588
FXUS63 KMQT 271134
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
734 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy, locally dense fog over the central and eastern UP this
morning. More fog possible over the west tonight.

- High temperatures remain slightly slightly above average in the
upper 60s to low 70s through the first half of the coming week.

- A few rain showers may graze the western UP this morning, but
chances for more widespread rainfall hold off until Tuesday into
Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

An omega-like blocking pattern remains in place this morning, with
the axis of the upper level ridge centered directly over the UP
between deep troughing centered over western Canada and the Mid
Atlantic. Water vapor imagery reveals a weak disturbance riding up
the western periphery of the ridge, bringing extensive cloud cover
over the western half of Lake Superior and the western third of the
UP. A few radar echos are noted over western Superior into the MN
Arrowhead. Farther east where skies remain clearer, patchy fog is
developing across parts of the central and eastern UP, becoming
locally dense in a few spots. A few rain showers will clip the far
western UP later this morning, but guidance continues to keep any
measurable precipitation minimal and confined to Gogebic and
Ontonagon Counties, with a around a 25% chance for as much of a
tenth of an inch around Ironwood today. Several CAMs seem rather
bullish on these showers making farther east into the central UP
this afternoon, but there will be quite a bit of mid level dry air
to contend with and, as such, have opted to keep the forecast
completely dry for all but the far western UP today. Thus expect
another day of highs in the upper 60s to low 70s under partly cloudy
skies. Minimum RH values could dip into the low 40s or even as low
as the mid 30s across parts of the central and eastern UP this
afternoon, but light winds will keep fire weather concerns limited
as they have been in recent days.

Expect more fog development tonight as skies partially clear out
this evening, aided in the west by any precipitation that falls
today. Monday will then be another seasonably warm and dry day as
high pressure lingers over the Great Lakes, with highs in the low to
perhaps mid 70s in a few spots near the WI border. High pressure
breaks down on Tuesday and paves the way for a more progressive
zonal flow pattern with embedded shortwaves traversing the
region through the rest of the week. The first of these will
impact the UP late Tuesday into Wednesday as low pressure ejects
out of the Plains while a shortwave tracks across northern
Ontario, bringing a period of more widespread rain to the UP.
Latest NBM maintains around a 40% chance for a wetting rain of a
quarter inch across most of the area through Wednesday morning,
closer to 60% across the southcentral UP. Another shortwave
crossing northern Ontario on Thursday will bring potential for
breezy conditions as well as additional rain chances.
Temperatures generally look to remain slightly above average in
the upper 60s to low 70s through the first half of the week
before eventually settling back into the low to mid 60s later in
the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 733 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

A weak shortwave is kicking off a few scattered light rain showers
near IWD this morning but is not expected to push any further east.
Patchy dense LIFR fog may be observed early this morning at SAW
before dissipating with sunrise. Additional fog development is
expected around the end of the TAF period at IWD/CMX. Otherwise
light southerly winds persist around 5 kts until this afternoon when
the shortwave shifts winds westerly. However, a lake breeze may
press northeast winds into SAW instead before calm conditions return
to all sites after sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Winds turn southerly today and remain below 20 kt under high
pressure until Tuesday, when an approaching disturbance will drive
wind gusts out of the south to increase to near 25 kt, highest near
Stannard Rock. Winds eventually turn more westerly or northwesterly
as the pattern changes mid to late week, with cold air advection
driving gustier winds and increased gale chances (40-50% over the
eastern half of Lake Superior) by Thursday. Waves will be highest
for the nearshores of Lake Michigan, where the long-duration and
long-fetch southerlies increase the waves to near 3 ft.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...CB/GS