971
FXUS63 KMQT 170723
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
323 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms leave the far eastern CWA by late this morning.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances return late tonight/Wednesday
  into Wednesday night, mainly for the central and eastern
  thirds of Upper Michigan. Scattered showers/storms expected
  Thursday across Upper Michigan.

- Near normal temperatures this week trend above normal by late
  this coming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 322 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Satellite and radar imagery shows isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms trudging eastward over the U.P. early this morning as
the center of a lifting shortwave moves through the west half of
Lake Superior. In addition, a secondary sfc shortwave appears to be
firing convection over Wisconsin as of the time of this writing.
Because of this, thinking rain amounts and chances over the U.P. the
rest of this morning will be lower than previously anticipated (as
highlighted by the previous evening update), with rain chances now
being 50% or less as the shortwaves continue east today. Judging by
the latest runs of the CAMs, it seems that the last of the rain
showers will leave our area (CWA) by late this morning to our far
east; while some lightning may be seen, with weakening forcing and
diminishing energy aloft, no severe weather is expected today.

Behind the shortwaves, expect the cloud cover to clear out a bit
during the daylight hours; this will allow us to have temperatures
get up to the 70s across the area, with the south central possibly
getting up to 80 or higher. While gusty west to northwest winds are
expected behind the shortwaves today (mainly this morning), as weak
ridging begins to develop overhead this afternoon, expect the wind
speeds to die down throughout the day. Given that conditions today
are expected to be somewhat muggy again (min RHs are expected to
stay around 50% or higher), no fire weather concerns are expected.

Our next system looks to potentially impact us either tonight and/or
Wednesday as a shortwave low currently lifting off of the Colorado
Rockies lifts into the Upper Midwest late tonight through Wednesday.
It seems that the most recent model tracks have the shortwave going
a little further southeast than previously expected, with the
Canadian suite of guidance showing the shortwave completely missing
us (however, it does show some diurnal showers and storms developing
along the lake breezes by the afternoon); currently, it looks like
the European and NAM suite are the most generous with the
precipitation amounts late tonight through Wednesday, with rainfall
mainly occurring over the central and east. While a stray light
shower or two is possible near Menominee during the overnight hours,
it seems like rain chances have been pushed back a little so that
now it looks like the rain won`t be coming in until early Wednesday
morning (should it even occur). Therefore, mostly capped rain
chances at around 50% or less for the central and east for
Wednesday, with the west generally at 20% or less. Given that
guidance has us under the northern tier of the shortwave, no severe
weather is expected, although thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled
out as high temperatures on Wednesday could still get into the 70s
across the area, even despite the higher chance for cloudier skies
compared to this coming afternoon. Will need to keep an eye on
rainfall amounts for the south central and east with this system, as
the European ensemble does have some outliers showing significant
QPF over these areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 322 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

A cold front is expected to press southeastward, moving into the
forecast area on Thursday. This front will swing through Upper
Michigan Thursday afternoon and evening, likely resulting in
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region. Upper level
ridging builds into the Central Plains Friday while a surface high
stretches into the Upper Great Lakes. This largely looks to keep us
dry through the day. However, a ridge roller pressing eastward along
the ridge top will press eastward through the day. Guidance
continues to highlight this pressing into Upper Michigan Friday
evening/early Saturday. Afterwards, the ridge will shift southeast
into the South while a deep trough presses through the Rockies. This
will result in an amplified trough/ridge pattern across CONUS. The
first wave/warm front ejecting out of the trough may move through
the region Sunday.

Temperatures in this forecast period are largely expected to trend
upwards in time, with near normal temperatures becoming above
normal. Expect 60s and 70s to become widespread mid 80s by Sunday.
Overnight lows follow the same pattern, with 40s and 50s becoming
widespread 60s by Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 125 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Spotty showers continue to develop around IWD and CMX tonight,
though the thunderstorm threat has come to an end. Ample lower level
moisture has already brought ceilings down to MVFR at IWD, with
ceilings falling to MVFR at CMX over the next couple of hours and to
IFR into the early moring. Some MVFR/IFR fog will also be possible
at CMX. At SAW, MVFR ceilings settle in Tuesday morning. Low level
jet moving over the area tonight may also support modest LLWS at
SAW. An improvement to VFR is expected at all terminals Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 322 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

West-southwesterly winds gusting 20 to 30 knots through early this
afternoon finally fall below 20 knots late as weak sfc ridging sets
up across the area. At that point, light and variable winds will
prevail into Thursday when gusts in the 15 to 20 knot range return
through the weekend.

Outside of some storms over the eastern half of the lake this
morning, expect Lake Superior to be fairly quiet convection-wise
until this weekend. The marine dense fog is expected to dissipate
later this morning as well.


&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for
     LSZ162-263-264.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...JTP/TAP
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...TAP/TDUD