576
FXUS63 KMQT 161737
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
137 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hazardous swim conditions are expected into this evening for the
beaches along Lake Superior east of Marquette due to high wave
action and strong rip currents.

- Showers and thunderstorms will be possible (up to 50%) Monday night
into Tuesday.

- Temperatures will be close to seasonal averages most days through
next week, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

A cold front pushed through the UP today bringing a fast moving band
of showers to parts of the central and eastern UP. Behind the front
low level moisture, enhanced by Lake Superior, was bringing light
showers and drizzle to the upslope areas of the western UP. Surface
observations showed temperatures were cooler today through it was
humid, with temperatures 60s and 70s with dewpoints not too far
behind the temperature; it warmest in the east. Breezy northwest
winds had developed behind the front, especially closer to Lake
Superior. The combination of winds and waves will continue to bring
hazardous swim conditions this afternoon and evening for the beaches
along Lake Superior east of Marquette (a Beach Hazard Statement
remains in effect into the evening hours). Precipitation amounts
from overnight into the day were mainly light, less than a tenth of
an inch through parts of the Keweenaw received upward of a third of
an inch. GOES satellite data showed some eroding of the clouds over
western Lake Superior but overall clouds remained widespread across
the U.P.

Northwest flow aloft is expected for tonight through much of the
week with a seasonable airmass providing highs in the mid to upper
70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. Another cold front will move
through the U.P. Monday night into Tuesday bringing the chance for
showers (up to 50%) and a slight chance (20%) for thunderstorms.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop along a cold front upstream
during the daytime hours Monday but will weaken significantly as
they move into the UP Monday night as the airmass will be fairly
stable and little in the way of large scale forcing is available to
maintain the showers/storms. There is still variance with the
ensembles and deterministic guidance regarding the timing of the
cold front. LREF joint probabilities for MUCAPE>=500 J/kg and bulk
shear >= 30kt are around 60% for counties bordering Lake Michigan
/ Bay of Green Bay and around 30% for the central and eastern
counties along Lake Superior. The EPS is largely are contributing
the higher probabilities as it has the slower solutions but some
deterministic guidance are also falling into the slower timing. The
NAMNest and RRFS showing updraft helicity tracks in the
aforementioned area of high joint probabilities. Thus a few strong
storms can not be ruled out at this time through the probability for
severe thunderstorms remains low (less than 5%).

Behind the front dewpoints fall further into the upper 40s to low
50s for much of the UP Tuesday night through the end of the week.
With the drier airmass, light winds and clear skies low temperatures
on Tuesday and Wednesday night could dip into the upper 30s over the
interior west.

The next chance of showers will be late in the week as northwest
flow brings another front through the area. Widespread, impactful
precipitation is not expected at this time thus not expecting
appreciable improvements to the drought conditions over the far
south and west.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 114 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Low cloud cover continues to lead to MVFR restrictions at all
terminals to start off the forecast period, but a return to VFR is
expected by 19Z at IWD, 20Z at CMX, and 22Z at SAW. Brisk NW winds
are expected during the daytime hours today, with sustained winds in
excess of 10 kt at all sites (with gusts to 20+ kt expected at CMX)
before becoming 5 kt or less after sunset tonight. Some patchy MVFR
fog is possible mainly at SAW early Monday morning, otherwise VFR
prevails the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 136 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Lake Superior - Overall expect benign weather conditions this week
with only a few periods with winds near or slightly above 25kt. 20-
30kt winds this afternoon along and east of the Keweenaw will
diminish through the evening. Another period of Northwest winds to
25kt near/east of the Keweenaw is expected of Tuesday, otherwise
winds will generally be less than 20kt. Precipitation is possible
Monday night and Friday but the chance for thunder is low (less the
20%) and a drier airmass should keep the lake fog free.

Northern Bay of Green Bay and northern Lake Michigan - Overall
expect winds less than 20kt for much of the upcoming week. A cold
front moving across the lake the afternoon will bring northwest
winds behind it to 25kt through early evening but will diminish this
evening. Thereafter winds will be predominately southerly with the
exception of northerly winds on Tuesday behind a passing cold front.
Showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday night into Tuesday
(50% chance). A few storms could be strong on Tuesday but the chance
for severe thunderstorms is low (less than 5%). Showers are possible
again on Friday.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     MIZ005-006.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NL
AVIATION...GS/LC
MARINE...NL