661
FXUS63 KMQT 011721
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
121 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures drop back into the 60s today and cool to near
  seasonal normal values in the upper 50s to low 60s through the
  weekend. Lows will dip near or below freezing in interior
  parts of the UP for the next few nights.

- Breezy conditions are expected today and Friday as winds shift
  out of the west-northwest behind a cold front. Gusts of 30+
  mph are likely near Lake Superior from the Keweenaw east to
  Whitefish Point.

- Another system passing through the region this weekend brings
  additional rain chances late Saturday into early Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

GOES infrared satellite imagery revels extensive cloud cover
spreading across Upper Michigan early this morning, associated with
a plume of rich mid level moisture which extends northeastward into
the Great Lakes from a deep trough and surface low lifting into the
southern Plains. Precipitation associated with this system remains
well south of the UP this morning over Wisconsin and Lower Michigan.
Meanwhile, another deep low pressure system is located well to the
north over Hudson Bay, with a cold front extending southwestward.
Surface analysis places this feature on the doorstep of Lake
Superior and the western UP as of 3 AM EDT Thursday. Ahead of the
front, overnight temperatures are quite warm across the area given a
persistent weak warm advection regime and insulating cloud cover,
with most locations remaining in the upper 50s to low 60s as of this
writing.

The surface cold front will sweep across the UP later this morning
and bring a quick shift to breezy west-northwest winds in its wake
this afternoon. Daytime highs will struggle to get out of the mid
60s across most of the area today as 850 mb temps plummet from 12-13
C this morning to around 5 C by this afternoon. Can`t rule out a few
rain showers towards Menominee County and the northern shores of
Lake Michigan today, but expect dry weather across most of the UP as
precipitation associated with the southern stream system remains
south of the area. Could see some limited fire weather concerns
develop across interior locations this afternoon as dewpoints mix
out efficiently and yield RH values in the low 30s as winds gust to
15-20 mph. Even breezier conditions are likely near Lake Superior
where guidance still shows a high probability of wind gusts of 30+
mph from the Keweenaw eastward along the shoreline.

Temperatures will be markedly colder tonight as cold advection takes
hold and skies clear behind the departing front. While continued
windy conditions will likely keep lows from truly dropping off the
table, still expect widespread temps in the 30s away from Lake
Superior, potentially reaching freezing in a few of the colder spots
in the interior. Breezy conditions continue into Friday as CAA
regime continues and high pressure building in from the west
provides an isallobaric push. Will likely maintain limited fire
weather concerns into the afternoon as RH values once again drop to
around 30%, though temperatures will be a bit cooler in the 50s.
Will also need to consider some lake effect rain showers in the east
as 850 mb temps drop to around -5 C while lake surface temperatures
continue to reside around 13-16 C. Temperatures really drop off on
Friday night as high pressure moves directly overhead and brings an
end to the breezy conditions, allowing for optimal radiational
cooling. Could see a hard freeze for many interior locations as
temperatures drop into the 20s, with areas near the lakeshores
likely remaining in the mid to upper 30s. Highs rebound slightly
into the low 60s during the day on Saturday. A low passing north of
Lake Superior then brings another chance for widespread rain late
Saturday into Sunday morning, but rain amounts look to be rather
unimpressive again as NBM probs for even a tenth of an inch only
site at 25-35% across most of the area, higher in the far east. High
pressure then returns for the early part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 121 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all sites throughout the TAF period as
skies continue clearing over the UP. Winds will generally be between
northerly and westerly at around 10 kt with gusts around 20 kt. The
biggest exception is at SAW, where the early afternoon will feature
northeasterly winds. By Friday morning, some lake effect clouds will
be over SAW and CMX, lowest at CMX where it gets close to MVFR
thresholds but currently has less than a 1-in-3 chance to fall below
3kft, with cloud bases lifting and cloud coverage scattering for the
early afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Lake Superior: Current south-southwest winds around 15 kt will give
way to stronger westerlies today as a cold front crosses the lake
this morning, producing 20-25 kt winds across much of the lake and a
few gusts to 30 kt from the Keweenaw eastward towards Whitefish
Point. West-northwest winds persist into Friday aided by strong cold
air advection and pressure rises as high pressure builds in from the
west. Gale probabilities have ticked up to 40-50% across the eastern
half on Friday, but will hold at small craft headlines over the
nearshores for the time being. Wave heights build from 3-5 ft this
afternoon to 5-8 ft across the eastern half by Friday. Winds come
down Friday night into early Saturday as high pressure moves
overhead, but another system passing north of the lake brings 15-25
kt southerlies by later in the day on Saturday, with gale chances
increasing again on Sunday in the west-northwesterly cold advection
regime in the wake of the system.

Northern Green Bay and northwestern Lake Michigan: 10-15 kt
southwest winds go northwesterly at 15-20 kt behind a passing cold
front later this afternoon, continuing into Friday. Winds go light as
high pressure arrives Friday night into Saturday morning, but
another system passing to the north brings stronger southerlies
potentially increasing to 20-25 kt with wave heights building to 2-4
ft on Saturday afternoon. Winds shift westerly again at 15-20 kt in
the wake of the system on Sunday.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...CB