660
FXUS63 KMQT 301909
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
309 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures drop back into the 60s on Thursday and cool to near
seasonal normal values in the upper 50s to low 60s through the
weekend. Frost and freeze concerns are likely from Thursday night
onward.

- Breezy conditions are expected as winds shift out of the west-
northwest Thursday and Friday. Gusts around 30mph are likely near
Lake Superior from the Keweenaw east to Whitefish Point.

- Winds calm Saturday before a chance (10-30%) of gales for
southeastern Lake Superior enters the forecast Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Current radar imagery indicates that this morning`s precipitation
has cleared out of the area. Visible satellite shows mid-level cloud
cover also moving out of the U.P. as its associated system
progresses eastward and is replaced with a relatively dry air mass.
Cloud cover is expected to stick around this evening in the form of
low-level cumulus clouds currently building in response to diurnal
heating in the western U.P. as the cloud cover higher aloft leaves
the area.

Tonight`s low temperatures are expected to be warmer than average
thanks to the cloud cover sticking around. Light southerly winds are
expected across the U.P., which, combined with high RH from this
morning`s precipitation, could lead to the development of fog
overnight. Thursday is expected to stay mostly cloudy and mainly
dry. A prevailing zonal pattern is forecast across the area Thursday
morning due to a combination of a 500mb longwave trough over central
Canada and large-scale ridging over the SE CONUS. At the surface, a
cold front associated with a low in Ontario is expected to move
across the area Thursday morning, causing winds to increase and
shift to northwesterly, daytime RH to drop, and skies to clear.
Given the relatively warm lake surface and northwesterly winds,
there is potential for a stray lake effect rain shower or two,
however, any showers that reach the ground will be brief with
minimal accumulation. Clear skies will result in below-average low
temperatures Thursday night, resulting in a frost potential around
20-50% for the interior.

The cooling trend continues Friday, with seasonably cool highs in
the upper 50s. Breezy conditions out of the northwest are expected
throughout the day near the southeastern Lake Superior lakeshore,
with gusts around 30mph. Lake effect showers may also return to the
eastern U.P. on Friday, but will again remain spotty and light.
Frost concerns return Friday night as lows reach the upper 20s to
low 30s, about 8-10 degrees below average. Winds die down Friday
night into Saturday as a surface high moves into the region, but are
expected to return along with chances for precipitation Saturday
night into Sunday as a weak clipper system progresses into southern
Ontario. Precipitation totals are expected to remain low (around a
30% chance of 24-hour accumulations exceeding a tenth of an inch),
however, chances for precipitation are widespread across the U.P.
Sunday also brings the next best chance for gales, although a large
amount of model uncertainty remains. The NBM`s highest chances are
around 30% off the coast of Luce County, with 15-20% in the rest of
southeastern Lake Superior. The LREF is much less optimistic, with
gale chances remaining out of the forecast entirely. Looking ahead
to the start of next week, temperatures are expected to remain
relatively cool through Tuesday.



&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 150 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Ceilings will continue to rise this afternoon, with VFR conditions
expected for the late afternoon and evening at all terminals. Patchy
fog is expected across the area tonight. IFR conditions are likely
at KSAW overnight (60%) and possible at KCMX (30%), with conditions
becoming VFR after sunrise. Northwesterly winds with gusts of 15 to
25 kts will develop during the day on Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Lake Superior: Winds are currently southwesterly over the western
arm of the lake at around 10kts and southerly over the eastern
portion of the lake at around 5kts until a cold front progresses
across the lake Thursday morning, causing winds to increase and
shift to northwesterly. Wave heights will be 2-3ft across most of
the lake, with the southeastern portion reaching 3-5ft heights. West-
northwesterly flow around 15-20kts expands into areas west of the
Keweenaw Thursday afternoon and overnight Friday. Wind speeds
decrease to around 10kts for the western arm Friday, but are
expected to increase to 20-30kts in the east. Friday night into
Saturday, winds are expected to decrease in strength to around 10kts
and shift to southerly as surface high pressure moves across the
lake. Winds remain southerly Saturday night, then increase in speed
and shift to west-northwesterly Sunday morning. Wind speeds could
reach gale conditions in the southeast Sunday, however, there is
still considerable uncertainty remaining in the forecast. If winds
approaching gales remain in the forecast, wave height could reach up
to 10ft in the southeast, with 4-8ft waves in the northeast and 1-
4ft waves in the western arm.


Northern Green Bay and northwestern Lake Michigan: This afternoon,
expect southerly winds around 10-15kts, decreasing to 5-10kts and
shifting westerly by the mid-morning Thursday. Winds remain around
10kts, but shift to northerly Thursday afternoon, with conditions
remaining the same overnight. Wave heights will remain below 1ft in
the bay and reach 3ft in NW Lake Michigan. Friday morning,
northwesterly winds pick up to around 15kts before dropping to
around 10kts Friday afternoon as a surface high moves into the area.
Waves will remain between 1-2ft. Winds shift to southerly and
decrease to around 5kts Friday night into Saturday morning, with
calm waters expected. Saturday afternoon, southerly winds increase
up to around 15kts with waves around 1-3ft. Overnight Saturday,
winds shift once more to westerly and increase in speed up to around
15kts. By Sunday afternoon, winds are expected to be out of the
northwest at around 15kts with waves around 2-3ft.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ014.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LH
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...LH