turns to SHSN from west to east, bringing with
it significant periods of LIFR to minimums at all sites, with some
periods of IFR possible.

SAW is already at airport minimums as the combination of gusty winds
out of the northeast moving upslope with rain-moistened air causing
low ceilings and FG. Some improvement to LIFR is possible (~50%)
this afternoon with some more dry surface air reaching the terminal,
but after sunset, airport minimum ceilings and occasional low vis
will return. As winds become more northerly and are not as directly
upslope tonight into Wednesday, some improvement in the ceiling is
expected, but a transition to SHSN in conjunction with gusts to 30+
kt will create a BLSN threat which will bring 20-40% chances of
blizzard conditions to the terminal.

IWD and CMX are more likely (60-80%) to see blizzard conditions
overnight into  as winds at CMX especially gust to over 40 kt and
both sites will see more direct upslope flow when winds become more
northerly to northwesterly as well as better SHSN rates.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 352 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

A strong early winter low pressure system is set to bring high winds
and waves to Lake Superior tonight through Thursday. N to NE winds
20-30 kts have already begun to ramp up this evening, and will
increase quickly to 35-45 kts tonight through tomorrow morning while
backing to the N and NW. Storm force gusts to 50 kts cannot be ruled
out around and east of the Keweenaw (40-60% chance). While winds
look to weaken over the western lake Wednesday night, the high-end
gales (with potentially a few storm force gusts) looks to continue
into Thanksgiving. As the troughing pattern weakens Thanksgiving
through late this week, expect the winds to lighten up with time,
with the gales finally ending late Thursday night. Throughout the
gale event, some light freezing spray will be possible across the
waters from late Wednesday through Thursday evening. In addition,
expect waves of 12 to 18 feet across the waters, with some areas
near the tip of the Keweenaw, near Stannard Rock, and from Marquette
to Grand Marais, MI potentially seeing wave heights or 20+ ft. Winds
continue to weaken through Friday, eventually becoming 20 kts or
less by Friday night. The light winds look to continue until Sunday
when a shortwave lifts back into the western Great Lakes region.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Blizzard Warning from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to 7 AM
     EST /6 AM CST/ Thursday for MIZ001>004-009.

  Lakeshore Flood Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 1 PM EST
     Thursday for MIZ001.

  Lakeshore Flood Advisory from 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ to 7 PM
     EST /6 PM CST/ Wednesday for MIZ002-009.

  Lakeshore Flood Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST
     Thursday for MIZ003.

  Blizzard Warning from 7 AM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday for
     MIZ005.

  Lakeshore Flood Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 1 PM EST
     Thursday for MIZ005.

  Blizzard Warning from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 PM EST Thursday for
     MIZ006.

  Lakeshore Flood Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 1 AM EST
     Friday for MIZ006.

  Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 PM EST Thursday
     for MIZ007-013-014-085.

  Lakeshore Flood Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 1 AM EST Friday
     for MIZ007.

  Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening to
     7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Thursday for MIZ010-084.

  Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Wednesday for
     MIZ011-012.

Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning from 4 PM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Friday for LSZ251-
     267.

  Gale Warning until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Thursday for LSZ162.

  Gale Warning from 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening to 7 AM
     EST /6 AM CST/ Thursday for LSZ240>242.

  Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Thursday for
     LSZ243-246.

  Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Thursday for
     LSZ244-245-264-265.

  Gale Warning from 1 AM Wednesday to 1 PM EST Thursday for
     LSZ247-248.

  Gale Warning from 10 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Friday for
     LSZ249.

  Gale Warning from 1 PM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Friday for LSZ250.

  Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Thursday for
     LSZ263.

  Gale Warning from 1 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Friday for LSZ266.

Lake Michigan...
  Gale Warning from 4 PM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Friday for LMZ221-
     248-250.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...BW