845
FXUS63 KMQT 300700
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
300 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain exits the eastern UP this morning, yielding another warm and
dry day with temperatures in the 70s.

- Rain chances have shifted further south away from most of the area
through Thursday.

- Breezy conditions are expected as winds shift out of the west-
northwest Thursday and Friday. Gusts of 30+ mph are likely near Lake
Superior from the Keweenaw east to Whitefish Point.

- Temperatures drop back into the 60s on Thursday and cool to near
seasonal normal values in the upper 50s to low 60s through the
weekend. Frost and freeze concerns are likely from Thursday night
onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Early morning radar shows a batch of welcome rain showers moving
through the eastern half of the UP on the nose of a 850 mb jet as a
weak shortwave trough skirts the Upper Great Lakes ahead of large
scale troughing centered upstream over central Canada. Rainfall
amounts have generally been light overnight, with a few spots near
the Wisconsin border approaching a quarter inch but most other
locations generally limited to a tenth of an inch or less. In terms
of the large scale pattern, RAP analysis and water vapor imagery
reveal split flow over North America, with the aforementioned low
over Canada and a strong surface reflection approaching Hudson Bay
while a cutoff low remains over the Desert Southwest. The bulk of
the UP will stay dry between these two features today once the
current rainfall exits to the east later this morning. This will set
the stage for another warm and pleasant fall day as a weak warm air
advection regime supports highs in the mid 70s across much of the
area again today, with morning clouds giving way to a few breaks of
sunshine by the afternoon.

Thursday looks to remain dry over the UP as a low associated with
the southern stream energy spins up over the Plains and lifts
northeast towards the Great Lakes. The vast majority of guidance
keeps any rain associated with this system well to the south over
Wisconsin and Lower Michigan, with low end chances for any
measurable precip generally confined to areas along the Lake
Michigan shoreline. Temperatures look to run about 8-10 degrees
cooler across the area on Thursday with the passage a cold front.
This will also bring breezy conditions near Lake Superior as winds
shift west-northwesterly behind the front, bringing gusts of 30+ mph
from the Keweenaw eastward to Whitefish Point. Breezy conditions
persist into Friday as temperatures continue to moderate into the
upper 50s to low 60s. Expect some chilly nights beginning Thursday
night as strong high pressure builds into the region from the
northern Plains and brings clearing skies and more optimal
radiational cooling processes. Will likely be dealing with some
renewed frost/freeze concerns into the weekend as lows dip near or
even below freezing in a few interior locations. A weak clipper type
system then brings additional precipitation chances to the area late
Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 127 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Showers continue progressing east over the UP early this morning
with widespread deteriorating conditions to follow ahead of sunrise.
IFR CIGS are expected at all sites with patchy MVFR VIS at SAW.
There only is a 25% chance for MVFR vis at IWD, so mention was left
out. Drier air working in behind the front helps improve conditions
to VFR mid to late morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Lake Superior: A 30-40 kt low level jet is bringing south-southwest
winds of 20-25 kt to eastern portions of Lake Superior this morning,
supporting a few small craft headlines through later this morning in
the nearshore waters east of Marquette. Winds drop below 20 kt by
this afternoon as the system exits to the east. Winds shift west-
northwesterly tonight into Thursday behind a passing cold front, and
although gale probabilities have dwindled to around 15% on Thursday,
this still should provide another round of solid 20-25 kt winds and
small craft headlines across a wide swath of the lake given cold air
advection and strong pressure rises as high pressure builds in from
the west behind the front. Northwest winds remain gusty into Friday,
with gale chances increasing to 25-40% and wave heights building to 3-
6 ft over the east half of the lake. Winds go light Friday night
into early Saturday with the increasing influence of surface high
pressure, but another clipper low arriving late in the weekend
brings another round of stronger winds into Sunday.

Northern Green Bay and northwestern Lake Michigan: A weak system
passing to the north and an associated 30-40 kt low level jet will
maintain south-southwest winds of 20-25 kt and small craft headlines
for the Bay of Green Bay and adjacent northern waters of Lake
Michigan today. Winds slacken tonight into early THursday and then
eventually turn northwesterly around 15-20 kt behind a passing cold
front, remaining in that range through Friday. Lighter winds with
high pressure on Saturday give way to 15 kt southerlies on Sunday
with the arrival of a clipper low to the north over Lake Superior.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for MIZ014.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...77
MARINE...CB