224
FXUS63 KMQT 020816
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
316 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread southwest wind gusts of 30-40 mph expected over
  much of the area today, especially over the west half,
  Keweenaw, and downsloping locations of the central UP.

- Wind Advisories are currently in effect for Keweenaw, Northern
  Houghton, and Marquette counties where wind gusts up to 45 mph
  are expected.

- Gale force winds are expected across Lake Superior today and
  Monday.

- Temperatures remain near normal today before rebounding
  slightly above normal into the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

Quiet weather currently resides in Upper Michigan underneath a
southward departing ridge axis with mostly clear skies and temps in
the 20s/30s. Lake effect showers have been shunted to the eastern
lake and remain offshore. Active weather in the form of strong SW
winds picks up today as a ~170 kt 300 mb jet streak currently
ripping across western Canada is supporting an already ~992mb
surface low near the Sask/Manitoba border. This seasonably
strong jet and attendant sfc low presses eastward, deepening to
around 986 mb in northern Ontario this evening. As this occurs,
the increased regional pressure gradient and mixing into a stout
40-50 kt LLJ will support widespread southwesterly gusts
between 30-40 mph this afternoon into the evening. Additionally,
model soundings suggest the potential to mix down stronger
gusts between 45-50 mph across the Keweenaw and downsloping
locations of Marquette county. This is supported by NBM and REFS
ensemble probabilities, which both paint a 50-80% chance for
gusts >45 mph. Have opted to include Keweenaw, N Houghton, and
Marquette counties in Wind Advisories today, with Keweenaw and N
Houghton counties continuing through Monday as west winds
remain elevated through Monday evening. Also, with strong SW
winds occuring over Lake Michigan as well, high waves may cause
localized lakeshore flooding in Schoolcraft Co and eastward.

Cold front associated with the Manitoba/Ontario low will swing west
to east through the forecast area tonight. Pre-frontal rain can`t be
ruled out, mainly over Lake Superior, but the best chances for rain
come with the cold front across the east half as the nose of the jet
streak inches into the Upper Great Lakes, providing more synoptic
forcing for ascent into Monday morning. In addition to the precip,
continued strong gradient forces will linger over the region with an
850mb airmass cooling to near -1C. This will support another day of
stronger winds over the forecast area, but from the west. The
strongest winds will remain in the Keweenaw and eastern UP Lakeshore
communities. The gradient relaxes Monday night, allowing winds to
settle.


High pressure ridging emanating from a high over the Southeast will
keep the region dry through Tuesday afternoon. By then medium range
guidance continues to point to a progressive, quasi-zonal flow
pattern developing across the northern CONUS by then, allowing a
shortwave and surface low to move through the Upper Great Lakes.
There`s still questions about the exact placement of this low, with
large differences noted among the various deterministic guidance
packages. Should this system impact the forecast area, rain looks to
diminish Wednesday into Wednesday night. From there, another wave
looks to move into the region late Thursday/Friday. Eyes then fall
to the late weekend period, when a vigorous wave has the potential
to bring snow and wind impacts to the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 131 AM EDT Sun Nov 2 2025

VFR conditions will be the dominant flight category of this TAF
period, save for some transient FG early in the period. As a
cold front approaches the area tomorrow, southwest winds will
ramp up significantly, with wind gusts expected to exceed 30 kt
at all sites in the afternoon hours. There will also be a LLWS
threat as a FL040 to FL060 winds increase to near 60 kt. Chances
of -SHRA are around 55 percent for SAW, but closer to 30
percent at CMX and IWD.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

Impactful marine weather remains in the forecast through Monday as a
deep low pressure traverses east across the Canadian Prairie today,
reaching northern Ontario tonight, and continuing NE into Quebec
Monday. This allows a strong 40-50kt LLJ to move over Lake Superior
today through Monday. Guidance continues to suggest the strong
pressure gradient and low level mixing will be able to support these
winds near the surface. The current Gale Warnings remain for the
entire lake this afternoon through Monday. Latest NBM guidance has
increased probabilities for Storm force gusts >47 kts ~30-60% chance
for between Isle Royale and the Keweenaw Peninsula. Still, given the
warm air advection aloft likely limiting mixing depth over the lake,
opted not go higher than Gales in this forecast. Should stronger
winds be realized, a short-fused upgrade to Storm Warnings may be
warranted. Cold front will swing west to east through the lake
Sunday night, enabling winds to shift to westerlies and continue
blowing at least 35-40kts into Monday night.

Winds settle back below 25 kt on Tuesday, with waves responding
accordingly in the wake of the system. Additional systems mid week
and late week will bring additional chances for headlines in the
long term.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Monday for
     MIZ001-003.

  Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight
     for MIZ005.

Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning from 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ this morning to 5 PM EST
     /4 PM CST/ Monday for LSZ162.

  Gale Warning from 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ this morning to 1 AM EST
     /midnight CST/ Monday for LSZ240-241.

  Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Tuesday for
     LSZ242>244.

  Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Tuesday for
     LSZ245>251-265>267.

  Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 4 AM EST Tuesday for
     LSZ263-264.

Lake Michigan...
  Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Monday for
     LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...BW