822
FXUS63 KMQT 261141
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
741 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry weather persists through Monday with high pressure over
the area.

- High temperatures remain slightly slightly above average in the
upper 60s to low 70s through early next week.

- A few rain showers may graze the western UP tonight into Sunday,
but chances for more widespread rainfall hold off until Tuesday into
Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

GOES water vapor imagery continues to depict an Omega-like blocking
pattern with a stout ridge over the central CONUS bookended by deep
upper level troughing off the Mid-Atlantic coast and over western
Canada. At the surface, RAP analysis shows sprawling high pressure
persisting over much of the Great Lakes Basin and eastern Canada.
The result is clear skies over Upper Michigan early this morning
with temperatures dropping well down into the 40s across much of the
area. Patchy fog development is being observed in many locations,
especially across the central UP. Will continue to monitor
visibility trends through the rest of the morning to see if any
headlines become necessary.

The combination of the upper level blocking pattern and surface high
pressure will more or less maintain the status quo today through
Monday, yielding mostly dry weather as highs climb into the upper
60s to low 70s across the area each day. Still could see a few
showers graze the far western UP as a weak shortwave rides up the
ridge late tonight into Sunday, but impacts remain minimal as
guidance keeps any measurable rain confined to Gogebic and Ontonagon
Counties, with the latest HREF depicting a 30% chance for as much as
a tenth of an inch of rain around Ironwood. Otherwise, seasonably
warm temps and good mixing out of dewpoints will continue to yield
RH values dipping to around 40% if not a bit lower in interior areas
each afternoon, but the weak pressure gradient and resulting light
winds will continue to limit any fire weather concerns.

A pattern change still appears likely by the middle of next week as
high pressure finally breaks down and opens the door to upper level
troughing and subsequent cooler and wetter weather across the
region. Although plenty of spread remains, guidance has at least
started to come into general agreement on some of the large scale
details, bringing a swath of rain across the UP sometime late
Tuesday through early Wednesday. Will have to wait on some of the
finer scale details to come into place before starting to get too
far into potential rain amounts, but NBM probabilities for at least
a half inch have come down slightly to 20-30% across the area in the
past few runs.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 740 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

After fog lifts from CMX and SAW, VFR conditions will prevail for
the 12Z TAF period. With sprawling high pressure overhead, winds
will be generally southerly and light, and cloud cover will be
minimal. CMX and SAW have been persistently at VLIFR VIS for several
hours, but FG/BR should lift within an hour or two after
sunrise thanks to clear skies. Cloud cover will increase during
second half of period at IWD & CMX but without changes to VFR
conditions. Current LAMP probabilities indicate SAW is the most
likely to experience FG which could form as early 06Z. Given
continuing high pressure pattern and clear skies at SAW tonight,
went ahead and included restrictions to IFR BR at end of TAF
period for SAW.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 215 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

For Lake Superior: East-southeast winds of 10 to 15 kt prevail
across most of the lake today, with wave heights remaining around 1
foot. A weak disturbance brushing the western end of the lake
tonight could bring a few gusts of around 20 kt from the Keweenaw to
Isle Royale, but winds diminish and shift southerly by Sunday
morning. High pressure then keeps winds mainly 10 kt or less Sunday
through Monday. A stronger storm system could pass through the
region early to mid next week, but details are still up in the air
as NBM gale probabilities have dropped to 20-30% for Tuesday and
Wednesday, mainly over the eastern half of the lake.

For the Bay of Green Bay and Northern Lake Michigan: High pressure
maintains light winds of generally 10 kt or less with wave heights
around 1 foot through Monday. A stronger storm system could impact
the area Tuesday into Wednesday with southerly winds increasing to
15-20 kt, but current gale probabilities remain around 5-15%.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...RE
MARINE...CB