378
FXUS63 KMQT 021812
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
212 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures come in near seasonal (mid 50s to mid 60s)
through the weekend.

- A widespread freeze is expected across the area tonight into
Saturday morning. Most areas inland from the Great Lakes will be
below freezing (the exception Keweenaw County). The interior west
could reach into the lower 20s. A Freeze Warning is in effect for
most of the Upper Peninsula.

- A Clipper low passing through the region this weekend brings
additional light rain chances late Saturday into early Sunday. Winds
behind the cold front will be gusty, with a 20-60% chance of
reaching gale conditions over mainly eastern Lake Superior.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Afternoon RAP analysis and water vapor imagery feature midlevel
shortwave troughing over eastern Ontario and the Pacific Northwest
(set to impact our area over the weekend), and ridging over the
Northern Plains. At the surface, sprawling high pressure is centered
over southwestern MN, keeping the UP under cool, breezy NW flow.
Visible satellite shows plenty of lake effect clouds over the NW
wind belts, and some sprinkles and rain showers continue to be
reported at times in the far eastern UP. However, model soundings
show lowering inversion heights over the next few hours as CAA
weakens, with an increasingly dry airmass overhead. This should
allow lake clouds to continue to erode. Otherwise, temperatures this
afternoon are climbing into the mid 50s, and are not expected to
warm all that much more before sunset.

With the skies being clear and the antecedent air being quite cool,
expect temperatures in the areas away from the Great Lakes to drop
below freezing tonight, with the typical cold spots in the interior
west potentially dropping down to as low as the lower 20s late
tonight/early Saturday morning. Therefore, a Freeze Warning remains
in effect for western and central Upper MI from 10 PM EDT tonight to
10 AM EDT Saturday. In addition, given that the ridging will create
nearly calm winds at the sfc, widespread frost is expected across
the U.P. save the areas north of Houghton.

Otherwise, expect cooler and more seasonable temperatures this
weekend into early next week as the aforementioned PacNW troughing
allows for the development of a Clipper low that moves over the
Great Lakes Saturday into Sunday. This means that high temperatures
are projected to range from the mid-50s to mid-60s across the U.P.
through Monday, while lows drop into the 20s and 30s in the interior
areas through Monday night (save for Saturday night when clouds and
rainfall from the Clipper moving through limit lows to the 40s).

Speaking of the Clipper, while cloud cover from it looks to move
into the west as early as early Saturday morning, dry air in the
lower levels looks to prevent anything from reaching the ground
until at least the late afternoon. However, as the center of the
Clipper `clips` (*buh dum tiss*) northern Lake Superior Saturday
night, CAMs and medium range guidance bring better chances for light
rainfall across the area Saturday night. While nearly all guidance
suggests the highest rainfall amounts north of the U.P. Saturday
night into Sunday morning, the latest REFS run has a general 50 to
100% chance of at least a tenth of an inch of rain falling over the
area Saturday night, with the exception being a less than 50% chance
south of US-2 in Menominee County. While some lake effect sprinkles
could be seen behind the Clipper during the day Sunday over the
northwest wind belts, incoming ridging will put an end to it Sunday
evening. In addition to the rain chances, height falls up to 4 mb/3
hrs and height rises up to 3 mb/3 hrs ahead of and behind the
Clipper, respectively, indicate breezy southerly winds preceding the
Clipper`s arrival on Saturday followed by gusty northwest winds
behind it on Sunday; some northwesterly wind gusts up to 40 mph will
be possible over the Keweenaw and along the Lake Superior shoreline
from Marquette County eastward. While the latest NBM shows a 50 to
70% chance for northwest wind gusts over 40 mph for these areas on
Sunday, the NBM typically runs hot in these scenarios. Wind gusts
have thus been knocked back slightly.

Moving into next week, expect shortwave ridging to keep the area dry
on Monday while another Clipper brings troughing back to the area
next Tuesday. However, expect the Clipper`s passing to be dry, which
could increase fire weather concerns ahead of and behind the
Clipper`s passage next week. Moving towards the end of next week,
medium range guidance slightly differs on the strength of the jet
stream progging along the U.S./Canada border. Should the jet stream
be stronger, we could see some light rain chances return as well as
more `normal Fall-like` temperatures continuing; if not, then we
could see a warm-up again to high temperatures returning to the 60s
across most of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Lake effect clouds are present this morning as cold NW flow streams
across Lake Superior. This continues to lead to intermittent MVFR
restrictions at IWD, while CMX remains more firmly under an MVFR
deck. Expect conditions to improve to VFR for all terminals over the
next couple of hours. NW winds continue to gust to around 15-20kts
at CMX and SAW through the rest of the afternoon before becoming
light and variable overnight, then winds pick up out of the south by
late Saturday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Lake Superior: NW winds continue to gust to 20-30kts over the next
few hours in the eastern half of the lake, then winds fall back
below 20kts over the entire lake tonight. However, as a Clipper low
approaches Lake Superior on Saturday, expect the winds to build from
the south, potentially gusting to 20 to 30 kts over the lake
Saturday evening as the low skirts along the northern shoreline.
Behind the Clipper`s passing late Saturday night into Sunday, expect
the winds to veer to the west and eventually northwest, with gales
up to 35 kts being possible over mainly the east half on Sunday (20
to 60% chance per medium-range guidance, with the highest chances
along the southern shoreline near Pictured Rocks National
Lakeshore). However, as this guidance tends to run high, will hold
off on any headlines for now. As additional shortwave ridging
returns to the area early next week, expect the winds to slacken
back down to 20 kts or less by Monday. Another Clipper low
potentially moving by the area on Tuesday could bring southerly
winds of 20 to 30 kts back across the lake ahead of it.

Northern Green Bay and northwestern Lake Michigan: Northwest wind
gusts of 15-20kts persist the rest of the afternoon, then fall back
below 10kts this evening. However, as a Clipper approaches the Upper
Great Lakes on Saturday, expect the winds to pick up from the south
throughout the day, eventually getting up to 20 to 25 kts by the
evening hours as the low skirts along the northern Lake Superior
shoreline. While we can expect the winds to briefly fall closer to
20 kts as they veer with time Sunday morning, expect the winds to
pick up once again from the northwest to 20 to 25 kts Sunday
afternoon behind the Clipper. With high pressure ridging returning
for early next week though, expect light winds of 15 kts or less to
return to northwest Lake MI and northern Green Bay by Monday.
However, don`t expect the light winds to last all that long as
another Clipper system moving by the region could bring
south/southwesterly winds of 20 to 30 kts back to the area on
Tuesday.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Freeze Warning from 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening to 10 AM
     EDT /9 AM CDT/ Saturday for MIZ002>007-009>014-084-085.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LC/TAP
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...LC/TAP