208
FXUS63 KMQT 080843
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
343 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for Southern
  Schoolcraft and Luce counties where lake effect snow
  transitioning to system snow will bring 3-8" tonight through
  Tuesday morning. Highest amounts are expected closer to the
  Chippewa/Mackinac county borders.

- Two rounds of widespread light snow are expected early this
  week, the first late tonight through early Tuesday, and the
  second late Tuesday through Wednesday morning.

- Cooler than normal temperatures continue through this week and
  beyond. Low temperatures in the single digits to near zero are
  possible late this week into this upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

Early morning GOES satellite imagery shows areas of clearing across
the UP as ridging aloft and surface high pressure atop WI has kicked
LES to the WNW snow belts. Light LES in the far eastern UP counties,
mainly N Luce and Chippewa, may accumulate another inch at best
before backing SW winds fully pushing bands offshore through the
morning hours. Efficient radiational cooling has taken place across
the central and western UP where observations at the time of writing
this discussion have fallen well below zero, some, including our
office here in Negaunee Township, reaching as low as -10 to -15F.
Our low of -14F breaks the daily record low of -13F for December
8th. Elsewhere, single digit to teens temps are found under cloud
cover or closer to the lakeshores, where the "warm" ~40F waters are
keeping milder conditions.

Mostly quiet weather remains in place through this afternoon as SW
flow ahead of an approaching clipper helps bring daytime temps into
the upper teens and low 20s. Increased SW fetch across northern Lake
Michigan will then support a developing lake effect snow band into
the eastern UP this evening. CAM guidance continue to highlight
modest convergence into southeastern Schoolcraft and Luce counties
with the QPF bullseye moreso planted along the county borders with
Chip/Mack. Underneath this band, hazardous travel conditions may be
seen as 00z HREF probability suggests 60-80% chance for snowfall
rates >0.5/hr and winds gusts 25-30 mph. As the clipper shortwave
draws nearer to the UP, widespread system snow will then begin to
spread west to east late tonight into early Tuesday, grazing the UP
with a widespread 1-3". Given the quick hitting nature of the
clipper, confidence in heavy snow >3" is rather low (<30% chance),
however, if sneaky fgen banding combined with moderate to high SLRs
15-20:1 can linger in the west and central UP, locally higher
amounts >3" may be realized. In the east, SW flow and lake
enhancement from Lake Michigan will make reaching amounts >3" a bit
easier. Have opted to hoist a Winter Weather Advisory for S
Schoolcraft and Luce counties from this evening through Tuesday
morning for amounts between 3-8" as lake effect transitions to
system/lake enhanced snow. The highest amounts will likely seen
closer to the Chip/Mack borders by Tuesday morning.

A quick reprieve in snow is expected Tuesday morning/afternoon aside
from some light lake effect snow showers across the NW wind
snowbelt. The next clipper shortwave quickly follows late Tuesday
through Wednesday morning, this one associated with a sharper upper
level wave and a deeper surface low pressure reflection. Model
consensus, while not completely in line yet, has come into better
agreement on the track of this clipper, sliding it through central
WI down into lesser MI. With this track, the heaviest snowfall axis
is displaced south of the UP, providing another round of 1-3" for
us. Ensemble probabilities for amounts >3" by Sunday morning
continue to highlight 30-50% along the WI/UP border. While snowfall
amounts look to remain on the lower end across the northern tier of
the UP, a sharp increase in northerly winds 30-40 mph and lake
effect/enhanced snow may make for some travel hazards.

Light lake effect for the N to NW wind snowbelts is likely to
continue through the latter half of this week and coming weekend.
Operational models and their ensemble counterparts hint at a
stronger clipper coming through the Great Lakes next weekend, but
diverge on its overall progression, timing, and strength. The colder
than normal pattern remains in place through seemingly the rest of
the month!

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1213 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

MVFR conditions continue to linger at CMX early this morning, but
there should be improvement to VFR closer to daybreak. Elsewhere,
VFR is prevailing at IWD and SAW and will continue to until snow
moves in this evening. At that point, conditions will begin their
deterioration to MVFR again and eventually IFR late in the TAF
period as snow showers intensify at all TAF sites. In addition,
southwest winds will increase with gusts up to 20 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 342 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

W to NW winds 15-25 kts back to the SW today ahead of an approaching
clipper. SW winds will increase to 25-30 kts with occasional gales
to 35 kts possible. Guidance continues to be on the fence on
widespread gale potential for eastern Lake Superior tonight through
Tuesday morning with various ensemble probability ranging from only
20% to 80%. Model soundings only support mixing down occasional
gales, thus we are opting to cancel the ongoing Gale Watch. Should
gales be realized a short fused headline may be needed. Winds fall
below 25 kts as the system pulls away late Tuesday. Lighter winds
don`t last long as a second stronger clipper is set to move across
Wisconsin through Wednesday, quickly increasing NE to N winds
between 25-30 kts early Wednesday morning. Here, the chance for
gales to 35 kts sits at around 50%. Heavy to moderate freezing spray
is possible as wave heights grow 5-10 feet. Behind this departing
system Wednesday afternoon, N to NW winds fall to 25 kts or less and
remain that way through the mid to late week. Guidance is hinting at
the return of stronger winds next weekend and will continue to be
monitored.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
     Tuesday for MIZ007-014.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...BW