440
FXUS63 KMQT 180525
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1225 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Aside from lingering light snow showers through tonight over
  the far eastern UP, dry weather is expected through Wednesday
  with highs near normal in the 30s/40s and lows in the
  teens/20s.

- Next period of widespread precipitation is expected Thursday,
  mainly in the form of light rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

Confluent northwesterly midlevel flow over the local area this
afternoon is promoting an elongated ridge of high pressure from
northern Manitoba southeastward into the western half of the UP.
Meanwhile, northwesterly boundary layer flow continues to generate
lake effect clouds over the east half, with a few light snow showers
over portions of Luce County (although the more persistent echoes
have remained east toward the Soo). Lake surface to 850 mb delta-Ts
of ~17C continue to be favorable for these lake effect processes,
although inversion heights limited to 5kft and the convective layer
well below the dendritic growth zone will continue to limit any
accumulations to a nuisance at most. This pattern will continue
into tonight before the ridge expands over the east tomorrow,
although some stubborn lake effect clouds may linger over the
east. High confidence that precipitation associated with a
strong, compact shortwave ejecting out of the intermountain west
will remain to our south on Tuesday, with the ridge of high
pressure gradually shifting east on Wednesday as midlevel flow
becomes more zonal.

Wednesday night into Thursday, a northern stream trough will dig
from the Canadian Prairies into the upper Great Lakes. Warm
advection and DCVA is likely to force a band of mainly rain showers
from possibly late Wednesday night into Thursday, although there is
still uncertainty with the timing. If showers can work their way in
as early as late Wednesday night, a few patches of freezing rain (or
more likely, freezing drizzle, based on low-level saturation below a
midlevel dry layer on some forecast soundings) cannot be ruled out
before strong warm advection brings everyone above freezing on
Thursday. The chance of this appears to be only 20-30% at the moment
so not worth messaging at this time, but will continue to monitor.
Otherwise, the bulk of the shower activity should be during the day
Thursday along/ahead of the system`s cold front, with the
postfrontal airmass likely just cold enough to support light lake
effect snow showers over the east Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1224 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

SKC skies and light/nearly calm winds hold thanks to ridging today.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 222 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

Encroaching high pressure has already ended gales across Lake
Superior, though northwest wind gusts will remain above 25 kt until
the mid morning hours today. Wind gusts fall below 20 kt
overnight tonight into Tuesday. Significant wave heights this
morning will fall to 4-7 ft for the east half (less in the west)
and below 4 ft overnight tonight into Tuesday lakewide. High
pressure will then keep wind gusts sub-20 kt until at least the
late-week period. Then, attention turns to multiple potential
shortwave troughs that could spawn surface low pressure systems.
Confidence is low in the details, but there is a 15-25% chance
that a low pressure feature could be accompanied by gale-force
gusts.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thompson
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...Thompson