545
FXUS63 KMQT 161846
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
246 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances continue this afternoon and evening with a few
  rumbles of thunder, but no severe weather really expected
  (very small/5% chance for southern Menominee County this
  afternoon to early evening).

- Unseasonably cool today with highs around or below 60 for the
  north/west half of the U.P. today.

- Normal to below normal temperatures continue through this
  weekend, with highs generally being in the 60s to 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Satellite imagery showing a low lifting through the Upper
Mississippi just south of La Crosse, Wisconsin this afternoon has
brought patchy fog and drizzle to the area this morning into this
afternoon. As the low continues through the Lower Peninsula later
tonight, expect showers and potentially a few weak embedded
thunderstorms to roll through the U.P. the rest of this afternoon
through tonight. While there is still a small (5 to 14%) chance that
we could see marginally severe winds in southern Menominee County
late this afternoon into this evening, it`s most likely that strong
storms will be avoided over there, especially now that the
convective complex has formed over southern Wisconsin. As we now are
in the cool sector of the low, temperatures have been unseasonable
today, with the high at the office having occurred around midnight
as temperatures are currently around 50 degrees as of the time of
this writing. With cloud cover remaining overhead and cold air
advection continuing to flow-in from the north to northeast today
into Thursday, expect the temperatures to either remain steady or
slowly decrease with time across the area this afternoon. Thus the
rest of today into tonight might feel more like a Spring or early
Fall day more than your typical Summer day.

As the low continues eastwards across the Lower Peninsula through
Lake Huron late tonight, expect the showers (and few embedded
thunderstorms) to end from west to east. While we could see some
training of showers and storms this evening through tonight, being
in the cool sector of the low, there won`t be as much moisture or
energy in the atmosphere to work with. Instead, most of the rainfall
the rest of this afternoon through tonight will be light to
occasionally moderate, with a few outliers potentially being heavy
here and there. Supporting this thought is the latest HREF 24 hour
QPF LPMM, which shows an isolated spot or two receiving over an inch
or liquid; besides those isolated spots, though, most of the
rainfall is expected to be only a few tenths to potentially even a
few hundreths across the area. Therefore, while the saturated soils
across the northwestern U.P. could set us up for some flooding
concerns, given the lack of energy and unimpressive moisture over
us, flooding and flash flooding concerns are not expected (only
around a 5% chance) given the light rain expected over most of the
area the rest of this afternoon through tonight.

The last of the rain showers leaves our area Thursday morning to our
east as a weakening omega block moves in from the Northern Plains.
While sunny skies will help warm the sfc, with Canadian air still
remaining overhead, expect high temperatures to only get into the
60s to maybe around 70 in a few of the interior spots. In addition,
the northerly flow is projected to lighten as the high pressure
block moves in throughout the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Normal to below normal temperatures appear to dominate the rest of
this week into early next week as a weakening omega block gives way
to a low pressure system, before another omega block rolls through
early next week. While this should lead to a more active pattern in
regards to differences between sun and showers, we appear to not
have much interaction with the Gulf airmass (thus producing
temperatures around to below normal). Overall, expect high
temperatures in the 60s and 70s this weekend into early next week.

With the low pressure system moving through around the Saturday time
period, we could see some showers and storms across the area. While
medium range guidance does show strong bulk shear, with little CAPE
predicted, severe weather is not expected at this time with the
low`s passage. While the NBM is showing shower and storm chances
early next week, I`m doubtful for these given the omega block
pattern expected overhead. However, confidence in precipitation
returning increases as we head into the middle of next week as
another low pressure system could impact us from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1257 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

As a low continues from the Upper Mississippi through the Lower
Peninsula the rest of this afternoon through tonight, expect
terminal conditions to remain in the tank (LIFR to IFR) as patchy FG
and DZ/BR remain across the area, with -SHRA seen across the TAF
sites from time to time. While thunderstorms aren`t necessarily
expected due to the area being in the cool-sector of the low, there
is up to around 20% chance of thunder by SAW late this afternoon
into this evening (highest amongst the TAF sites). As the low leaves
the region and high pressure builds in from the west Thursday
morning, expect the skies to finally clear out near the end of the
period.

Generally breezy northerly to northeasterly flow dominates the
terminals this TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Northeast to northerly winds of 20 to 25 knots across the lake this
afternoon dwindles to 20 knots or less over the western half this
evening as a low (currently over the Upper Mississippi Valley as of
the time of this writing) moves through the Lower Peninsula and Lake
Huron late tonight. As this occurs, expect the winds to slowly back
to the north tonight over the eastern lake, before dropping down to
20 knots or less by Thursday afternoon. Expect light winds of 20
knots or less to continue across Lake Superior the rest of this week
through this weekend as an omega block of high pressure moves
through before a low pressure moves through the Upper Great Lakes
this weekend; outside of the rogue thunderstorm chances along the
southern shoreline the rest of today through tonight (20% chance or
less), the next shot for thunderstorms will be associated with this
low pressure system. Another omega block looks to move overhead as
we head into early next week.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     MIZ005-006.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...TAP