738
FXUS63 KMQT 031237
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
737 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm temperatures through Wednesday night, between 15
and 25 degrees above seasonal averages.

- Periods of widespread rain are expected through mid-week with
rainfall totals topping off in the 1 to 2" range over a 48 hour
period.

- Lake enhanced to lake effect rain showers expected to continue over
the north to northwest wind belts late this work week. Temperatures
closer to normal return late this week.

- There is up to a 75% chance for low-end gales over central Lake
Superior on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 409 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

The pattern progression in the short term is a complex transition of
deep, split-stream troughing over the Plains with embedded shortwaves
which becomes a closed low centered over southern MN by Wednesday.
At the sfc, a low pressure over MN lifts northeast over western Lake
Superior today, followed by a CO low lifting toward the northwest
MN/WI state line by Wednesday morning where it phases with remnant
low pressure. From there the models begin to struggle resolving the
closed low and resulting progression of the sfc low, but the general
consensus is the mid level ridge over the northern Rockies
eventually shifts this eastward as it opens up on Thursday. This
trough lingers over the Great Lakes through Saturday before quickly
being followed up by a shortwave from the Canadian Prairie.

A dry slot reaching over the west yields a lull in the showers this
morning, isolated to scattered shower coverage in the east lingers
behind the low lifting northeast over western Lake MI. But, an
embedded shortwave kicks off another round of showers early this
afternoon. Then lingering weaker low pressure over MN is further
reinforced tonight as a CO low lifts into the region. As this low
meanders through Wisconsin tomorrow, it will keep the U.P. in the
warm sector, thus resulting in another day of unseasonably high
temperatures in the 60s. Simultaneously, on-and-off rain showers
will persist through mid-week with highest rainfall chances
concentrated in the Wed 06-18Z time frame. Initially, highest
rainfall amounts up to 0.50" will be focused over the southern
portions of the U.P., but as this expands northward into the
Keweenaw, widespread rain totals of 1 to 2" will be likely over both
that southern sector and northern Keweenaw. In addition, with some
weak instability, a few rumbles of thunder also cannot be ruled out.
Due to the lingering drought, though, a flood threat is not
anticipated.

As the aforementioned low continues its eastward track through the
end of the week, model guidance continues to hint at a split with
the northerly low going into northern Quebec and the remnant low
remaining over the Great Lakes. This remnant low will be responsible
for lake enhanced and eventually pure lake effect precipitation over
the north to northeast wind belts early Thursday into early Friday.
And, although precipitation will mainly be in the form of rain,
there could start to be a mix with some snowfall for the first time
this season in the trailing CAA. Further out, drier weather will
return for the weekend as high pressure strengthens over the area,
and once again there will be a slight warmup into the 50s after a
brief dip into the 40s for daytime highs on Friday. However,
significant nighttime radiational cooling will allow overnight lows
to drop into the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 737 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Poor flying conditions continue due to low pressure system centered
over northeast MN. Despite a lull in rain showers this morning in a
dry slot, LIFR conditions are still prevailing at SAW and will
persist for most of the TAF period. At best, IFR will be the
most improvement at SAW for this TAF period. Elsewhere, VFR/MVFR
are briefly prevailing at CMX and IWD, respectively. But those,
too, are going to be short-lived as rain intensifies later
today with another wave. Look for gradual deterioration to
MVFR/IFR through early afternoon, then predominantly LIFR at
those sites as well by late afternoon/evening. And, even
wouldn`t rule out VLIFR cigs by tonight. Meanwhile, winds will
generally be southerly with 20 to 25 kt gusts at SAW by late
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 523 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Lake Superior: Southerly wind gusts of 25-30 kt continue this
morning across the eastern half of the lake along with 4-6 foot
waves as a Colorado low progresses toward the region from the
Northern Plains then stalls out. Meanwhile, long-duration
precipitation through Wednesday (with a lull this morning) is
anticipated across Lake Superior. A few weak thunderstorms and
heavier rainfall may also occur during this time.

Tonight, northeasterly winds remain elevated across the western
third of the lake with gusts of 25-30 kts and waves of 5-7 feet as
part of the low splits and transits northeast across Lake Superior.
Wind direction remains southerly over the eastern lake, and variable
over the western lake during this time. Late Wednesday, the stronger
(second) low center transits directly over Lake Superior, causing a
distinct wind shift from southerly to northerly throughout Thursday.
Elevated winds kick in behind this low, with sustained northerlies
to 25-30 kts and gusts to 40 kt. The highest winds are anticipated
over the western central lake Thursday, and then over the eastern
central lake into Friday. Waves in the southern part of Lake
Superior are predicted to 12 feet. Winds diminish to below gale-
force gusts Friday morning and to less than 10 kts sustained by
Friday night as ridging builds in.

Northern Lake Michigan and northern Bay of Green Bay: Southerlies
remain at 15-20 kt sustained with gusts to 25-30 kt as a warm front
pushes in. Waves build to 5-10 feet in the northern Bay of Green Bay
this morning. This system also brings rain showers and a few
thunderstorms to the Bay of Green Bay through the middle of this
week. Sustained winds at 10-20 kt and gusts to 25 kt linger with
waves 3-6 ft through Wednesday, with a brief lull (gusts less than
20 kt) tonight. Southerlies lay down to less than 15 kt Thursday
morning prior to veering northerly with the onset of CAA. Winds
quickly increase to 20 kt sustained and gusts to 25 kt Thursday
night, while waves increase to 4 ft by Friday morning. Elevated
winds remain until diminishing Friday overnight as high pressure and
light winds move in for the weekend.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...77/TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...RE/TDUD