824
FXUS63 KMQT 161657
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1257 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances continue today with a few rumbles of thunder, but no
severe weather expected for most. The key exception is Menominee,
which has a 10-20% chance of seeing strong to severe thunderstorms
this evening.

- Unseasonably cool today with highs around or below 60 for the
north/west half of the UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 429 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Early morning KMQT radar returns show only remnant showers over Lake
Superior at the moment, a significantly calmer environment than the
previous evening. RAP analysis still shows surface troughing of
about 1010mb still present draped from Sault Ste Marie to Green Bay,
though the source of further disturbed weather looks to be upstream
at 500mb, where a shortwave trough is currently transiting Iowa with
minor shortwave impulses ahead of it. CAMs show these impulses to be
just strong enough to force some scattered showers with perhaps some
embedded thunderstorms, but with the UP in the cold sector of the
trough, instability is significantly limited (generally sub-100 J/kg
SBCAPE in the HREF), so severe weather is not expected this morning.
Should a few of these storms line up and train, rainfall rates of up
to an inch/6hr are possible in a worst-case setup per the HREF LPMM,
though the most likely QPF forecast for this morning is around a
tenth of an inch prior to noon. While that is not an overwhelming
amount of precipitation, MRMS Radar-only QPE estimates some
locations in the UP got over 5 inches of rain last night, so the
ground is going to be pretty saturated in spots.

With cool northerly flow, high temperatures will really struggle to
break out of the mid-50s, with the NBM showing high temperatures of
60 degrees or less north of a line from Gwinn/Sawyer to Watersmeet,
though the far east and south UP will still see highs in the low
70s. As the aforementioned parent trough pivots through Wisconsin in
the afternoon and evening hours, another round of showers with a few
rumbles of thunder are expected, though for most, it will be a
similar setup as described above. However, one notable exception is
the immediate vicinity of Menominee, which is far enough south that
it may be on the northern periphery of a MCV evident on most CAMs.
Should this MCV prefer the northern track of guidance such as the
NAM Nest and HRRR, Menominee may see a severe thunderstorm out of
this with damaging winds being the primary threat, however, chances
of that scenario unfolding are about 10-20 percent. With the trough
moving out, chances of rain begin to cease in the west around 12Z
Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 429 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Thursday will remain on the cool side with highs reaching the upper
60s to low 70s, coolest in the west-central. As the parent trough
and embedded shortwaves passing through the western Great Lakes
depart east Thursday afternoon dry weather will finally return to
the region, keeping things quiet and seasonable through Friday. A
transient shortwave within the broad zonal flow aloft may touch off
some showers on Saturday before quiet/dry conditions return Sunday
into early next week. From there, deterministic guidance varies on
the timing and strength of additional shortwaves traversing the
Upper Midwest. Long range ensembles point towards positive height
anomalies building in the eastern CONUS while slightly negative
anoms fall in the PNW / northern Rockies, leaving the Upper Great
Lakes in a favored position for passing shortwaves and active
weather through mid-late July.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1257 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

As a low continues from the Upper Mississippi through the Lower
Peninsula the rest of this afternoon through tonight, expect
terminal conditions to remain in the tank (LIFR to IFR) as patchy FG
and DZ/BR remain across the area, with -SHRA seen across the TAF
sites from time to time. While thunderstorms aren`t necessarily
expected due to the area being in the cool-sector of the low, there
is up to around 20% chance of thunder by SAW late this afternoon
into this evening (highest amongst the TAF sites). As the low leaves
the region and high pressure builds in from the west Thursday
morning, expect the skies to finally clear out near the end of the
period.

Generally breezy northerly to northeasterly flow dominates the
terminals this TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Winds will shift northerly tonight as the cold front pushes south
over Lake Superior and stalls over northern Wisconsin. With the
stalled front in place periods of showers and thunderstorms are
expected through early Thursday morning over Lake Superior. Some of
the thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight could produce damaging
winds and large hail. Northeast winds gusting to 25kts will develop
over western Lake Superior tonight, with gusts to 20kts central and
east. Areas of fog are possible this evening and overnight with rain
falling into a moist marine airmass. Any fog that forms should
diminish on Wednesday as drier air filters into the Upper Great
Lakes. The northerly flow should help clear out much of the wildfire
smoke tonight and Wednesday. Winds will become light Wednesday night
through the weekend.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     MIZ005-006.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GS
LONG TERM...BW/GS
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...NL