976
FXUS63 KMQT 112335
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
735 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a Potential (20-40% chance)for showers and storms
  this afternoon through Wednesday afternoon. Severe storms are
  not expected.

- Temperatures are expected to be seasonably warm to slightly
  above average through Wednesday, before cooling to slightly
  below average through the weekend.

- Dry weather Thursday and Friday ahead of the next chances for
  more widespread rain this weekend (around 60% chance).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Broad northwesterly flow aloft continues this afternoon thanks to
the positioning of a closed low over Hudson Bay and large scale
ridging over south-central CONUS. Small scale fluctuations in the
generally northwestern flow could provide the impetus for scattered
showers and potentially a thunderstorm or two this afternoon and
evening. Agreement among the CAMs has improved somewhat on timing
and extent of showers for this afternoon.HREF SBCAPE forecasts for
this afternoon keep max values at or below 1500 J/kg, while the
ensemble means remain around 500 J/kg and the ensemble minimum keeps
SBCAPE at 0 J/kg across the CWA. Shear remains weak and
unidirectional. Thus, while SBCAPE may be sufficient to support a
couple of strong thunderstorms this afternoon, severe thunderstorms
are not expected. HREF chances for showers producing at least a
tenth of an inch of rain within 25 km of any point range from 20-40%
this afternoon and evening.The upper level pattern remains largely
the same throughout Wednesday afternoon, indicating that the
potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms remains in the
forecast for tomorrow.

A broad 500mb ridging pattern is expected to move over eastern CONUS
Wednesday night into Thursday morning,indicating increasing surface
pressure and dry conditions Thursday and Friday. During the same
period, a trough currently located over Seattle and Vancouver is
likely to progress eastward over Canada and northern CONUS.
Uncertainty remains regarding the precise timing, track, and depth
of the trough, and thus its impacts for weekend conditions. At this
time, the highest chances (up to around 60%) for precipitation are
expected to occur between Saturday morning and Sunday morning,
although given the uncertainty with trough timing and depth, the
location, timing, and amount of precipitation is subject to change.
Generally northwesterly flow at the 500 mb is likely to resume
Sunday night through Tuesday as ridging returns to central CONUS,
continuing the pattern of weak precipitation patterns over the UP.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 734 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

VFR will be the predominant flight category for the duration of the
TAF period. However, will carry at least MVFR visibilities with some
tempos for IFR in fog formation early tomorrow morning. But, dry air
at the surface and low model agreement decreases confidence in any
conditions below MVFR levels.  Winds will be light and variable.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Mostly calm weather with winds 15 kts or less will be seen over the
area the next few days, save for potentially some showers and
thunderstorms over northern Green Bay and Lake Michigan this evening
and again Wednesday evening (no severe weather expected). However,
as high pressure begins to move out of the Upper Great Lakes on
Friday, we may see some northeasterly winds of 20 to 25 knots over
the far western lake near the Apostles and Duluth by Friday
afternoon as low pressure approaches from the west. While winds
weaken by Friday night, they restrengthen once again by Saturday as
a shortwave low brings what appears to be an occluding front over
the Upper Great Lakes. Thus, expect southeast to southerly winds up
to 20 kts over northern Green Bay and northern Lake MI by Saturday
afternoon, with central Lake Superior potentially seeing southeast
to southerly gusts of 20 to 30 kts, in addition to the showers and
storms moving across the area. Behind the front into Sunday, expect
the winds to weaken, although they may increase up to 20 to 25 knots
from the northwest over Lake Superior again by Sunday afternoon.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LH
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...TAP