289
FXUS63 KMQT 110705
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
305 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather will prevail this weekend with a 50-80% chance of
showers Sunday night into Monday (highest north).

- Temperatures will average slightly warmer than normal through
Monday before becoming more seasonable.

- A period of southerly gales around 35 kt is expected over central
Lake Superior Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Early this morning, moisture continues to wrap around a low centered
just north of Lake Huron, spreading clouds into north-central and
eastern portions of the UP. The clouds are keeping temps mild in the
50s. Meanwhile, high pressure is building over the west, resulting
in clear skies and temperatures falling into the 30s. Today, ridging
continues to build both at the surface and aloft, with 500 mb height
anomalies of +1 to +2 sigma. The big forecast question is how long
the clouds will take to burn off today over the eastern half. The
forecast will show gradual clearing by the afternoon for the north-
central, but parts of the eastern UP may remain mostly cloudy today.
High temps seasonable in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Sunday, the ridge continues to build into southeastern Canada while
being eroded on its western flank by shortwave troughing emanating
from a larger-scale trough encompassing much of the Intermountain
West. A seasonably strong surface low is forecast to develop in
concert with a particularly compact midlevel wave over the northern
Plains and southern Canadian Prairies, which will tighten the
pressure gradient locally and boost temps further into the 60s on
breezy southerly winds. Better lift with this system will remain
further northwest, but a band of showers is expected (50-80% chance;
highest north) along the system`s occluded front on Sunday night
into early Monday.

Good confidence in high pressure providing dry weather for at least
the Tuesday/Wednesday period as temperatures fall back to
seasonal values. Subsident northwesterly midlevel flow gradually
gives way to a narrowing ridge axis toward the end of the week.
Cluster analysis shows the next potential for rainfall tied to
the progression of shortwaves ejecting from more western US
troughing, with wetter solutions locally tied to a more
progressive, open western trough, and drier solutions tied to a
cutoff desert SW low with a building ridge over the northern
Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 124 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Light and variable winds across the terminals this morning become SE
to E later today as weakening high pressure moves into the Upper
Great Lakes. MVFR lake effect cloud cover stays over SAW for much of
the day today, potentially even dropping down to IFR just after dawn
this morning. The lake effect cloud cover could even reform back
over CMX late this morning and bring MVFR cigs back over the
terminal for a few hours (thinking the upslope flow to the terminal
will provide just enough lift to create the BKN MVFR cigs). As the
lake effect cloud cover dwindles away late today, expect all the
terminals to eventually return to VFR by this evening.

While not expected at this time, we could flirt with LLWS criteria
at IWD near midnight this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Winds and waves will continue to decrease today as high pressure
builds in. The high shifts east tonight into Sunday while a strong
low develops over the northern Plains. This will result in
strengthening south-southeast winds and around a 70% likelihood of
gales to 35 knots over north-central portions of the lake Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night. A Gale Watch will be issued for this
potential. Winds shift to westerly in the wake of a front Monday,
with around a 30% chance of gales over the western lake Sunday night
into Monday. Gale headlines are possible if this potential
increases. Winds diminish to less than 20 kt by Tuesday as high
pressure builds in.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thompson
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...Thompson