862
FXUS63 KMQT 281132
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
732 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures climb well above normal today with widespread
  high in the mid to upper 60s.

- A quick hitting system brings widespread light rain to the UP
  tonight into early Thursday. Expect fairly minimal amounts in
  most locations, with the best chance for a wetting rain over
  the western UP.

- Expect a cooler and drier end to the work week as temperatures
  settle back into the 50s for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Early morning RAP analysis and GOES water vapor imagery show a pair
of weak disturbances embedded in southwest flow aloft, one over
northern Ontario and another over Lower Michigan. Radar reveals
spotty shower activity departing the far eastern UP in association
with these features, with broken mid level cloud cover and some
patchy fog in place across the rest of Upper Michigan. Temperatures
will spike well above normal today as continued warm advection sends
850 mb temps to 9 to 11 C over the area this afternoon. The NBM is
advertising high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s this
afternoon. Feel this might be slightly overdone given the degree of
cloud cover in place. Regardless, still expect temperatures to run
15-20 degrees ahead of late October norms this afternoon as high s
reach at least the low to mid 60s.

The next system approaches the area tonight as a surface low over
the central Plains tracks quickly northeastward to western Lake
Superior by later this evening, bringing a quick hitting round of
rain to the UP from west to east tonight into early Thursday
morning. Rainfall remain in line with previous forecast cycles,
giving a roughly 50-75% chance for a wetting rain of a quarter inch
across the western third of the UP and closer to a 10-25% chance for
the central and eastern UP through Thursday morning. Could see a few
rumbles of thunder accompany this activity given a few hundred J/kg
MUCAPE. SPC even has a marginal risk for severe weather into the far
western. Modest instability would seemingly be a significant
limiting factor to this potential, but can`t completely rule out a
few stronger storms given bulk shear values of 40-50 kt by late this
evening.

A cold front crosses the UP Thursday morning, with precipitation
quickly winding down in the east as surface high pressure builds in
from the northern Plains. This will drop highs back down into the
50s in most locations on Thursday afternoon, with breezy west-
northwest winds also expected, especially in the Keweenaw and along
the Lake Superior shoreline where winds will likely gust to 30+ mph.
Cooler and drier weather continues into Friday as surface high
pressure moves directly overhead. There is still a high degree of
model spread beyond Friday as high pressure departs to the Atlantic
this weekend. Guidance hints at a stronger system moving out of the
Plains and approaching the Great Lakes during the early part of next
week, but with a lot of variation with respect, to track, timing,
and intensity.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 732 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

MVFR cigs are present at IWD/CMX this morning while SAW remains
stuck in the soup. Southerly flow and continued moisture advection
hold similar conditions through the morning hours before breezy
southerlies and better mixing help lift low cigs/vis to VFR by early
afternoon at the latest. Another shortwave presses west of Lake
Superior this evening, bringing a round of rain and even some
thunderstorms from west to east, reaching IWD/CMX between ~22-03Z
and SAW by 03-05Z. LLWS will be present at all sites tonight given
veering wind profiles and 1-2k ft winds gusting between 35-45 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 338 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Lake Superior: Winds gradually veer south-southwesterly and diminish
below 20 kt today as the latest system departs to the north and east.
Southerlies quickly increase again tonight as another low tracks
into northern Ontario, bringing about the next round of small craft
headlines which appear likely to persist through much of the rest of
the week. Winds shift northwesterly behind a cold front on Thursday,
gusting to 25-30 kt over the eastern half of the lake aided by cold
advection and pressure rises. Gale chances have increase to 50-60%
over central and eastern parts of the lake per the NBM, but have
opted against any watches for now as HREF and EPS probabilities show
significantly lower gale potential. Winds diminish below 20 kt as
high pressure builds over the region Thursday night into Friday.

Northern Lake Michigan and northern Bay of Green Bay: Another low
passing north of the area tonight increases southerlies to 20-25 kt
through Thursday morning, necessitating a round of small craft
headlines. Winds shift northwesterly at 10-15 kt behind a passing
cold front on Thursday, with lighter winds then expected as high
pressure builds in for the end of the week.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...CB