503
FXUS63 KMQT 292312
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
712 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few lake-breeze driven showers and thunderstorms are possible
(up to around a 20-30% chance) in the interior west and central UP
this afternoon. More widespread chances for showers and
thunderstorms return for Thursday through Saturday. Severe weather
is not expected over the next few days.

- High temperatures increase well into the 80s on Thursday, then
fall back into the 70s from Friday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Today`s upper level pattern features benign northwest flow on the
periphery of strong ridging anchored over the central CONUS. GOES
visible satellite reveals mostly clear skies across Upper Michigan
and Lake Superior as of mid afternoon as surface high pressure
persists over the region, with temperatures warming into low to mid
80s in most locations away from the lakeshores. A few of the more
excitable CAMs have continued to depict a few showers and
thunderstorms popping up on the lake breeze later this afternoon,
which remains plausible given around 500 J/kg SBCAPE over the
central and western UP per SPC mesoanalysis. Have thus held onto 20-
30% chance PoPs in the forecast through the remaining daylight
hours, although hourly HRRR updates continue to keep us dry for the
rest of the day. Will continue to keep an eye on satellite and radar
trends to see if anything pops up through the afternoon, but either
way do not expect any strong to severe storms given weak shear and
rather limited instability.

Temperatures trend upward on Thursday as the ridge axis acquires a
positive tilt and shifts eastward to the Great Lakes, yielding 500
mb height rises and 850 mb temps warming to 18-20 C. This will
correspond to highs in the mid to upper 80s over much of the area,
with a few spots pushing 90 near the WI border. This will once again
yield some modest instability and a 20-30% chance for showers and
thunderstorms as a pair of disturbances over northern Ontario and
the Northern Plains, respectively, approach late in the day. The
southern stream disturbance will move across Lower Michigan on Friday
and interact with a cold front extending from the low over northern
Ontario, bringing increased rain and thunderstorm chances to the UP
on Friday as high temperatures dip back into the 70s. Chances for a
wetting rain of at least a quarter inch range from 50-70% across the
western and central UP through Friday night per the NBM, with closer
to a 30-50% chance in the east. A few showers and thunderstorms
could linger into early Saturday in the wake of these systems. Do
not expect any strong to severe storms for any of these periods as
shear remains weak for the next few days.

Sunday into Monday favors drier weather a high pressure builds back
into the region, with temperatures looking to climb back into the
80s for much of next week. Another approaching trough will bring
increasing precipitation chances again towards the middle of next
week, but details are sparse at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 712 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for the duration of the TAF period.
Clear skies give way to increasing mid and upper level cloud cover
Thursday afternoon ahead of a couple disturbances, but confidence in
coverage and timing of any showers and storms is too low to include
in the TAF at this time.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 324 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Expect winds to remain below 20 kt for much of the next week amidst
benign weather. Weak troughing moving back into the region on
Thursday will bring chances for a few thunderstorms over Lake
Superior and northern Lake Michigan through Saturday. but do not
expect any of these storms to be severe.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...CB