238
FXUS63 KMQT 030017
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
717 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will be unseasonably warm today through Wednesday
  with highs/lows up to 25F warmer than seasonal averages.

- Periods of widespread rain are expected this afternoon through
  the mid-week. There is a 70-95% chance for over 1" of rainfall
  over a 48 hour period, highest in the south-central and
  eastern U.P.

- Lake enhanced to lake effect rain showers expected to continue
  over the north to northwest wind belts late this work week.
  Temperatures closer to normal are also expected to return late
  this week.

- There is up to a 50% chance for low-end gales over central
  Lake Superior on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Similar to yesterday, temperatures across the UP are climbing into
the high 50s and low 60s this afternoon, as highs are projected to
reach 15-20F above normal in the low and mid 60s. Southeasterly
surface winds, currently at 5-15 mph, are building, and GOES Day
Cloud imagery shows low-level clouds with southeasterly motion below
high-level, glaciating clouds with northwesterly motion. RAP surface
analysis shows a 997mb Colorado low deepening to 996mb as it tracks
from eastern NE toward western MN over the past 2 hours. WPC surface
analysis has the warm front of this low draped across southern
Ontario, well north of the UP and Lake Superior, and dewpoints in
the mid-50s are advecting into the CWA. Some low radar returns are
working their way across the UP from west to east, and MRMS
estimates that less than 0.10" inch has fallen across the western
reaches of the UP.

The aforementioned Colorado low goes through several iterations of
stretching and splitting over the next few days, sending waves of
precipitation in our direction as the low morphs and re-forms.
Tonight`s rainfall is focused on the northern head of the low, which
then splits from its parent throughout Tuesday, resulting in a brief
lull in rainfall Tuesday morning. The remnant (southern) low lingers
over Wisconsin for all of Wednesday, consolidating and deepening as
it does so; this places the UP within the warm sector and in a good
spot to receive continued dousing during the second half of
Wednesday. Early Thursday, this second Colorado low gathers steam
and moves northeast, leaving the UP in CAA with wrap-around
moisture, leading to (relatively) light lake effect showers in
northerly and northwesterly wind belts, primarily in the western UP.

For the 48-hour period from tonight through Wednesday night at 7pm
EST, the NBM shows 70-95% chance of receiving greater than 1" of
rainfall across much of the UP, with the highest probabilities
focused across the southern tier and in the Keweenaw. For this same
time period for greater than 2" of rain, chances decrease to 10-45%,
with the highest chances again across the south and the Keweenaw.
Per the LREF, PWAT values at times over the next two days reach 100%
of climatology at 1.6", and are otherwise between 1.2" and 1.5".
This is unlikely to be even close to realized as surface
precipitation since the LREF shows only up to 100 J/kg of MUCAPE for
some times during this period. Thus, a rumble of thunder may be
heard and rainfall amounts on the higher end may be locally reached.
Given the ongoing drought and long duration of this event, flooding
and heavy precipitation rates are not a concern at this time. Given
a very moist atmosphere due to antecedent rain, patchy fog looks to
be widespread tonight over much of the CWA tonight and tomorrow
morning.

As the Colorado low departs northeast throughout Thursday and CAA
sets in, temperatures begin to drop and winds shift northerly.
Lingering moisture will allow lake effect showers to form, though
totals will be much less than the preceding 48 hours, on the order
of 0.1" - 0.3". The highest totals will be seen across the
northern/western quadrant of the UP (Gogebic, Ontonagon,
Houghton, Keweenaw, Baraga, and northern Marquette Counties). As
low temperatures approach normal in the low 30s Friday morning,
lake effect showers may turn to lake effect flurries in areas
of higher terrain. At this time, snow is anticipated to be
restricted mostly to the Michigamme Highlands, for a brief
period prior to sunrise on Friday morning. Highs are expected to
settle back down into the near- normal range (40s) for Friday,
with lows in the high 20s and low 30s, prior to ridging and
slightly warmer temperatures returning during the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 716 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

A low pressure over MN continues to support abundant low level
moisture in the region, lowering CIGs down to primarily IFR for the
duration of the 0Z TAF period. Associated showers initially are
presenting the worst conditions (VLIFR) at CMX, which should improve
back to IFR by 3Z. Showers will impact all sites this evening into
tonight with MVFR VIS, followed by a brief lull for late tonight and
Tuesday morning. During this lull, IWD and CMX are anticipated to
return to low-end MVFR. Meanwhile, SAW lowers to LIFR early Tuesday
morning. Another round of showers is expected on Tuesday with sites
returning IFR/LIFR late in the period. LLWS mention continues at
CMX/IWD early in the forecast with a new short addition at SAW early
tonight with a passing low level jet. Southeast winds turn south for
Tuesday, gradually diminishing through the period. Strongest gusts
of 20-25 kts are expected this evening into tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 322 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Lake Superior: Southeasterlies increase to 20 kt sustained with
gusts 25-30 kts over the eastern half of the lake tonight. Waves
increase to 5-7 feet by Tuesday morning. As a Colorado low
progresses toward the region from the Northern Plains then stalls
out, long-duration precipitation tonight through Wednesday (with a
lull Tuesday morning) is anticipated across Lake Superior. A few
weak thunderstorms and heavier rainfall may occur during this time.

Winds and waves lay down Tuesday overnight into Wednesday to 10-15
kt sustained and gusts to 15-20 kts, with waves less than 4 feet, as
part of the low splits and transits northeast across Lake Superior.
Wind direction remains southerly over the eastern lake, and variable
over the western lake during this time. Late Wednesday, the stronger
(second) low center transits directly over Lake Superior, causing a
distinct wind shift from southerly to northerly throughout Thursday.
Elevated winds kick in behind this low, with sustained northerlies
to 25-30 kts and gusts to 35 kt. As of now, guidance shows up to 55%
chance of low-end gale force gusts (35 kt). The highest winds are
anticipated over the western central lake during the second half of
Thursday, and then over the eastern central lake during the first
half of Friday. Waves in the southern part of Lake Superior are
predicted to 12 feet. Winds diminish to below gale-force gusts late
Friday and to less than 10 kts sustained by Saturday morning as
ridging builds in.

Northern Lake Michigan and northern Bay of Green Bay: Southerlies
increase to 15-20 kt sustained with gusts to 20-30 kt tonight as a
warm front pushes in. Waves build to 3-5 feet in the northern Bay of
Green Bay by Tuesday morning. This system also brings rain showers
and a few thunderstorms to the Bay of Green Bay through the middle
of this week. Sustained winds at 10-20 kt and gusts to 25 kt linger
with waves 2-4 ft through Wednesday, with a brief lull (gusts to 20
kt) Tuesday overnight. Southerlies lay down to less than 15 kt
Thursday morning prior to veering northerly with the onset of CAA.
Winds quickly increase to 20 kt sustained and gusts to 30 kt late
Thursday, while waves increase to 4 ft by Friday morning. Elevated
winds remain until diminishing Friday overnight as high pressure and
light winds move in for the weekend.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RE
AVIATION...77
MARINE...RE/TAP