722
FXUS63 KMQT 211847
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
147 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered light lake effect rain/snow showers are expected
  into this evening across the eastern U.P.

- Benign, low impact weather this weekend into the early part of next
  week.

- Lake effect snow and wind may impact the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.
  Travelers and interested parties should continue to monitor
  the forecast as details become more clear over the coming
  week.

- There is a 50% chance for Gale Force and 25% chance for Storm Force
  winds/light freezing spray on Lake Superior during the middle
  of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

Upper level low positioned along the shores of James Bay has been
noted on GOES Water Vapor Imagery and RAP analysis with surface
ridging extending north from Iowa into Manitoba. This positions
Upper Michigan in northwest flow aloft and under the influence of a
weak surface trough which is stretching southwestward across Lake
Superior. The effect has been increased cloudiness downstream of the
lake and the occasional shower near the lakeshore east of Munising.
Cooler northwest flow has kept most of the region in the 30s. Breezy
winds have also been noted in the Keweenaw and along Lake
Superior`s lakeshores.

For the remainder of today into this evening, shower activity will
diminish as the upstream ridge presses into the Great Lakes.
Temperatures may climb some in the next hour or two, but overall are
close to peak for today. Overnight lows look to bottom out mostly in
the 20s, but clearing skies may allow for parts of the interior west
and south central to dip into the teens. A weak wave dives southeast
into the area Saturday alongside a surface warm front. Increasing
moisture and isentropic ascent will provide for light rain and snow
to spread southeastward over the Keweenaw into eastern Upper
Michigan by afternoon. The swath of precip will shift east into
Ontario during the evening hours with potential for scattered
showers persisting in the east into early Sunday morning. Snow
accumulations and impacts are not expected. Daytime temperatures
Saturday look to land in the upper 30s to low 40s across the
forecast area. Afterwards, dry conditions prevail Sunday and Monday
with a warmer airmass building over the region. This should allow
daytime temperatures to climb into the 40s both days.

Current analysis over CONUS positions an upper level low along the
southern California coast. As this weekend progresses, this feature
will press through the 4 Corners, ejecting into the Southern or
Central Plains by Sunday night. Ridging stretches atop this feature
into middle Canada ahead of a another wave digging into the Northern
Rockies. Guidance is a little mixed on how or if these waves will
interact over the Northern Plains, which impacts the duration and
magnitude of the follow on lake effect event. The general idea
presented in all guidance packages though suggests that synoptic
rain will spread into the region Monday night and Tuesday and then
transition over to lake effect snow showers in the Tuesday night to
Wednesday timeframe. Main questions we`re still grappling with are
the position and timing of the synoptic surface low, how fast
temperatures will cool Tuesday night and Wednesday, and how long the
lake effect event will persist. These will all impact snow
accumulations. Additionally, the position of the surface low will
impact wind speeds and blowing snow potential. At the very least,
latest deterministic EC, GFS, and Canadian all maintain snow showers
in the northwest wind snowbelts Thanksgiving and into Friday.
Through this period, the EC and Canadian ensembles currently suggest
a 50-80% chance of at least 6 inches for portions of these snowbelts
while keeping the south-central snow free. More clarity in this
should evolve with time. For now, the recommendation for those with
Thanksgiving travel plans in the Great Lakes is to continue
monitoring forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

Clouds MVFR skies remain overhead Upper Michigan through this
evening but will gradually scatter out after this evening,
yielding VFR for the remainder of the TAF period. Breezy west-
northwest winds along the Keweenaw will bring 20-25 kt gusts to
KCMX through this afternoon. Winds fall below 15 kts tonight as
high pressure settles overhead.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 147 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

Northwest winds of 20-30 kts have been observed today across Lake
Superior, with the higher values focusing in the waters surrounding
and east of the Keweenaw Peninsula. These elevated winds should
lighten this evening as cold air advection ends and a surface high
begins having a more notable impact on the lake. Near or just after
midnight, sub-20kt winds lake-wide are expected. Anticipating these
lower winds to only linger into the afternoon, when pressure falls
and southerlies increase with the passage of an afternoon/evening
surface trough. By early Sunday morning, another shot of colder air
aloft across the east will push winds to near 30kts. A weak
isallobaric component may allow for northwest low end gale, but the
latest NBM pings this probability around 20% at the moment. Through
the morning, winds are expected to lighten and then again fall below
20kts by Sunday evening. Winds look to remain mostly below 20kts
through at least Tuesday.

Next week, a system is expected to move through the Great Lakes.
There`s still a number of questions about how this event will
evolve, including whether or not the surface low will deepen over
the region and how quickly it will move through the region. What is
certain though, is that the airmass moving in behind the system will
be notably colder, which increases the likelihood of gales in the
Tuesday night through Thursday night window. At this point, Storm
Force Winds and pockets of light freezing spray cannot be ruled out.
Given the clustering differences among the EC, Canadian, and GFS
ensemble membership, there`s varying degrees of potential outcomes
at this point. Given this, the latest Gale probabilities near 50%
and Storms near 25% make sense. As we move into next week, some of
this should improve and a clarity on anticipated conditions should
materialize.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JTP
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...JTP