936
FXUS63 KMQT 081123
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
723 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A low pressure system tracking north of the area through midweek
brings widespread wetting rain to the UP early this morning through
the afternoon.

- Southerly winds turn gusty today, with frequent gusts of 15-25 mph
expected. There is a 60-70% chance for gusts of 35+ mph near Lake
Superior through this evening.

- Winds shift westerly tonight into Wednesday, with frequent gusts
of 20 to 30 mph expected. There is a 30-60% chance for gusts up to
40 mph near Lake Superior and 70-90% chance for gusts up to 45 mph
in the Keweenaw on Wednesday.

- A Gale Warning for southerly winds up to 35 knots is in effect for
portions of east-central Lake Superior this afternoon and evening. A
Gale Watch is in effect for westerly winds of 40-45 knots across the
entire lake on Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Early morning water vapor analysis shows quite nicely low pressure
spinning over the Canadian Prairie, with persistent SSW flow into
the Great Lakes out ahead of it advecting a moisture-rich airmass
into the area. Polar satellite imagery indicates PWATs already near
an inch over the UP, and higher values up to 1.75in over IA and MN.
Meanwhile, spotty showers are already reaching the western UP so
far, but a more widespread batch of showers (with embedded thunder)
is moving northward into east-central MN on the nose of a stronger
~45kt LLJ core. This next batch looks to begin to spread into the
western UP during the pre-dawn hours, continuing eastward through
the morning and afternoon. Will note that CAMS continue to show
shower activity becoming more spotty with eastward extent, then
showers finally taper off in the eastern UP late tonight into early
Wednesday morning as the cold front passes through.

Most of the area looks to receive at a wetting rainfall. The latest
forecast reflects a widespread 0.10-0.25in over the eastern half of
the UP, and 0.50-0.75in over the western half through this evening.
However, NBM still shows a 50-60% chance for higher embedded totals
in excess of an inch over the far western UP given the potential for
thunderstorms and heavier downpours this morning. A good wind gust
doesn`t seem out of the question in any storms with such strong flow
aloft, and will note that plenty of sites out in eastern MN are
showing gusts to around 30mph in storms. However, we remain under a
steep capping inversion given the WAA aloft, so confidence in the
development of particularly strong to severe storms is low.

Gusty non-thunderstorm winds also remain a concern for today and
Wednesday. The strongest gusts in this southerly warm advection
regime will be in the areas favored by southerly downslope flow,
particularly from the Huron Mountains eastward along the Lake
Superior shoreline. These areas show a 60-70% chance for wind gusts
of 35+ mph through this evening per latest HREF and NBM guidance.
Winds shift westerly and strengthen further on Wednesday, aided by
cold air advection and pressure rises behind the cold front. Expect
widespread gusts of 20-30 mph through the day, with NBM
probabilities now increasing to 30-60% for gusts to 40 mph near Lake
Superior. A Wind Advisory for the Keweenaw continues to look like a
strong consideration as the NBM probability for gusts of 45+ mph has
increased to 70-90%. Meanwhile, will also have to watch areas to the
east as there is a 25-40% probability for 45 mph gusts along the
shoreline from east of Marquette to Whitefish Point.

Expect calmer weather to return to the region by Thursday as high
pressure temporarily builds back over the UP behind the departing
system, with highs on Thursday closer to seasonal norms in the mid
60s to low 70s. However, the overall pattern remains unsettled as
another trough has the potential to bring additional rounds of
precipitation and breezy conditions into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 723 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

A batch of rain showers, with some embedded thunder, is spreading
into the western UP this morning. The best chances for thunder will
be at IWD, though some -tsra will be possible at CMX over the next
couple of hours. Rain showers work into SAW over the next hour or
two. There is a potential for a brief drop down to MVFR, otherwise
VFR is expected for most of the day. Then, as skies clear out
tonight, some fog and low stratus may develop mainly at IWD and SAW.
However, gusty southerly winds, shifting over to the west late in
the period, may help to limit fog development. Expect wind gusts to
increase to around 20-30kts by mid morning, briefly falling back
below 20kts at IWD and SAW later tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Lake Superior: Southerly winds starting off around 15-20 kt early
this morning will increase to 20-30 kt across much of the lake later
this morning with a tightening pressure gradient as low pressure
moves towards Ontario. There is around a 50-60% chance for gales
across east-central portions of Lake Superior this afternoon. A Gale
Warning remains in effect for the waters between Marquette and Grand
Marais as the bulk of guidance still suggests the possibility of
frequent gusts to around 35 kt through this evening. Small craft
headlines are in place for the remaining nearshore zones as wave
heights build to 2-5 ft over the western half of the lake and 4-7 ft
over the eastern half, with 20-30 kt southerly winds shifting
southwesterly through tonight. Winds shift westerly behind a
trailing cold front early Wednesday, bringing the likelihood of high
end gales aided by cold air advection and strong pressure rises. A
Gale Watch remains in effect for the entire lake on Wednesday, with
40-45 kt winds expected in the west through Wednesday evening and in
the east through early Thursday morning. Wave heights continue to
build to 6-10 ft in the west and 8-13 ft in the east on Wednesday.
Winds briefly settle back below 20 kt under high pressure on
Thursday, but another system traveling north of the lake brings
additional strong wind potential Friday into the weekend. Confidence
in specific details for late in the week is low at this time.

Northern Green Bay and northwestern Lake Michigan: Winds become
elevated today with low pressure passing through Ontario. Southerly
winds increase to 20-30 kt and wave heights to 2-4 ft later this
morning, with Small Craft Advisories remaining in place through
early Wednesday morning. Another round of small craft headlines is
likely later Wednesday as winds turn westerly and continue to gust
to 20-30 kt behind a trailing cold front. The return of high
pressure brings calmer conditions for Thursday, with additional
rounds of stronger winds possible Friday into the weekend.
Confidence in specific details for late in the week is low at this
time.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement from noon EDT today through this
     evening for MIZ014.

Lake Superior...
  Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon
     for LSZ162.

  Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening
     for LSZ240>244-263-264.

  Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night
     for LSZ245>248-265.

  Gale Warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     LSZ249-250-266.

  Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday
     night for LSZ249>251-266-267.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CB/LC
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...CB/LC