166
FXUS63 KMQT 051804
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
104 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers will become more widespread this morning with
additional amounts up to 0.25 inches across the north.

- Lake enhanced rain transitions to lake effect and upslope driven
snow over the north to northeast wind precipitation belts tonight
into tomorrow.

- Light snow accumulations are becoming increasingly likely tonight
through tomorrow morning with isolated amounts >1" possible (50-80%
chance) in areas of high terrain in the west and central UP.

- A Gale Warning is now in effect for northerly gales of 35 to 45
knots across most of Lake Superior today. Strongest winds over the
central waters.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 408 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

Latest radar mosaic early this morning has widespread showers across
much of the U.P. as a low pressure system now rotates directly over
the U.P. As this parent low integrates into a descending trough from
Canada through the course of the day, rain showers will become most
concentrated over northern portions of the U.P. where an additional
0.25" of accumulation is possible. Following this wave will be, yet,
another secondary shortwave in the upper flow that will help
reinforce CAA into the region through early tomorrow. This surge of
cold air will transition the lake enhanced rain to lake effect snow
starting across the western portions of the U.P. late this
afternoon/evening where temperatures will be in the low to mid 30s.
Anticipate a rain/snow mix period through the evening hours before
that transition to pure lake effect snow after Fri 06Z. Across the
east, it will be tougher for that rain to snow transition, where
daytime surface temperatures will run almost 10 degrees higher than
the western half. Therefore, it is very possible that the eastern
counties only reach a rain/snow mix by tomorrow morning, whereas the
Michigamme Highlands could see their first measurable snowfall of
the season in the 1-2 inch range. While thermodynamic profiles show
ample low level moisture, lake inversions will have a tough time
reaching the DGZ, thus preventing any big snowfall totals. Also
accompanying the CAA and precipitation will be strong NNE winds
later this morning with widespread 35 to 45 mph winds across the
northern Keweenaw and shorelines of Lake Superior. Look for these to
eventually taper off from west to east tomorrow morning.

Further out, drier weather will return for the weekend as high
pressure strengthens over the area, and once again there will be a
slight warmup into the 50s from Sunday through Tuesday. This will be
after a brief dip in high temperatures into the upper 30s/low 40s
tomorrow and widespread 40s on Saturday. Meanwhile, though,
overnight lows will dip into the 20s through the extended period
(and even as low as the teens across the interior west tomorrow
night).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 103 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

Blustery conditions ongoing across Upper Michigan this afternoon
with strong north winds and steady rain showers occasionally mixing
with snow on the back side of a low pressure system departing east
of Lake Superior. Prevailing conditions have improved to MVFR at
KIWD and KCMX as the low shifts to the east, but intermittent bouts
of IFR will remain possible into this evening as heavier showers
pass through the terminals. Conditions are more likely to remain IFR
through the period at KSAW. Shower activity gradually winds down
from west to east overnight, potentially lingering at KSAW until
after 12z Fri. Snow will continue to mix in with rain at times, but
with minimal impact and no accumulation expected. North winds
gusting to 20-25 kt at KIWD and 30-35 kt at KCMX and KSAW will
diminish from west to east overnight as high pressure builds into
the region for Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 451 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

Lake Superior: Gale Warnings remain in effect this morning through
early tomorrow morning as strong pressure rises and strong cold
air advection bring a sharp increase in winds. N to NNE winds
increase to gales of 35-45 kts in the western lake between Isle
Royale and the Keweenaw early this morning. These gales
transition across the central and eastern lake through the
morning to early afternoon hours, building significant wave
heights upwards of 15 ft. Building high pressure diminishes
winds and waves from west to east overnight through tomorrow
morning.

Northern Lake Michigan and northern Bay of Green Bay: Breezy
southerlies between 20-25 kts will be the rule through this morning
before a sharp cold front veers winds to the north, increasing gusts
between 25-35 kts by the afternoon. A brief Gale Warning remains in
effect for our Green Bay and N Lake Michigan zones between 18z
Thursday through 03z Friday. Gales fall off overnight becoming winds
20-30 kts through early tomorrow.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for LSZ243-244-264.

  Gale Warning until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for LSZ241-
     242-263.

  Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for LSZ245>250-265-266.

  Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for LSZ251-267.

Lake Michigan...
  Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TDUD
AVIATION...CB
MARINE...BW/TDUD