358
FXUS63 KMQT 290847
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
347 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A low pressure system tracking through Lower Michigan late today
into Sunday will bring widespread light snow to the U.P. A period of
moderate snowfall (rates up to 0.5 in/hr) is expected along Lake
Michigan and over the higher elevations of the central and western
U.P. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for both the system
snow and the lake effect snow.

- Lake effect snow showers persist along with cool overnight lows
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

Early this morning satellite and model analysis showed an upper
level in the lee of the Rockies with a 1004mb surface low near the
Oklahoma Panhandle and southwest Kansas. Downstream of the trough,
over the U.P, winds were becoming light with a very weak pressure
gradient over the area under a somewhat diffluent flow. Lake effect
snow showers continued to push off Lake Superior, especially over
the eastern U.P. Temperatures had fallen into the teens away from
the Lake Superior shoreline.

The main forecast concern through the weekend is an approaching
storm system that will bring heavy snow to parts of WI, with light
to moderate snow over the U.P. For the U.P generally light snow is
expected with moderate snow at times for locations along Lake
Michigan in higher terrain of the central and western U.P where
upslope flow and lake effect will help boost snow amounts. The most
likely scenario is 2-4" of snowfall for much of the U.P with 4-7"
over the higher terrain and along Lake Michigan. Have expanded the
winter headlines to cover the western U.P through Sunday morning.

Through this morning expecting the winds to become easterly across
the area. As this happens lake effect snow showers will push
offshore with CAMs showing banding orientating itself east to west
with embedded mesolow features. As we get into the afternoon lake
effect snow showers will begin to push across the Keweenaw from the
east and off Lake Michigan into Menominee and Delta counties.
Isentropic ascent will also increase as a mid level warm front
pushes into the area resulting in widespread light snow spreading
from south to north through the afternoon.

Snow will increase in intensity for Menominee and Delta counties
this evening with moderate snowfall rates of 0.5 in/hr where lake
enhancement is expected. Lake enhancement is also expected late
tonight over the western U.P with 0.5 in/hr snowfall rates as a
shoreline parallel lake effect snow band will push onshore. Lake
enhancement with a period of moderate snowfall rates will also
develop late tonight over the higher elevations of the central U.P
as winds turn northeasterly resulting in upslope flow. By morning
winds will start a transition to the northwest from west to east.
Strong convergence over the central portion of the lake could bring
a period of moderate to briefly heavy lake effect snow into
Marquette and Alger Counties during the early to mid morning hours.
By afternoon lake effect snow shifts into the northwest wind
snowbelts but should progressively become lighter as moisture
profiles become drier. Light lake effect snow showers will
continue through Sunday night.

Uncertainty grows into next week as high pressure skirts around the
Great Lakes in the wake of the low and then one or more clipper lows
pass near the area next week, though ensembles are highly spread on
the track, intensity, and timing of such a feature. With Lake
Superior around 5 C, 850mb temperatures of around -10 C should all
but guarantee at least some presence of LES, and the LREF suggests
50-90% chances of that temperature or cooler, even with periods of
SW flow next week. Cooler than normal temperatures will prevail at
the surface as well, especially overnight, where the NBM calls for
single-digit lows for many interior UP locations, including some
lows near 0 (though raw, un-"bias corrected" model guidance would
suggest warmer temperatures).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

Observations from around the area show mainly VFR conditions across
Upper Michigan this evening with the exception of some stubborn MVFR
cigs at KIWD as snow showers linger over the western UP, possibly
due to the presence of a well defined mesolow noted over western
Lake Superior on radar imagery. Expect showers to continue to
diminish in coverage over the next few hours, yielding primarily VFR
cigs between FL035-045 at the terminals tonight into Saturday
morning. Cigs trend back downward towards MVFR 15-18z Sat ahead a
low pressure system moving towards Lower Michigan, with snow
spreading back into the terminals from the south and bringing low
end MVFR/IFR conditions 20-23z Sat. Conditions deteriorate further
Sat night to IFR/LIFR as snow intensifies.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 346 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

A low pressure will move from the Southern Plains this morning to
the southern Lake Michigan by early Sunday morning. This will result
in a tightening pressure gradient and winds becoming easterly this
afternoon up to around 20kt. As the low gets closer this evening
into tonight northeast winds will pick up to 25-30 kt in the west
and up to 25kt in the east. Winds will turn northerly on Sunday
morning with gales to 35kt developing in the central part of the
lake. Winds become northwesterly by Sunday afternoon with gales to
40kt over the eastern half of the lake, generally along and east of
the Keweenaw. From there, uncertainty grows as high pressure to the
south of the lake is contrasted by weaker low pressures to the
north, with each potential feature bringing the potential for gusty
winds and perhaps gales (up to 30 percent chance, highest Monday and
Wednesday PM), but predictability is low at this time.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening
     to 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Sunday for MIZ001>006-009-084.

  Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST
     Sunday for MIZ007-014-085.

  Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM EST /noon CST/ this
     afternoon to 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Sunday for MIZ010>013.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GS/NL
AVIATION...CB
MARINE...GS/NL