523
FXUS63 KMQT 040927
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
427 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm temperatures through tonight, between 15 and 25
degrees above seasonal averages.

- Periods of widespread rain are expected through Thursday with
additional rainfall amounts between 0.25 and 0.75 inches, higher
amounts up to 1 inch in the far west and Keweenaw.

- Lake enhanced to lake effect rain showers over the north to
northeast wind precipitation belts Thursday into Friday.
Temperatures closer to normal return late this week.

- A Gale Warning is now in effect for northerly gales of 35 to 45
knots across most of Lake Superior Thursday. Strongest winds over
the central waters.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

A closed low centered over southern MN is spinning relatively
stationary this morning with another closed low forming over the
Great Basin. Beneath the midwest closed low is a ~999 mb sfc low
lifting north along the MN/WI state line. Temps in the mid 50s to
around 60 will make minimal change this morning as low level WAA
persists. Ample moisture is present noted by PWATs between 1.3 and
1.6 inches, above the NAEFS 99.5th percentile across the UP and the
max of all hours in the east and Keweenaw! This alongside an upper
level 100 kt jet streak, embedded shortwave lifting north, and
isentropic upglide support scattered shower coverage this morning
and early afternoon. Additional accumulations are going to range
from 0.25 to 0.75 inches. Drier air pressing in from the southwest
today will quickly diminish shower coverage this afternoon. Today
and tonight bring the last period of well above normal temps (15 to
25 F above average) during the forecast with highs in the 60s and
lows in the 40s.

As the aforementioned closed low continues its eastward track
Thursday, it merges into troughing over Ontario before eventually
splitting. This will allow the associated surface low to produce
lake enhanced and eventually pure lake effect precipitation over the
NNE wind belts. Ptype will initially be all rain; however, as CAA
strengthens late Thursday, look for a transition to snow across the
western half of the U.P. through Friday morning. But, no snow
accumulations are expected. In addition, pressure rises/CAA
will make Thursday a particularly windy day with widespread
northerly wind gusts in the 25 to 30 mph range.

Further out, drier weather will return for the weekend as high
pressure strengthens over the area, and once again there will be a
slight warmup into the 50s from Sunday through the end of the
extended period. This will be after a brief dip in high temperatures
into the upper 30s/low 40s on Friday. Overnight lows, however, will
bottom out in the 20s under significant nighttime radiational
cooling.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Flight restrictions continue through the duration of the 6Z TAF
period as a low pressure lifts north along the WI/MI state line.
Ample low level moisture and periods of showers, particularly
between 12 and 18Z, yield IFR to LIFR conditions, lowest at CMX and
SAW where there is a 20-50% chance of VLIFR. East to southeast winds
become south today between 5 to 10 kts, then a front pressing in
from the west shifts winds northwest late in the period at IWD
and CMX.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 426 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Lake Superior: NE gusts of 25 to 30 kts continue across the western
arm of the lake this morning as a surface low enters the western UP.
A brief lull in gusts will occur today before picking back up
tonight through Thursday. Pressure rises and cold air advection will
increase N to NNE winds in the western and central portions of the
lake between 35-45 kts Thursday morning as surface troughing departs
east, eventually spreading to the eastern lake through Thursday
afternoon, building significant wave heights upwards of 10 ft. Gale
Warnings have been hoisted for much of Lake Superior through
Thursday. Gales fall off from west to east late Thursday through
Friday morning.

Northern Lake Michigan and northern Bay of Green Bay: Breezy
southerlies between 20-25 kts will be the rule through Thursday. A
cold front quickly increases NW winds between 25-35 kts late
Thursday, remaining elevated 25-30 kts through Friday.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for
     LSZ162-240>246-263>267.

  Gale Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for
     LSZ242>244-263-264.

  Gale Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday night
     for LSZ245>248-265-266.

  Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night
     for LSZ249>251-267.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...77/TDUD
AVIATION...77
MARINE...BW/TDUD