191
FXUS63 KMQT 020737
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
237 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will be unseasonably warm today to Wednesday with
  highs/lows up to 25F warmer than seasonal averages.

- Periods of widespread rain are expected this afternoon through
  the mid-week. There is a 50-90% chance for over 1" of rainfall
  over a 48 hour period, highest in the south-central and
  eastern U.P.

- Lake enhanced to lake effect rain showers expected to continue
  over the north to northwest wind belts late this work week.
  Temperatures closer to normal are also expected to return late
  this week.

- There is up to a 50% chance for low-end gales over central
  Lake Superior on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

The last of the very light rain showers associated with the passage
of a weak shortwave rolling through the area has ended early this
morning as high pressure ridging continues to deteriorate ahead of a
997mb low over eastern Colorado lifting over the Plains today. The
low is expected to bring its warm front and associated rain showers
overhead by this afternoon. With better WAA moving overhead today,
expect temperatures to once again climb into the upper 50s to mid
60s across the area (even near the Great Lakes) by this afternoon.
While there won`t be much instability to work with when compared to
the summer months, given the robust isentropic lift and
frontogenesis seen with the warm front, the couple hundred Joules of
MUCAPE will be enough to get rain showers and maybe a non-severe
thunderstorm or two going across the area this afternoon and beyond;
some of the showers and storms could be heavy at times, with the
latest NBM showing a 50 to 90% chance of over 1" of rain falling
between this evening and Wednesday evening (the highest chances over
the south central and eastern U.P.). It does look like with some of
the CAMs that there may be a cessation in the rainfall late tonight
into Tuesday morning as the warm front stalls out, before another
round of showers and potentially a few storms move back through the
rest of the day Tuesday into the middle of the week.

Model guidance has converged on the low slowing down over the
Northern Plains as it trudges east into the Great Lakes region this
week. With guidance keeping us under the warm sector of the low
through Wednesday, we can expect rain shower and thunderstorm
chances to at least continue on-and-off (worst/best-case being near-
continuous) through the first half of the work week. Thus, rainfall
amounts could be notably higher than currently predicted in the
forecast (0.75 to 1.50 inches between this morning to Wednesday
evening). As the low continues to move east for the latter half of
the week, guidance is in fairly strong agreement that the low will
split; the more northerly low going into northern Quebec whereas a
remnant low looks to remain over the Great Lakes region until early
Friday. This remnant low remaining over the Great Lakes looks to
bring lake enhanced and eventually pure lake effect precipitation
over the north to northeast wind belts early Thursday into early
Friday over the U.P. as CAA works from north to south over our area.
While mainly rainfall is expected with the lake induced
precipitation, as temperatures cool throughout the atmospheric
profile late this work week we may see a mix over to snowfall at
times; no notable snowfall accumulations are expected at this time.
Ahead of the CAA, expect well above normal temperatures to continue
over the U.P., with highs in the upper 50s to 60s continuing through
even Wednesday (and lows only in the 50s through Tuesday night).
However, once the CAA from Canada drops down, expect temperatures
(particularly the highs) to lower closer to normal for early
November, with highs only projected to get into the 40s to lower 50s
and lows into the 30s to potentially 20s in the interior areas.

Expect drier weather to return this next weekend as high pressure
ridging moves back in behind the lake effect precipitation. While
temperatures are looking to not nearly be as warm as they are
expected to be over the next couple of days, above normal high
temperatures are predicted to once again return for the end of the
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1251 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Primarily VFR conditions are expected this morning as a low pressure
deepens over the Central Plains and high pressure ridging continues
to extend overhead from the Mid-Atlantic coast. Cooling in the low
levels and light, moist southerly flow may (40-60% chance) result in
the exception to this at SAW due to fog and low CIGs between 10-14Z.
Insulating cloud cover so far has delayed initial development and
resulted in guidance trending back on lowering conditions this
morning. All sites begin to deteriorate in the afternoon to MVFR,
eventually IFR in the late afternoon early evening as shower
coverage expands. Probabilities for LIFR CIGs currently are capped
at 25%, so mention was left out for now. IWD/CMX will see a brief
lull in shower coverage accompanied by a lift in CIGs to MVFR near
the end of the 6Z TAF period. Otherwise, southerly winds around 5
kts this morning increase to around 10-15 kts out of the southeast
at all sites with gusts up to 20 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 237 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Lake Superior: Light winds of 20 kts or less this morning give way
to increasing southeast to southerly winds late this afternoon, with
the winds increasing up to 20 to 30 kts over the eastern half of the
lake tonight. In addition to the winds, expect a few weak
thunderstorms to rumble over the lake from time to time this evening
through Wednesday as the warm front stalls out overhead and the low
slowly progs into the Great Lakes region.

Winds weaken from the south to 20 to 25 kts over the eastern lake on
Tuesday before dropping down to around 20 kts or less across the
entire lake on Wednesday as the low`s center approaches. With the
low splitting and remnant troughing remaining over the Great Lakes
region the rest of the work week, light winds continue over the area
until CAA from northern Ontario drops down over Lake Superior
Thursday morning. Expect north to northeasterly winds of 20 to 30
kts across the entire lake by Thursday, with the latest LREF showing
up to a 50% chance for low-end gales up to 34 kts (highest chances
over the central lake). As the CAA weakens Thursday night into
Friday, expect the north to northeasterly winds to dwindle with
time, eventually becoming 20 kts or less again by late Friday as
high pressure ridging builds back into the Upper Great Lakes.

Northern Lake Michigan and northern Bay of Green Bay: Light winds of
15 kts or less this morning increase from the south to 20 to 30 kts
from the south this afternoon through tonight as a warm front pushes
in and brings rain showers and a few thunderstorms to the area this
afternoon through the middle of this week. The elevated southerly
winds continue through Tuesday before weakening to 15 to 20 kts
Tuesday night through Wednesday. The winds look to turn
southwesterly Wednesday night before CAA arriving from Canada brings
northerly winds of 15 to 25 kts to the area Thursday night into
Friday. Winds slacken to 15 kts or less Friday night as high
pressure ridging builds back over the Upper Great Lakes for the
weekend.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...77
MARINE...TAP