164
FXUS63 KMQT 190851
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
451 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Showers and thunderstorms linger mainly across the eastern UP
through the morning, largely ending this afternoon.

-Temperatures trend more towards normal.

- Potential heavy rain event this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 451 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Low pressure moving over Ontario continues to slowly drag a cold
front through the area today. Showers and storms out ahead of it
have become lighter and more spotty in nature over the past few
hours, currently training over the central UP and Lake Superior. The
front, currently moving into the western UP, should be heading into
the central and eastern UP by the afternoon hours. There is a chance
for some additional showers and even a few rumbles of thunder to
develop along the boundary, but early morning cloud cover may limit
destabilization today. For what it`s worth, CAMs also struggle to
develop anything more than some spotty, weak activity this
afternoon.

Otherwise, look for a cooler day with temperatures ranging in the
70s under cloudy skies. Winds may initially be breezy with the
passing front, but should turn calmer into the evening hours as a
ridge begins to build behind the exiting system. Most of hte area
should be dry tonight, but a few showers will still not be totally
ruled out across the south-central UP as the weakening boundary
continues to sag southward. Temperatures fall back into the 50s
across most of the area, but some cooler spots may reach the upper
40s, especially where we can see some breaks in the clouds.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 451 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Weak lower to midlevel ridging builds southward from Ontario for
Thursday while a weak trough ripples through WI and the LP. With dry
lower to midlevels apparent in soundings, a drier scenario will
likely win out for Thursday - but still will allow for the
possibility of a few showers and rumbles of thunder, mainly across
the south-central UP.

Thursday night, a shortwave begins to eject out of the Rockies,
kicking off warm frontogenesis and our next chances for rain and
thunderstorms as early as Friday morning. The front stalls out
somewhere in our vicinity Friday, strengthening Friday evening into
early this weekend as a surface low closes off and deepens, and a 30-
45kt LLJ becomes directed across the boundary. We could see some
heavy rainfall out of this, as ensembles show PWATs near the max of
modeled climatology (nearly 2"). With training very possible along
the front given it`s slow movement northwards, we may need to keep
an eye on flooding concerns across our area. Will note that
ensembles are indicating a high chance (as high as 50-70% chance)
for rain totals in excess of an inch across much of the area by
Saturday evening, in particular across the western UP, where we`ve
been able to pick up on quite a bit of rainfall over the past
several days already. The low moves ENE through the area Saturday
night, and we may be able to see a brief dry period overnight into
early Sunday before another clipper drops through during the daytime
Sunday. This will bring in another round of showers and storms to
finish out the weekend.

Moving into early next week, expect ridging and finally some drier
weather as a high pressure moves from the Plains through the
Midwest. This will give way to yet another potential for some wet
weather by Tuesday as a shortwave moving through Ontario drags a
cold front through the Great Lakes.

Overall, expect temperatures to be near normal for the extended
period, with some days showing below normal high temperatures (such
as Thursday, Friday, and Sunday). Outside of the rain and storm
chances throughout the next week, the only other thing worth
mentioning is the possibility for localized river flooding along the
Chocolay River near Harvey. With much of the basin having received
between 2 to 3.5 inches of rainfall over the past 24+ hours, and the
Observation Program Leader having gone out to the Chocolay near
Yelden (around Skandia) and seeing the river already up to the
bridge, there may be some isolated spots along the river near Harvey
that could see some river flooding issues that are more typical to
the Spring-time (water in basements, etc.) This situation will
continue to be monitored by the staff here at WFO MQT, as well as
the NCRFC while the water from the recent rainfall slowly exits the
Chocolay River Basin into Lake Superior.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 114 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Shra/tsra associated with a cold front will spread eastward from
western Upper MI overnight, but will likely diminish with time. The
shra/tsra will continue at IWD/CMX for another hour or two before
shifting mostly e of the terminals. IFR cigs will set in at both
terminals toward daybreak, if not sooner, as cold front passes.
Until fropa, LLWS will also continue. Conditions at IWD/CMX will
improve to VFR late morning/early aftn. Westerly winds at CMX today
will gust to around 30kt. At SAW, expect shra/vcts for the next few
hrs. Conditions should remain VFR unless heavier shra pass across
the terminal. Expect a period of MVFR cigs at SAW this morning with
VFR for the aftn.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 451 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Winds remain fairly erratic early this morning with lingering
convection as a cold front slowly moves through the area. That said,
ahead of the front, winds should primarily be out of the south while
veering to the SW then west behind it. Gusts to 20-25kts remain
common across the lake, though higher gusts up to 25-30kts will be
possible especially between the Keweenaw and Isle Royale this
morning. Winds weaken to 20 knots or less again by the early evening
as ridging builds in over Lake Superior behind the decaying cold
front boundary. Winds stay light at until this weekend, when a
Colorado Low followed by a Clipper system will see winds gusting to
around 20kts Saturday and Sunday. Ridging into early next week will
bring a return to quiet weather.

The other mentionable hazard over Lake Superior for the next several
days is thunderstorms. Thunderstorms continue to move across the
central portions of the lake early this morning, finally moving out
by the early afternoon. Then, chances for thunderstorms return
Friday and continue through the weekend with our aforementioned
systems moving through, though severe weather is not looking likely
at this point.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for MIZ014.

Lake Superior...
  Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for
     LSZ162-263-264.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...LC
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...LC