085
FXUS63 KMQT 031117
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
717 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures nearly seasonal (mid 50s to mid 60s) through
  the weekend into Monday.

- A Clipper low passing through the region this weekend brings
  additional light rain chances this afternoon into early
  Sunday. Winds behind the cold front will be gusty, with a
  30-60% chance of reaching gale conditions over mainly eastern
  Lake Superior.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

With observing platforms showing temperatures having already dropped
into the 30s across much of the interior U.P. early this morning,
and with some spots already getting as low as the mid-20s, a
widespread frost/freeze is being realized this morning as high
pressure ridging skirting overhead is creating mostly clear skies.
Therefore, the current Freeze Warning for all but Keweenaw County
(and the Frost Advisories over the far east) will expire at 10 AM
EDT this morning as it will take a couple of hours of sunshine to
warm things up at the sfc. With a Clipper still slated to move
towards the area today, expect cloud cover to gradually increase
from west to east throughout the daylight hours. This, in
conjunction with the antecedent cooler air aloft, will keep highs
mainly in the mid to upper 50s, although some spots may be able to
sneak to or just above 60. While some guidance like the NAM suite
has rainfall starting as early as late this morning to early this
afternoon over the west half, thinking the antecedent dry air in the
lower levels may take more time to be overcome due to the sfc
ridging moving overhead early this morning (that escapes to the east
later today). That being said, as the atmospheric profile moistens
in the lower levels by the mid to late afternoon hours from west to
east across the Yoop, expect to see light rainfall falling across
most of the area by the time the sun sets this evening. While not
much rainfall is expected with the Clipper`s passage, thankfully the
rainfall amounts have trended ever-so-slightly upwards, with most of
the area seeing a 30 to 60% chance of seeing more than a quarter
inch of rainfall between this evening and Sunday evening. However,
rainfall amounts could be higher over the higher terrain of
Marquette County as the latest REFS shows chances of over a quarter
inch of rainfall at around 60 to 85%, whereas the `Golden Triangle`
region from Iron Mountain, Escanaba, and Menominee only as a 25%
chance or less of that happening (city of Menominee near 0%).

While we can expect some breezy conditions today with winds
increasing from the south to 20 to 25 mph by this evening, expect
gustier northwest winds behind the Clipper low on Sunday; northwest
wind gusts of 30 to even occasionally 40 mph could be seen over the
Keweenaw and along the Lake Superior shoreline east of Marquette
behind the low. While the delta-Ts and strong winds over Lake
Superior may support a very quick burst of post-frontpa light rain
showers on Sunday, lake effect rain/drizzle shower chances don`t
appear to impact the area until Sunday night as another round of
reinforcing CAA drops down into the region. The incoming Clipper and
CAA behind it should keep temperatures fairly normal the rest of
today through Monday, with highs generally being in the 50s to lower
60s.

Moving into the rest of next week, expect a slight warm up by the
mid-week as another Clipper system passing through northern Ontario
draws in a little bit of WAA. Thus, expect highs to return to the
60s with some spots getting up to around 70 by Tuesday and
Wednesday. However, with guidance mostly keeping the area dry during
the mid-week with the Clipper`s passage, this may lead to fire
weather concerns given the drought conditions across the area, the
strong winds ahead of and behind the Clipper`s passage, and the
falling dead leaves offering another sfc fuel source for fire to
work with. With the jet stream staying nearly overhead as we head
into late next week, we could see temperatures return to near normal
again before rising above normal yet again to end the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 713 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

VFR prevails this morning as mid to high level clouds return
ahead of an approaching shortwave. Rain shower chances increase
from west to east from ~18z this afternoon. Ceilings eventually
fall to MVFR/IFR late tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 145 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Lake Superior: Light winds of 20 kts or less early this morning give
way to increasing southerly winds today as a Clipper low approaches
from the west, eventually skirting by the northern lakeshore
tonight. Before the Clipper passes, expect the southerly winds to
reach 20 to 30 kts across the lake this evening, with a few gale
force gusts up to 35 kts possible over the open eastern lake (up to
40% chance). Behind the Clipper late tonight, expect the winds to
veer west and eventually northwest by Sunday, with gales up to 35
kts possible over the east half (up to a 60% chance); therefore a
Gale Watch is in effect for Sunday across the eastern lake. While
another shot of CAA is looking to keep winds elevated Sunday night
to mainly 20 to 30 kts (with a few gale force gusts up to 35 kts
possible over the eastern lake again), expect the winds to die down
to 20 kts or less again by Monday as high pressure ridging rolls
back through the area. Another Clipper that passes by to the north
looks to bring southerly winds of 20 to 25 kts back across the lake
late Tuesday. Once the cold front passes early Wednesday, we could
see westerly winds of 20 to 30 kts return over the lake.

Northern Green Bay and northwestern Lake Michigan: Light winds of 15
kts or less this morning increase from the south later today as a
Clipper low approaches the Upper Great Lakes. Ahead of the Clipper
touching the north shore of Lake Superior tonight, expect the zenith
of southerly winds to be 20 to 25 kts this evening, with some
southwesterly wind gusts up to 30 kts being possible late tonight as
the winds start to veer with time. Behind the Clipper, expect west
and eventually northwest winds on Sunday to pick up to around 20 to
25 kts; with another reinforcing shot of CAA working through the
Upper Great Lakes Sunday night, expect the higher wind speeds to
remain until high pressure moving in on Monday slackens winds back
down to 15 kts or less late in the day. A second Clipper low moving
through northern Ontario on Tuesday does look to increase winds from
the south and southwest 25 to 30 kts by late in the day, with some
gales up to 35 kts not completely out of the realm of possibility
(up to 20% chance). However, as the winds veer with time Tuesday
night into Wednesday to the west, expect them to slowly die down,
eventually becoming 15 kts or less again by Wednesday evening.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for
     MIZ002>007-009>014-084-085.

Lake Superior...
  Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
     LSZ248>251-265>267.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...TAP