281
FXUS63 KMQT 282318
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
718 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy winds over Lake Superior will create dangerous swimming
  conditions along the beaches of Marquette and Alger counties
  through this evening.

- Areas of frost are expected over the western interior U.P.
  tonight. Patchy frost is possible elsewhere throughout the
  interior of the U.P.

- A Frost Advisory is in effect for Iron, Baraga, southern
  Houghton, Ontonagon, and Gogebic counties for late tonight to
  Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Afternoon RAP analysis has a ridge building over the Great Lakes,
extending from surface high pressure centered over Northern Ontario.
In response, skies have turned sunny across most of the UP, but with
cooler northerly flow off of Superior, lake clouds continue to  move
onshore across the north-central and eastern U.P. With that onshore
flow, we have quite a range in temperatures this afternoon; areas
nearer the Superior shoreline and across the eastern UP are
struggling to get out of the 50s, while most of the western UP away
from Superior is seeing temperatures rising into the lower and even
mid 60s. Winds remain breezy so far, continuing to gust to around
20mph across the eastern UP and eastern Lake Superior. This
continues to lead to a risk for dangerous waves and rip currents for
the beaches of Marquette and Alger counties through this evening (as
well as most of the other beaches along the Lake Superior
shoreline). Because of this, a Beach Hazard Statement is in effect
for the dangerous swimming conditions for Marquette and Alger
counties through this evening; swimmers should avoid the water for
their own safety as rip currents and high period waves could quickly
tire out even experienced swimmers.

With clear skies and calm winds expected tonight across the area,
expect temperatures to tank, with some spots in the interior west
potentially getting down to 30 degrees or even lower late. While we
may see some patchy fog develop over these spots as temperatures
lower to the dewpoint, expect areas of frost to develop, with the
highest confidence in this occurring over the inland areas of Iron,
Baraga, and southern Houghton counties, and to a slightly lesser
extent Ontonagon and Gogebic counties. Some patchy frost is possible
elsewhere across the interior of the Upper Peninsula, but confidence
is lower as temperatures may stay high enough to limit coverage. A
Frost Advisory remains in effect for portions of the western UP.

Friday, temperatures climb a couple degrees higher than today with
most of the area warming into the lower to mid 60s. Temperatures
closer to 70F are possible in the interior-western UP. Expect
otherwise quiet weather with high pressure in place.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

A warming trend kicks off into the weekend with temperatures turning
more seasonal. Meanwhile, dry weather persists with ridging over the
Great Lakes at least into early next week. Chances for rain finally
return sometime in the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe as a trough drops
out of Manitoba/Ontario with an associated cold front, though
guidance is in some disagreement on timing. A midlevel low closes
off and deepens over the Great Lakes by early Thursday. Anomalous
troughing lingers somewhere over the Great Lakes through late next
week, keeping PoPs going through the end of the forecast period
while temperatures turn cooler than average again behind the midweek
cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 717 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Lake enhanced MVFR cloud cover continues the plague the central UP
and SAW this evening, with both IWD and CMX sitting at SKC.
Satellite trends show the back edge of the cloud deck now clearing
the tip of the Keweenaw, so still expecting these conditions at SAW
until tonight. Once clouds clear and winds lighten, patchy dense fog
is once again possible at all sites, though moreso at IWD and
SAW. Confidence remains low, so will re-evalute this potential
come the 06z update. Any fog that forms across the interior will
be short lived and burn off with sunrise.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Northeast winds continue to gust to near 20kts in far western and
far eastern portions of the lake into the mid-afternoon, then winds
fall back below 20kts by the early evening. With high pressure over
the Great Lakes through the weekend and at least into early next
week, expect winds to remain light before deepening low pressure
heads towards the area by the middle of next week.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Frost Advisory from 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     Friday for MIZ002-004-009-010-084.

  Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     MIZ005-006.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...LC
AVIATION...CB
MARINE...LC