772
FXUS63 KMQT 291734
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
134 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and pleasant fall weather with temperatures in the 70s
  continues the rest of this afternoon into Wednesday.

- Rain chances return to the area tonight, with the best chances
  over the south central and eastern U.P. Rain chances have
  shifted further south away from most of the area for the rest
  of the mid-week.

- Marginal (~35 knot) west-northwest gales are now unlikely
  (~15% chance) along the southern Lake Superior shoreline from
  the Keweenaw to Whitefish Point on Thursday. Could see breezy
  conditions over the adjacent land areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 133 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Upper-level clouds continue to infiltrate the U.P. from the west via
troughing moving in from two deep lows today, with one passing
through northern Canada towards Hudson Bay and the other over the
Desert Southwest lifting off of the Southern Rockies on Wednesday.
While a shortwave low riding along the aforementioned Canadian low`s
cold front is bringing rain showers over NE MN and northern WI,
expect light rainfall to eventually make its way into the western
U.P. by late this afternoon/early this evening as the shortwave
continues northeastward towards Hudson Bay and the front progs east
while weakening. With some subtle WAA being seen ahead of the cold
front today, temperatures have once again become mild and pleasant
like they have been over the past several days; expect highs
generally in the lower to mid 70s across the U.P. by the mid-
afternoon hours even despite the cloud cover. As the shortwave
nudges by us and the cold front moves overhead tonight, expect the
rain chances to move through the entire U.P. save for maybe the far
east by the Soo. However, given the split flow at the synoptic
level, rainfall amounts look to be light tonight, with most of the
area looking to get only a tenth of an inch if even that. That being
said, with some of the better forcing and training further down into
the south central (as the cold front stalls out), we could see over
a quarter inch of rainfall in Menominee County; as of the time of
this writing, the NBM shows a general 40 to 75% chance that the U.P.
(except the south central) will receive over a tenth of an inch of
rainfall between this evening and the end of the day Wednesday,
whereas the south central has a 50 to 90% chance of exceeding a
quarter inch (highest by the city of Menominee). While there may be
some training of light rain over the south central and east
Wednesday into Thursday, guidance continues to slide the
precipitation further to the south and east, which means we can
expect almost the entirety U.P. to stay dry now for the mid-week.

Behind the precipitation on Wednesday, with guidance now suggesting
a break between the stalled out cold front and a second cold front
moving through on Thursday, we can expect to see warm temperatures
with highs in the 70s and pleasant (but cloudy) Fall weather again
across the U.P. on Wednesday as another round of WAA works across
the area ahead of the arrival of the second cold front. While the
second cold front brings cooler/more-normal Fall-like temperatures
with it from Thursday onwards, again, expect the area to (most
likely) remain dry. In addition, the projected winds behind the cold
front on Thursday are now lower than what they were previously
forecasted to be; only west-northwest wind gusts up to around 30 mph
are now expected along the Lake Superior shoreline.

Moving into late this week through this weekend, expect high
pressure ridging to develop over the Northern Plains before passing
by the Great Lakes Friday night and Saturday. This should bring high
temperatures into the 50s and 60s while lows during the overnight
hours drop down into the 30s to potentially 20s in spots over the
interior areas. Given the lack of cloud cover expected from the high
pressure ridging, we could see widespread frost develop during the
overnight hours pre-dawn Friday morning and especially Friday night.
Behind this stretch of clearer skies, we could see rain showers
return via a Clipper skirting through the Upper Midwest into
northern Ontario late Saturday into Sunday; with 850mb temperatures
dropping down to -3 to -5C behind the Clipper, I wouldn`t be
surprised if some lake effect drizzle/rain showers developed over
the northwest wind belts behind it on Sunday. That being said, the
lake effect rain showers may not last all that long as medium range
guidance shows more shortwave ridging moving into the area as soon
as Sunday afternoon, remaining over the Upper Great Lakes through
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 112 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the afternoon with deteriorating
conditions this evening and overnight. Breezy southerly winds and a
slug of deep, moist air will work through the area tonight, just
ahead of a cold front that will sweep across the U.P. from west to
east. Expect scattered showers to increase in coverage during the
evening over the western U.P. and shift east into the central U.P.
late tonight. MVFR conditions will accompany the showers though
couldn`t rule our brief periods of lower categories in heavier
showers. Given the scattered nature of the showers kept the mention
to mainly TEMPO and PROB30. Cigs will drop along and behind the
front to IFR for the early morning hours, then drier air will work
into the area from the west bringing improving conditions to VFR by
mid-morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 133 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Lake Superior: As a shortwave low lifts from the Northern Plains
towards northern Ontario tonight along a cold front, expect a 30 to
40 kt LLJ at 850mb to bring southerly winds of 20 to 25 kts over the
lake this afternoon through tonight, with the winds becoming
southwesterly over the west half late tonight. However, once this
front stalls out southeast of the lake, expect winds to dwindle down
to 20 kts or less again for a short while on Wednesday morning
before slightly accelerating to 20 to 25 kts from the southwest
between Isle Royale and Thunder Bay as well as Isle Royale and the
Keweenaw Wednesday afternoon. While we can expect a second lull in
the winds Wednesday evening, expect a dry cold front pushing through
early on Thursday to bring west-northwest winds of 20 to 30 kts
across the lake behind it; with guidance trending the cold front
weaker, gale chances continue to decrease as the NBM now only holds
around a 15% chance for marginal west-northwest gales along the
southern shore from the Keweenaw to Whitefish Point on Thursday.
With high pressure ridging returning late this week, expect the
northwesterly winds to weaken to 20 to 25 kts Thursday night,
although perhaps gusting up to 20 to 30 kts once again on Friday
before quieting down to 20 kts or less Friday night. While the light
winds look to remain over Lake Superior on Saturday, with a Clipper
low looking to move through the area late Saturday into Sunday, we
could see west to northwest winds of 20 to 30 kts return to Lake
Superior behind the low on Sunday.

Northern Green Bay and northwestern Lake Michigan: South winds of 15
to 20 kts this afternoon become southwesterly winds of 20 to 30 kts
tonight into Wednesday as a cold front approaches and eventually
stalls out over or just southeast of the area today through
Wednesday. Expect the southwesterly winds to slightly weaken to 20
to 25 kts throughout the day on Wednesday, eventually dropping to 15
kts or less Wednesday night. While a second cold front looks to drop
through the area on Thursday, with the better temperature advection
and height rises further north, expect the winds to remain light at
around 15 kts or less still Thursday and Thursday night. We could
gust up to 20 kts from the northwest on Friday, but confidence on
that happening remains low as high pressure ridging begins to move
in from the Northern Plains. Light winds of 15 kts or less look to
continue through the first half of the weekend, until a Clipper
passes by the Upper Great Lakes on Sunday, bringing northwest winds
of 15 to 25 kts behind it.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...NL
MARINE...TAP