195
FXUS63 KMQT 040535
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
135 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some light lake effect rain/drizzle showers are possible over
  mainly the eastern U.P. tonight into Monday morning. Expect
  rainfall accumulations to be not much more than a trace.

- Gusty winds are expected today behind the Clipper low. Gales
  up to 35 knots are expected over eastern Lake Superior, and
  northwest gusts up to 40 mph are possible in the Keweenaw and
  along the Lake Superior shoreline east of Marquette.

- Could see some light rain showers mainly over the eastern U.P.
  Tuesday through Wednesday as well as gusty winds once again
  over the Keweenaw and eastern U.P.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Radar imagery shows light rainfall moving through the area in
conjunction with a Clipper lifting from the north shore of Lake
Superior towards James Bay. Radar imagery is also showing drier air
working its way over the west early this morning, with the synoptic
rainfall ceasing from west to east mainly before dawn this morning.
CAA working into the region behind the synoptic precipitation is
looking to bring gusty northwest winds to the Keweenaw and along
Lake Superior east of Marquette today as the cooler but drier air
generally keeps the area under mostly sunny skies save for maybe
some scattered lake enhanced/effect clouds over the east. While the
clear skies will allow for uninhibited solar radiation to reach the
sfc, with 850mb temperatures around 1 to 4C expect highs to be
limited to the mid 50s to lower 60s (warmest in the south central).
With a reinforcing shot of CAA coming in tonight, expect light lake
effect rain/drizzle showers to pick up over the eastern U.P.,
continuing until Monday as high pressure ridging approaches and
eventually passes over the area late in the day; expect the rainfall
accumulations over the eastern U.P. tonight through Monday to be on
the order of nothing more than a few hundreths of an inch. Expect
fairly similar conditions on Monday as compared to today, save for
the sfc being a touch drier and temperatures maybe a degree or two
more moderated on the high and low ends during the daytime.

After the high pressure ridging moves through late on Monday,
another Clipper low phases with a low pressure from northern Canada
before digging towards the Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday. While there
is still some disagreement on how far the phasing low will dig
before lifting over northern Ontario Tuesday night, rain chances
have subsequently increased over the last 24 hours as guidance does
now suggest enough forcing to at least accomplish some light
rainfall. That being said, with some dry air at around 850-700 mb
needing to be overcome, expect rainfall amounts to be rather light
in the warm sector of the low, with current rain chances still
limited to around 10 to 25% with the highest chances in the eastern
UP. As subtle CAA works into the area Tuesday night through
Wednesday, we could see a return of light lake effect rain/drizzle
showers over the northwest wind belts, mainly over the eastern Yoop.
In addition, expect gusty southerly winds in the warm sector on
Tuesday up to 30 to 35 mph at times by the afternoon hours, highest
over the east half, and west to northwest winds of 25 to 30 mph over
the Keweenaw and along the Lake Superior shoreline east of Marquette
again on Wednesday. With rain chances increasing, the fire weather
concerns have dwindled in comparison to yesterday. Nevertheless,
fire weather partners should keep an eye on the winds and RHs as the
areas near Wisconsin could be drier than currently anticipated.
While drier weather could be seen via sfc ridging overhead for the
latter portion of the work week, additional rainfall could be seen
by next weekend as a potentially robust Clipper low forms and moves
through the Northern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 115 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

VFR conditions continue to prevail, but confidence is low in them
staying there as rain showers linger with a Clipper system in the
area. Therefore, will continue to trend toward MVFR/IFR with TEMPOs
and prevailing through at least Sun 12Z, improving to MVFR/VFR
through Sun 15Z. At that point, VFR should be the predominant flight
category again. Meanwhile, strong southerly winds will veer to the
northwest this morning with gusts up to 25 kts at IWD and SAW and as
high as 30 kts at CMX.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Lake Superior: The last of the southerly winds over the eastern lake
early this morning turn northwesterly by the mid-morning hours as
gales up to 35 kts develop/continue over the eastern half of the
lake through the day today. While another round of subtle CAA could
continue a few gale force gusts up to 35 kts over the eastern lake
this evening, expect a slow general decrease tonight into Monday
morning, with winds dropping to 20 kts or less across the lake by
Monday afternoon as high pressure ridging moves overhead late
Monday. That being said, don`t expect the calmer conditions to last
all that long, as another low from Canada digs towards the Upper
Great Lakes on Tuesday. Therefore, expect winds to once again pick
up from the south throughout the day across Lake Superior, reaching
speeds of 20 to 30 kts over the entire lake with a few gale force
gusts up to 35 kts possible over the eastern lake. As the cold
sector of the low moves in Tuesday night into Wednesday, expect the
winds to weaken slightly to 20 to 30 kts from the west Tuesday night
before having a slight uptick from the northwest on Wednesday (gale
chances around 20 to 40% in the cold sector on Wednesday, highest
over the eastern lake). As sfc ridging slowly returns for the latter
portion of the work week, expect the winds to progressively weaken
with time Wednesday night through Thursday, eventually dropping to
20 kts or less again by Thursday night.

Northern Green Bay and northwestern Lake Michigan: Southwest winds
of 25 to 30 kts early this morning wane as they veer west and
eventually northwest to 20 to 25 kts later this morning into this
afternoon. While reinforcing CAA from Canada will keep northwest
winds elevated to 15 to 20 kts tonight, expect incoming high
pressure ridging to return calmer winds of 15 kts or less to the
area by late Monday. That being said, don`t expect the calmer winds
to last all that long as another low from Canada approaches the
Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday. This low is projected to increase
winds from the south and southwest throughout the pre-dawn and
daytime hours, with gusts of 30 kts to potentially even gales of 35
kts (up to 40% chance) possible by the afternoon hours. Once the
cold sector of the low starts to come into the region by Tuesday
evening though, expect the winds to die down closer to 15 kts while
veering with time. However, another subtle shot of CAA could bring
west to northwest winds of 15 to 20 kts back over the region on
Wednesday before dropping down to 15 kts or less again by Wednesday
evening as high pressure ridging begins to approach from the west.
While west-northwest winds may gust up to 15 to 20 kts once again
during the day on Thursday, expect calmer winds of 15 kts or less
again come Thursday night.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening
     for LSZ248-251-265-267.

  Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ249-250-266.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...TAP