364
FXUS63 KMQT 021129
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
729 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drier and warmer weather persists this weekend into early next
week.

- Smoke from Canadian wildfires will continue impacting air quality
and may locally reduce visibility at times. An Air Quality Alert
remains in effect for all of Upper Michigan through Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 331 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Upper ridging over the Great Plains and Canadian Prairies is
supporting surface high pressure over the Great Lakes through the
weekend. This will ensure quiet weather today through Sunday. Light
N to NW flow aloft the rest of today continues to usher in wildfire
smoke from fires ongoing in portions of central Canada. Air Quality
Alerts for elevated levels of PM2.5, courtesy of the Michigan Dept.
of Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy, remain in effect through
this evening. Sunday, the surface high begins to slide eastward
while a weak midlevel shortwave moves into the Plains. Flow begins
to back more to west aloft and southwest at the surface, cutting us
off somewhat from the Canadian wildfires. However, guidance
continues to hold onto near-surface and elevated smoke; perhaps we
will still have somewhat of a connection to the wildfires, with
smoke mixing down to the surface, and perhaps smoke that passed
south of us will be able to lift northward again Sunday. So, would
not be surprised if air quality headlines are extended.

Otherwise, expect temperatures this weekend to come in warmer than
during the past several days. Temperatures today and Sunday peak in
the upper 70s to lower 80s for most, and in the mid/upper 70s along
the Superior shoreline. Lows tonight will be generally in the 50s,
but may fall into the upper 40s in the interior-western UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 331 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Moving into the work week, ensembles diverge significantly about how
the pattern breaks down and how embedded shortwaves track through
the region. This makes the precipitation forecast challenging,
though with less certainty in stifling high pressure, a diurnal
precipitation pattern emerges in the interior west in the NBM as
even in weakly forced atmospheres, the chances of the summertime
airmass over the interior western UP acquiring 1000+ J/kg of SBCAPE
climbs above 50 percent by the mid to late week period per the NBM.
Part of this increasing trend in instability is due to the
increasing trend in surface moisture as connection to Gulf or Corn
Belt moisture becomes more likely. The LREF shows chances of surface
dew points exceeding 65 degrees climbing over 50 percent by
Thursday. Should the models start to coalesce around any particular
shortwave trough, severe weather potential will be in play, but no
particular day`s setup stands out at this time. While high
temperatures are still expected to hover around the 80 degree mark
throughout the week, the increased moisture will make for a slight
warming trend in low temperatures well into the 60s by the end of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 728 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Skies remain hazy through the forecast period as wildfire smoke
continues to drift through. This is also expected to lead to MVFR
visibility at times at all terminals. Otherwise light and variable
winds at SAW/IWD increase to near 10 kts today out of the W to SW; a
lake breeze will quickly shift winds to the NE at SAW this
afternoon. W winds at CMX persist with gusts around 20 kts expected
this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 331 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Under primarily high pressure, winds will remain below 20 kt for
most of this forecast period. The exception will be across western
Lake Superior this afternoon and evening, where funneling southwest
winds between the Keweenaw and Thunder Bay will cause some localized
wind gusts 20 to 25 knots. Otherwise, expect wildfire smoke to cause
poor air quality at least through Saturday. There will be some
chances of thunder next week, though model guidance is widely spread
in the timing and location details at this time.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...BW/GS
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...BW