529
FXUS63 KMQT 301728
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
128 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms today and
  Friday (40-70%). Much lower chances on Saturday (15-25%), only
  over the east half of Upper Michigan. Severe weather is not
  expected over the next few days.

- High temperatures increase well into the 80s today, then fall
  back into the 70s to low 80s Friday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Early morning GOES WV imagery and RAP analysis place the UP on the
northeastern periphery of a strong mid level ridge over the central
CONUS. At the sfc weak high pressure around 1016 mb is centered
over northern IL. This is extending weak 1012-1015 mb ridging north-
northeast over the UP, Ontario, and into northern Quebec. As a
result of the southwest winds and height rises, temps warm up today
into the 80s to low 90s. With this WAA and moisture advection, humid
conditions and modest instability develops supportive of storms.
Timing is a bit blurry as convection has to move over a more stable
lake influenced airmass and forcing is somewhat nebulous, but CAMs
indicate the moisture convergence and weak dynamics will support
some showers and weak storm activity over the west. Likely start
time window is 12-15Z timeframe, but a few isolated showers may
sneak in ahead of that. These showers/storms continue to expand and
press eastward before dissipating toward the later afternoon hours
as a disturbance over ND and Manitoba approaches. With lackluster
forcing and unimpressive shear, severe weather is not expected.
However, heavy downpours yielding isolated rainfall amounts up to
0.5" to 0.75" is possible (30-60% chance); mean rainfall totals of
0.25" or lower are anticipated, highest west half. Otherwise patchy
wildfire smoke from the northwestern CONUS may yield hazy skies
today into the weekend.

A mid level trough over the Dakotas at the end of today moves over
WI Friday into Saturday, interacting with a descending cold front
from the northwest. This yields better widespread chances (40-70%)
for showers and storms on Friday. Shear will continue to be lacking,
keeping the strong to severe threat at bay. This round supports
better QPF fields with NBM depicting more widespread coverage of
amounts in the 0.25" to 0.5". Temps fall back into the 70s to low
80s on Friday.

A few showers and thunderstorms could linger into early Saturday in
the wake of these systems, mainly east half. Do not expect any
strong to severe storms for any of these periods as shear remains
weak for the next few days. Sunday into Monday favors drier weather
a high pressure builds back into the region, with temperatures
looking to climb back into the 80s for much of next week. Another
approaching trough will bring increasing precipitation chances again
towards the middle of next week, but details are sparse at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 128 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Mainly VFR conditions. However, isolated showers and thunderstorms
are currently popping up on latest radar mosaic and could impact CMX
and SAW through this evening. In any convection, there could be
brief deterioration to MVFR conditions. Highlighted with tempos in
the near term and PROB30s this evening into tonight. Meanwhile,
westerly winds will continue to gust up to 25 kts at IWD and CMX
into this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 332 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Expect winds to remain below 20 kts for much of the next week amidst
benign weather. Weak troughing moving back into the region today,
bringing a few thunderstorms over Lake Superior and northern Lake
Michigan through Saturday. Storms are not expected to be severe.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CB/77
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...CB/77