Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FNUS73 KMQT 220047
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Spot Forecast for Mt Homer Fire...DNR
National Weather Service Marquette MI
847 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0700 EDT on August 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Low pressure will drop south from northern Ontario and move to
eastern Ontario through the weekend. This will bring an additional cold
front through the UP Saturday night, keeping the burn area under
northwest winds. Winds will gust to 20 mph on Saturday afternoon
as mixing deepens. Winds will remain gusty Saturday night, up to 25 mph,
as the cold front brings reinforcing cooler air into the area.
Isolated showers will be possible on early Saturday morning and again in
the afternoon, along with a slight chance for thunder. Strong storms are
not expected. Dry weather is expected for Saturday night into Sunday.


.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the morning. Slight
                    chance of thunderstorms early in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Chance of thunder...23 percent.
Temperature.........56 at forecast start...Max 71.
RH..................100 percent at forecast start...Min 67 percent.
Dewpoint............58 increasing to 60 in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
33-foot winds.......Winds west at 10 mph at forecast
                    start...otherwise Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph
                    with gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms early in the afternoon.
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds 8 to 11 mph with gusts to 20 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL at forecast start...otherwise
                    400-2100 ft AGL increasing to 2500-3300 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Ventilation index...Poor (49) at forecast start. Max...good (461.0)
                    increasing to good to excellent (541.0-620.0)
                    late in the afternoon.
Rainfall amount.....0.03 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......9.2 increasing to 10 late in the morning, then
                    decreasing to 8.2 early in the afternoon
                    decreasing to 5.6 early in the afternoon
                    increasing to 8.1.

TIME (EDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........60  36  42  42  39  37  45  43  43  46  42
Weather cov.....    SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                            SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).0   20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  10  10
Chc of thdr (%).0   10  10  10  10  10  10  20  20  10  10
Temp............56  58  60  64  65  66  67  68  69  70  69
Dewpoint........56  58  60  62  61  61  60  60  60  60  58
RH..............100 99  99  94  88  83  79  74  73  70  69
33 ft wind dir..W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
33 ft wind spd..10  10  12  12  12  13  13  13  15  15  15
20 ft wind dir..W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 ft wind spd..8   8   10  10  10  10  10  10  11  11  11
Wind gust.......16  16  17  17  17  18  18  18  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.6 1.2 1.6 2.1 2.5 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.0
VIndx kt-ft/100.5   6   16  20  29  41  46  57  62  59  54
Ceiling (kft)...9.2 9.2 10  10  12  10  8.2 5.6 8.1 8.8 8.6

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (45-55 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Chance of thunder...7 percent.
Temperature.........Min 51.
RH..................Max 100 percent.
Dewpoint............56 decreasing to 52 after 3 am.
33-foot winds.......Northwest winds 12 to 13 mph with gusts to
                    around 25 mph.
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with gusts to
                    around 20 mph.
Mixing height.......2500-3200 ft AGL decreasing to 400-1200 ft AGL
                    early in the evening.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (80.0-573.0) decreasing to poor to
                    fair (53.0-142.0) late in the evening.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......11 increasing to 15 early in the evening, then
                    increasing to 19 late in the evening decreasing
                    to 16 overnight decreasing to 14 decreasing to
                    11 after 3 am decreasing to 7.9 decreasing to
                    5.1 early in the morning.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........25  23  28  27  31  39  46  30  27  58  62  50
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   10  10  10  0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   10  10  10  0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............69  69  67  62  59  58  56  56  55  55  53  52
Dewpoint........58  57  57  58  56  56  55  55  54  53  53  52
RH..............69  67  72  87  91  95  96  97  96  95  99  99
33 ft wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N
33 ft wind spd..13  13  13  12  12  12  13  13  13  13  13  13
20 ft wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N
20 ft wind spd..10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Wind gust.......19  19  19  18  18  18  18  18  18  18  18  18
Mix hgt (kft)...3.2 2.5 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.5 1.2
VIndx kt-ft/100.57  37  12  10  8   5   6   6   10  6   6   14
Ceiling (kft)...11  13  15  17  19  22  19  16  14  11  7.9 5.1

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    sunny (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Chance of thunder...3 percent.
Temperature.........Max 67.
RH..................Min 60 percent.
Dewpoint............52 rising to 56 mid-morning, then falling to
                    51 in the afternoon.
33-foot winds.......North winds 12 to 14 mph with gusts to around
                    26 mph.
20-foot winds.......North winds 10 to 11 mph with gusts to around
                    21 mph.
Mixing height.......600-2100 ft AGL increasing to 2800-4200 ft AGL
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (69.0-551.0) increasing to
                    excellent (601.0) late in the afternoon.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.


TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........69  74  72  70  62  53  50  47  44  34  25  15
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............51  51  52  56  58  60  61  62  63  64  65  65
Dewpoint........51  51  52  56  56  55  54  53  52  51  51  51
RH..............100 100 99  99  93  82  76  71  65  63  62  60
33 ft wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
33 ft wind spd..14  14  14  14  14  14  14  14  14  13  13  13
20 ft wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 ft wind spd..11  11  11  11  11  11  11  11  11  10  10  10
Wind gust.......20  20  20  21  21  21  20  20  20  18  18  18
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.7 2.1 2.8 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.2 4.2
VIndx kt-ft/100.7   8   30  42  49  50  53  54  55  60  64  63

$$
Forecaster...NJL
Requested by...Avi Shalom
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2620185.0/MQT
.DELDT 08/21/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL GloverP@michigan.gov,shaloma@michigan.gov,BakerS41@michigan.gov