267
FXUS63 KMQT 171124
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
724 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slightly cooler than normal temperatures continue through this
weekend, with highs generally being in the 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 334 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Early morning RAP analysis shows a 500mb trough axis centered over
the UP and moving east. This trough is causing some light rain
showers, aided by upsloping meridional surface flow helping compress
a saturated surface layer. However, with the trough quickly
moving through the area, the height rises in the wake of the
trough will usher in drying conditions with surface high
pressure of near 1020mb setting up over MN by noon Eastern
today, bringing an end to the rain across the UP. Clearing skies
will allow temperatures to warm up more than yesterday for many
locations, though high temperatures around the 70 degree mark
are still about 5 degrees below normal for mid-July. Winds will
also see a decreasing trend due to the slackening pressure
gradient with the approaching surface high pressure, with gusty
winds (especially in the east up to 25 mph) early in the morning
falling to around 5-10 mph in the evening.

Tonight, mostly clear skies will allow temperatures to fall to
around the 50 degree mark, still around 5 degrees cooler than normal
for this time of year. A weak shortwave is evident upstream on 500mb
charts, but no CAMs currently have precipitation reaching the UP
prior to 12Z Friday, with cloud cover even holding off except for
over far western Lake Superior.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Normal to below normal temperatures appear to dominate the rest of
this week into early next week as a weakening omega block gives way
to a low pressure system, before another omega block rolls through
early next week. While this should lead to a more active pattern in
regards to differences between sun and showers, we appear to not
have much interaction with the Gulf airmass (thus producing
temperatures around to below normal). Overall, expect high
temperatures in the 60s and 70s this weekend into early next week.

With the low pressure system moving through around the Saturday time
period, we could see some showers and storms across the area. While
medium range guidance does show strong bulk shear, with little CAPE
predicted, severe weather is not expected at this time with the
low`s passage. While the NBM is showing shower and storm chances
early next week, I`m doubtful for these given the omega block
pattern expected overhead. However, confidence in precipitation
returning increases as we head into the middle of next week as
another low pressure system could impact us from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 723 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

With -SHRA having departed all of the terminals, low ceilings are
still hanging on at IWD and SAW but have cleared out at CMX. Both
terminals are expected to rapidly improve to VFR this morning as the
clouds and FG clear out. Gusty northerly winds (up to 20 kt at SAW
this morning) will relax throughout the day and will become more
southerly to southwesterly overnight at around 5 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Northeast to northerly winds of 20 to 25 knots across the lake this
afternoon dwindles to 20 knots or less over the western half this
evening as a low (currently over the Upper Mississippi Valley as of
the time of this writing) moves through the Lower Peninsula and Lake
Huron late tonight. As this occurs, expect the winds to slowly back
to the north tonight over the eastern lake, before dropping down to
20 knots or less by Thursday afternoon. Expect light winds of 20
knots or less to continue across Lake Superior the rest of this week
through this weekend as an omega block of high pressure moves
through before a low pressure moves through the Upper Great Lakes
this weekend; outside of the rogue thunderstorm chances along the
southern shoreline the rest of today through tonight (20% chance or
less), the next shot for thunderstorms will be associated with this
low pressure system. Another omega block looks to move overhead as
we head into early next week.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
     MIZ005-006.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GS
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...TAP