201
FXUS63 KMQT 051913
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
213 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lake effect rain continues into tonight, turning to snow above
roughly 1000` elevation in the central and west. A dusting up to an
inch is forecast, up to 2 inches in the Michigamme Highlands. Travel
impacts are not expected due to warm ground temperatures.

- A Gale Warning continues for northerly gales of 35 to 45 knots
across most of Lake Superior, diminishing from west to east tonight.

- Temperatures will warm through the weekend, well above normal by
Sunday and Monday with highs mainly in the 50s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

Mid-afternoon water vapor imagery shows a midlevel trough over the
upper Great Lakes, with upstream ridging over the Rockies, northern
Plains, and Canadian Prairies. Deep moisture is exiting eastward,
with drier air having made it into the western UP. A surface low
analyzed at 1002 mb near the Soo and high pressure building in from
the west is resulting in a strong pressure gradient, with 25-35 kt
wind gusts common over inland areas, up to around 40 kt near the
lakeshores. These winds should continue this afternoon before
gradually decreasing this evening. Meanwhile, 850 mb temps are
plummeting via strong northerly winds and should bottom out around -
7C tonight. Blustery winds  This will set up delta-Ts in the -15 to
-18 range, leading to a transition to lake effect rain (already
occurring as of 2 pm). As temperatures gradually cool, expect rain
showers to mix with and change to snow showers mainly above 1000`
elevation in the west and central UP this evening into tonight.
Forecast soundings show high RH in the boundary layer that extends
up to roughly 1.5 km AGL...however, temperatures are quite marginal
with the top of that boundary layer only at around -10C and surface
temps only bottoming out around 30F in the coldest spots. Those air
temps, along with warm ground temps, should greatly limit
accumulation potential despite prolonged shower activity overnight.
Wind fetch and moisture profiles favor the Michigamme Highlands for
accumulating snow, with amounts of 2-3" not out of the question per
the REFS probability matched mean. Otherwise, any accumulations
should be a dusting to around an inch, with travel impacts not
expected.

Low-level moisture and rain/snow showers linger Friday in the
central and east before building high pressure dries things out from
west to east. The first colder than normal night in some time is on
tap Friday night with lows in the mid-teens to mid-20s. However, the
near to below normal temperatures will be short lived, as a strong
Pacific jet allows for the return of mild air flooding the CONUS and
southern Canada. High temps are expected to rebound to slightly
above normal values Saturday with mid-40s to near 50, and well above
normal Sunday into Monday with highs well into the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 103 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

Blustery conditions ongoing across Upper Michigan this afternoon
with strong north winds and steady rain showers occasionally mixing
with snow on the back side of a low pressure system departing east
of Lake Superior. Prevailing conditions have improved to MVFR at
KIWD and KCMX as the low shifts to the east, but intermittent bouts
of IFR will remain possible into this evening as heavier showers
pass through the terminals. Conditions are more likely to remain IFR
through the period at KSAW. Shower activity gradually winds down
from west to east overnight, potentially lingering at KSAW until
after 12z Fri. Snow will continue to mix in with rain at times, but
with minimal impact and no accumulation expected. North winds
gusting to 20-25 kt at KIWD and 30-35 kt at KCMX and KSAW will
diminish from west to east overnight as high pressure builds into
the region for Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 213 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

Lake Superior: Northerly gales of 35 to 45 knots continue into this
evening before gradually tapering off from west to east tonight.
Significant wave heights max out around 11 to 16 feet this evening.
Winds and waves continue diminishing through Friday as high pressure
builds in. Southwesterly winds increase to 20-30 kt over the western
half Saturday night, turning westerly at 30-40 kt over the east half
on Sunday. A Gale Watch may be needed.

Northern Lake Michigan and northern Bay of Green Bay: Northerly
winds of 30-35 kt continue through this evening where a Gale Warning
remains in effect. These winds remain elevated at 25-30 kt late
tonight into Friday before diminishing as high pressure builds in.
Winds should remain around or below 20 kt Friday night through the
weekend.


&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for LSZ243-244-264.

  Gale Warning until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for LSZ241-
     242-263.

  Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for LSZ245>250-265-266.

  Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for LSZ251-267.

Lake Michigan...
  Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thompson
AVIATION...CB
MARINE...Thompson