235
FXUS63 KMQT 270627
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
227 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms are possible again today. However,
  there still remains some uncertainty on whether the severe
  convection will happen or not, and if so, where and when.

- Generally quieter weather in store after today into the middle
  of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

For the most part, yesterday into early this morning has turned into
part 2 of a severe weather bust as supercell convection as skirted
around the CWA to the west/southwest and east, mainly avoiding the
western and central U.P. over the past 24 hours. That being said,
synoptic-scale severe weather ingredients still for the most part
remain in place as MUCAPEs of greater than 1000 J/kg either remain
across the area or are replenished back up to that amount by the
afternoon hours (if we receive convection overhead this morning).
Meanwhile, bulk shear values still look to range from 30 to 65
knots, with an incoming Clipper low providing a forcing mechanism.
While guidance has somewhat converged on a solution bringing at
least some showers and storms to the area today, I remain HIGHLY
SKEPTICAL on the severe weather threat considering 1) the past two
days have been severe weather busts, either missing us to the
west/southwest or east and 2) the latest WOFS runs show most of the
resolved updraft helicities > 70 m2/s2 missing our area entirely to
our south and west. After having a call with SPC this morning, it
still seems probable that the far west could be grazed by some
potentially severe convection; therefore a Severe Thunderstorm Watch
is in effect until 14z this morning (or until cancelled) for Gogebic
and Ontonagon counties. While the conditions for an isolated tornado
no longer seem to be there, there is still a theoretical non-zero
chance for some damaging hail and winds today. While showers and
storms are possible throughout the entirety of today, the best
chances appear to occur during the late afternoon hours as shown by
the NBM wanting to bring likely (55-74%) to definite (75+%) chances
of precipitation overhead during that time. As we approach the
evening hours, expect the convection as well as the severe weather
threat to vanish as the Clipper pulls the showers and storms further
southeast into Lower Michigan.

Expect quieter weather as we move into the rest of the week as
heights rise over the central CONUS, creating a quasi omega block
pattern. While cold air advection moving in tonight could create
some very light upslope drizzle showers in the north wind belts,
thinking that we will remain dry due to sfc to mid-level ridging
increasing over the Upper Great Lakes. Thus, while we should see
temperatures closer to normal today and Tuesday, as the shortwave
ridge begins to depart on Wednesday, expect temperatures to climb to
above normal once again as we head towards the latter half of the
week. In addition, with the departure of the shortwave ridge, we
could see Northern Rockies/Canadian shortwaves move into the Upper
Midwest near the end of this week into this weekend, allowing
additional showers and storms to return.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 121 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Showers and storms continue to graze IWD tonight, with any storm
going over the terminal potentially leading to erratic, gusty winds
and even some hail. Showers and storms are more likely to stay south
of CMX and SAW, but if they do reach the area, the potential would
be between 10-20/22Z. Otherwise, with light winds and breaks in
the clouds, fog and low stratus become possible mainly at CMX
later tonight, which may bring MVFR/IFR ceiling and visibility.
This lifts after sunrise. Following a brief break in convection,
another batch of showers and storms becomes possible for the
afternoon and early evening hours, with drops down to MVFR
possible as well as gusty winds. There is also a threat for
strong to severe storms once again, particularly at SAW.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 227 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Light winds of 20 knots or less dominate the lake this week,
although some gusts to 20+ knots are possible today as cold air
advection follows behind a Clipper passing through the area. This
Clipper could also bring showers and storms to the lake, with some
potentially bringing damaging/erratic winds and large hail to the
sfc. Expect the showers and storms to be done before sunset though
as the convection moves off towards the Lower Peninsula.

Outside of the storms today, expect marine fog across much of Lake
Superior, with much of it being dense. Therefore, a Dense Fog
Advisory has been issued until Noon EDT. Fog could persist
throughout the day today and restrengthen tonight, but the cold air
advecting into the area from the north may hinder those efforts.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Dense Fog Advisory until noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today for LSZ162-
     263-264-266-267.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...LC/TAP
MARINE...TAP