890
FXUS63 KMQT 282313
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
713 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few lake-breeze driven showers and thunderstorms are possible
(15% chance) in the central UP tomorrow. More widespread chances for
showers and thunderstorms return for Thursday through Saturday (30-
60% chance).

- Patchy dense fog is possible tonight, mainly near the western UP
lakeshores and Keweenaw.

- Seasonably warm temperatures 80s dominate this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Early afternoon GOES satellite imagery reveals clear skies across da
Yoop save for retreating areas of stratus/fog hugging the western
lakeshores and floating in the open waters east of the Apostles.
Patchy fog may linger overnight but isn`t expected to penetrate
inland overnight. Temps fall into the 50s tonight under calm
winds. Building high pressure will keep largely quiet weather in
check for another day, however, lake breeze driven showers and
storms may be seen across the central UP`s golden triangle
tomorrow afternoon/evening where lake breezes off of Lake
Superior and Michigan collide. Confidence in this scenario is
low given dry air seen in area bufkit soundings, but meager
elevated instability and enough forcing from the lake breezes
may be enough to kick off some precip. Have added low end PoPs
(15% chance) in the afternoon/evening for this possibility. The
flattening out of the persistent upper level ridge and
reintroduction of zonal flow aloft will allow shortwave activity
to translate into the Great Lakes later this week into the
coming weekend. PoPs increase Thursday ahead of a shortwave
rounding into the Upper Midwest. Additionally, dewpoints in the
upper 60s return Thursday, making for a muggy evening with
apparent temps pushing the upper 80s to low 90s. A weak cold
front then pushes through late Thursday through early Friday,
bringing another potential round of showers and thunderstorms
into the weekend. While sufficient instability will be present
for thunderstorms, bulk shear appears to be lacking to yield
severe weather potential at this time. Quieter and warm
conditions return for early next week as ridging once again
returns to the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 713 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for the duration of the TAF period.
Exception will be any fog formation late tonight, but confidence is
not high enough to insert mention at this time. Expect light and
variable winds overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 128 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

High pressure ridging building in allows for winds to largely remain
below 20 kts lakewide, save for gusts ~20 kts at Whitefish Bay this
evening where channeling is expected. This weak surface pattern the
rest of the forecast package supports winds remaining below 20 kts
until early next week.

Transient marine dense fog remains the primary short term hazard.
Dense Fog Advisories have been allowed to carry through this evening
in the western half of the lake as satellite imagery reveals fog
still hugging the lakeshores of the western UP. Since fog is not
actively covering large areas of the open water zones, will let the
evening and overnight forecasters assess weather fog headlines need
to continue.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Dense Fog Advisory until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Wednesday for
     LSZ240>244.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...BW