718
FXUS63 KMQT 111139
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
639 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain and/or snow moves into the forecast area today.
  Lake effect rain and snow showers are expected afterwards
  into Thursday. No impacts are expected.

- Warmer temperatures will result in daytime snow melt, which
  will refreeze overnight. Ice or black ice may result in
  hazardous roadways during the morning commutes Wednesday and
  Thursday morning.

- Northwest winds near 40 mph are possible near Lake Superior
  and in the Keweenaw Wednesday.

- A Gale Warning is in effect for much of Lake Superior tonight through
  Wednesday for potential of 34-40 knots.

- A gradual warm up to above normal temperatures is expected by
  this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Upper Michigan finds itself under mid-level ridging building across
the region ahead of a weakly forced shortwave pressing through
Minnesota and western Ontario. Radar returns in Minnesota within
this region of isentropic ascent have only yielded a single
observation of precip reaching the surface thanks to dry low levels.
Ahead of this region over Upper Michigan, ridging has resulted in
diminishing lake effect snow showers. Current shower activity is
limited to isolated showers moving into Luce County. Temperatures
have been observed mostly in the 20s, save for low 30s by Lake
Superior and in the Keweenaw.

An outgoing upper level low will continue digging eastward into the
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast today while upstream mid to upper level
ridging holds across western CONUS. This positions the forecast area
largely in northwest flow aloft and under the influence of any waves
dropping southeast through Canada or the Northern Plains through
Thursday when the next wave presses into the west coast, resulting
in the downstream ridging to begin migrating eastward into the
middle North America. Today, the upstream wave extending northward
through Minnesota will continue to dive southeast. As mentioned
earlier though, moisture will be the main limitation for any
significant precipitation this morning along the surface trough. As
the day progresses, the shortwave will approach from the northwest
which will provide additional forcing to overcome the dry low levels
across the east. This should result in light rain or snow showers by
afternoon, mainly east of Munising. Snow accumulations are not
expected given daytime temperatures climbing into the upper 30s to
low 40s in the east. Elsewhere, mid 30s to low 40s are expected.

Cold air advection behind the surface trough will bring 850mb temps
down to around -6C. With Lake Superior surface temps still running
from +6 to +9C per GLERL analysis, another lake effect episode is
expected to develop into Thursday. Model soundings show inversion
heights climbing to near 7k feet, but barely dig into the DGZ.
Additionally, drier low levels and low level wind shear should limit
snow accumulations in this episode. Tonight any snow should amount
to half an inch or less and be limited to mainly the higher terrain
of the Gogebic Range and Michigamme Highlands and the snow belts
east of Seney. Wednesday into Thursday, any precip during daytime
hours should transition to light rain given temperatures warming
into the upper 30s to mid 40s. Shower activity will also diminish in
the west by late Wednesday, then diminish late Thursday in the east,
thanks to increasing ridging slowly building into the region. The
tighter pressure gradient and cold air advection over the area
tonight and Wednesday will also result in breezy northwest winds,
especially near Lake Superior and in the Keweenaw where 35 to 40 mph
gusts could be common. Some guidance does suggest 40+ mph potential
in the Keweenaw Wednesday. Elsewhere Wednesday, gusts of 20-30mph
should be expected.

Surface high will keep the region dry Friday. Warm air advection
will also continue the warming trend, and the forecast area should
warm into the mid to upper 40s. The same applies to Saturday,
although slightly warmer conditions are expected under southerly
flow. Next shot for precip begins sometime Saturday or Saturday
night and could persist through the weekend as the associated trough
moves slowly from the Northern Plains through the Great Lakes.

Temperatures are anticipated to warm above freezing this week, then
fall below freezing overnight. Any snow that melts during the day
will refreeze overnight. This may result in ice or black ice on
roadways, which could impact the morning commutes Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 639 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

VFR conditions are observed at all TAF sites this morning. Ceiling
heights will begin to descend today to low-end VFR with CMX being
the first to descend into MVFR ceilings this evening as a lake
effect regime sets up once again. With WSW winds forecast, IWD and
SAW are only 25-40 percent likely to see showers while CMX is up to
70 percent likely to see showers overnight. With a warmer airmass
than earlier in the week, these showers will fall as either -SHRASN
or all -SHRA. CMX is 50-60% likely to have a period of IFR
conditions overnight while IWD and SAW are only 30-40 percent likely
to descend into IFR. Some recovery is possible around 12Z Wednesday,
but more likely will occur after the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 225 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Light winds have been observed across Lake Superior tonight save for
southwest gusts approaching 20kts across parts of western Lake
Superior. Southerly to southwesterly flow will establish itself
lake-wide today and increase to 20-30kts ahead of a surface
trough/cold front moving through the region. Cold air advection and
a tighter pressure gradient will follow, which will result in
westerly becoming northwesterly winds increasing to low end gales
tonight through Wednesday. Main areas where these gales are likely
are around the Keweenaw, but ensemble guidance suggests potential
exists for most locations in central and eastern Lake Superior.
Opted to upgrade the inherited watch to a Gale Warning with this
forecast package. Latest WW3 continues to suggest significant waves
over the west half climbing to 4-8 ft and 8-14 ft over the east
(highest north of Grand Marais, MI).

Winds are expected to settle below gale late tonight, but suspect
gale force gusts could continue into Thursday afternoon north and
east of the Keweenaw. Thursday evening, winds look to return below
20kts lake-wide and remain there into Friday afternoon. From there,
southeasterly flow becoming southerly under increasing gradient
forces late Friday into Saturday will result in winds climbing to 20-
30kts ahead of the next system. Potential exists for this warm air
advection pattern to reach gales north and east of the Keweenaw
given the modeled 35-40kt 925mb LLJ, but latest NBM and EC ensemble
currently pings potential at 20-40%, at least until Saturday
night/Sunday. At that point, northwest flow could gradually develop
behind the departing system alongside a slug of stronger cold air
advection. Should this occur, gales would be favored Sunday into
Monday.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning from 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ to 7 PM EST /6 PM
     CST/ Wednesday for LSZ241-242-263.

  Gale Warning from 1 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday for
     LSZ243>251-264>267.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JTP
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...JTP