382
FXUS63 KMQT 021150
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
750 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures cool to near seasonal normal values (mid 50s
  to mid 60s) today through the weekend.

- Breezy conditions are expected over the Keweenaw and east
  today. Expect northwest gusts up to around 30 mph near Lake
  Superior.

- A widespread freeze is expected across the area tonight into
  Saturday morning. Most areas inland from the Great Lakes will
  be below freezing (the exception Keweenaw County). The
  interior west could reach into the lower 20s. A Freeze Warning
  has been issued for most of the Upper Peninsula.

- A Clipper low passing through the region this weekend brings
  additional light rain chances late Saturday into early Sunday.
  Winds behind the cold front will be gusty, with a 20-60%
  chance of reaching gale conditions over mainly eastern Lake
  Superior.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

As CAA dwindles early this morning over the Upper Great Lakes,
expect to see some lake effect cloud cover develop over portions of
the northwest wind belts, particularly over the eastern U.P. where
there is a longer fetch upstream over Lake Superior. While delta-Ts
look to be in the lower teens, it should be enough to kick-start
some light rain/drizzle lake effect showers over the eastern U.P.
this morning into potentially early this afternoon, especially since
gusty northwest winds could kick up to around 30 mph along the
lakeshore from the Keweenaw to Whitefish Point. However, with
shortwave high pressure ridging already beginning to move into the
area today, expect the lake effect rain/drizzle showers and the
breezy conditions to weaken with time, with the showers ending by
the late afternoon hours over the east. While we may see some
remnant lake effect cloud cover hanging on over the eastern U.P.
early this evening, expect mostly clear skies by tonight as the
center of the sfc ridging moves overhead. With the skies being clear
and the antecedent air being quite cool, expect temperatures in the
areas away from the Great Lakes to drop below freezing, with the
typical cold spots in the interior west potentially dropping down to
as low as the lower 20s late tonight/early Saturday morning.
Therefore, a Freeze Warning has been issued for western and central
Upper MI from 10 PM EDT tonight to 10 AM EDT Saturday. In addition,
given that the ridging will create nearly calm winds at the sfc,
widespread frost is expected across the U.P. save the areas north of
Houghton.

Outside of the light lake effect rain showers and Freeze Warning
headlines for tonight, overall expect cooler and more seasonable
temperatures this weekend into early next week as a Clipper low
approaches and eventually passes the area. This means that high
temperatures are projected to range from the mid-50s to mid-60s
across the U.P. today through next Monday, while lows drop into the
20s and 30s in the interior areas tonight through Monday night (save
for Saturday night when clouds and rainfall from the Clipper moving
through limit lows to the 40s).

Speaking of the Clipper, while cloud cover from it looks to move
into the west as early as early Saturday morning, dry air in the
lower levels looks to prevent anything from reach the ground until
late in the day. However, as the center of the Clipper `clips` (*buh
dum tiss*) northern Lake Superior Saturday night, CAMs and medium
range guidance suggest some light rainfall passing over us during
the overnight hours. While nearly all guidance suggests the highest
rainfall amounts north of the U.P. Saturday night into Sunday
morning, the latest REFS run has a general 50 to 100% chance of at
least a tenth of an inch of rain falling over the area Saturday
night, with the exception being a less than 50% chance south of US-2
in Menominee County. While some lake effect sprinkles could be seen
behind the Clipper during the day Sunday over the northwest wind
belts, incoming ridging will put an end to it by the end of the day.
In addition to the rain chances, height falls up to 4 mb/3 hrs and
height rises up to 3 mb/3 hrs ahead of and behind the Clipper,
respectively, indicate breezy southerly winds preceding the
Clipper`s arrival on Saturday followed by gusty northwest winds
behind it on Sunday; some northwesterly wind gusts up to 40 mph will
be possible over the Keweenaw and along the Lake Superior shoreline
from Marquette County eastward. While the latest NBM shows a 50 to
70% chance for northwest wind gusts over 40 mph for these areas on
Sunday, I believe the NBM is running too hot on the wind gusts and
the actual chances will be somewhere between 20 and 60% like what is
shown in the latest LREF run.

Moving into next week, expect shortwave ridging to keep the area dry
on Monday while another Clipper brings troughing back to the area
next Tuesday. However, expect the Clipper`s passing to be dry, which
could increase fire weather concerns ahead of and behind the
Clipper`s passage next week. Moving towards the end of next week,
medium range guidance slightly differs on the strength of the jet
stream progging along the U.S./Canada border. Should the jet stream
be stronger, we could see some light rain chances return as well as
more `normal Fall-like` temperatures continuing; if not, then we
could see a warm-up again to high temperatures returning to the 60s
across most of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 749 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Lake effect clouds are present this morning as cold NW flow streams
across Lake Superior. Given plenty of dry air through the
atmospheric column, expecting VFR cigs to be the dominant flight
category, though cannot rule out some interminent MVFR AT IWD/CMX
this morning. Breezy northwesterlies will be the primary aviation
hazard today, gusting 15-25 kts, highest at CMX/SAW, through the
afternoon before falling this evening below 15 kts at all sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 211 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Lake Superior: Expect to see one more increase in northwest winds up
to 20 to 30 kts over mainly the southeastern lake this morning to
early this afternoon before incoming sfc ridging drops winds back
down to 20 kts or less again by this evening. However, as a Clipper
low approaches Lake Superior on Saturday, expect the winds to build
from the south, potentially gusting to 20 to 30 kts over the lake
Saturday evening as the low skirts along the northern shoreline.
Behind the Clipper`s passing late Saturday night into Sunday, expect
the winds to veer to the west and eventually northwest, with gales
up to 35 kts being possible over mainly the east half on Sunday (20
to 60% chance, with the highest chances along the southern shoreline
near Pictured Rocks National Lakeshore). As additional shortwave
ridging returns to the area early next week, expect the winds to
slacken back down to 20 kts or less by Monday. However, another
Clipper low potentially moving by the area on Tuesday could bring
southerly winds of 20 to 30 kts back across the lake ahead of it.

Northern Green Bay and northwestern Lake Michigan: Northwest winds
of 15 to 20 kts continue today before dying down to 15 kts or less
tonight as high pressure ridging moves through the region. However,
as a Clipper approaches the Upper Great Lakes on Saturday, expect
the winds to pick up from the south throughout the day, eventually
getting up to 20 to 25 kts by the evening hours as the low skirts
along the northern Lake Superior shoreline. While we can expect the
winds to weaken down closer to 20 kts as they veer with time late
Saturday night into Sunday, expect the winds to pick up once again
from the northwest to 20 to 25 kts Sunday afternoon behind the
Clipper. With high pressure ridging returning for early next week
though, expect light winds of 15 kts or less to return to northwest
Lake MI and northern Green Bay by Monday. However, don`t expect the
light winds to last all that long as another Clipper system moving
by the region could bring south/southwesterly winds of 20 to 30 kts
back to the area on Tuesday.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Freeze Warning from 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening to 10 AM
     EDT /9 AM CDT/ Saturday for MIZ002>007-009>014-084-085.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...TAP